http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6 2017-07-10T05:15:06Z http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27540 Cambodia Economic Update, April 2017 World Bank Group Growth remained strong at 6.9 percent in 2016, after 7.0 percent in 2015. Cambodia's economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace. Construction remained one of the main drivers of growth. Garment exports eased slightly as the country’s external competitiveness was eroded by US dollar appreciation, rising labor costs and increasing competition from other regional low-wage countries. Better weather conditions last year resulted in increased agricultural production, although agricultural commodity prices remain depressed. Real growth is projected to remain strong, expanding at 6.9 percent in 2017 and 2018, partly underpinned by government spending. Downside risks to this outlook include the fallout from further rises in US interest rates, a slower-than-expected economic recovery in Europe, and uncertainties over global trade. Poverty reduction is expected to continue over the next few years, driven mainly by the garment, construction and services sectors, together with increases in remittances. 2017-04-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27538 Does Fiscal Policy Benefit the Poor and Reduce Inequality in Namibia? Namibia Statistics Agency; World Bank Reducing poverty and inequality continues to be an important national priority in Namibia. Vision 2030 – the country’s guiding development strategy – has a subordinate vision that points to several goals: “Poverty is reduced to the minimum, the existing pattern of income-distribution is equitable and disparity is at the minimum.” Vision 2030 is being implemented via a series of five-year National Development Plans, with the current National Development Plan IV (NDP4) covering 2012 through to 2017. NDP4 sets specific numerical targets. One is reducing the incidence of extreme poverty to less than 10 percent of individuals by the end of FY2016/17, measured at the national lower bound poverty line of N$277.54 in 2009/10. This report demonstrates that Namibia’s progressive income tax and generous social spending programs substantially reduce poverty and inequality, but the analysis also underscores the limits of what redistributive fiscal measures alone can accomplish. The economy must ultimately create more jobs for the poorest members of society to change the underlying distribution of what might be called “pre-fiscal” income; i.e., the income before households pay taxes and receive benefits from social programs. This will require structural transformation through greater investment in activities that create employment for unskilled workers and offer the potential for continuous productivity increases. This report aims to measure the effectiveness of these efforts and draws comparisons to the experiences of other countries. It estimates how major taxes and social spending programs affect individual incomes. It then assesses who benefits from or bears the burden of each instrument and by how much. This way, the analysis estimates the contribution of each instrument to reducing the poverty headcount and the Gini coefficient, a standard measure of inequality. The analysis provides evidence that can shape public debates over government spending and the design of social programs. 2017-06-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27535 Bulgaria Financial Sector Assessment Program International Monetary Fund; World Bank This Technical Note (TN) examines the current state of NPLs in Bulgaria and makes recommendations for a strategy to substantially reduce NPLs. These strategy recommendations were developed based on an assessment of the relevant regulatory and supervisory framework and bank practices, including relevant standards and practices for accounting treatments, early warning systems, NPL market development, and collateral valuation. The TN sets forth macroprudential approaches and other components of a sound strategy for NPL reduction, including improvements to loan loss provisioning, income recognition on NPLs, loan write-downs, early warning systems, collateral valuation, risk information for investors, and the NPL market. The NPL management process involves many stakeholders, and their mutual cooperation is important for success. The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), in its capacity as bank supervisor and regulator and as macroprudential authority for banks, will be in the lead position on the implementation of key aspects of the NPL reduction strategy that can achieve progress in the near term. Broader policies to enhance NPL resolution entail other stakeholders, including the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) that would need to engage in the areas of insolvency and collateral enforcement regimes. 2017-06-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27534 Priority Reforms for the Government of Lebanon World Bank This Policy Paper presents a menu of reforms that would enable the country to rapidly and significantly turn the page of inaction and decline and return the country to a prosperous and inclusive development path. To that end, reforms are prioritized over two time horizons—the first 100 days of the new Government and the medium term. The immediate set of reforms suggested aim at establishing a record of achievements and government credibility that is currently sorely absent; without such a clear statement, policymaking effectiveness will be limited. They will also set the platform for the medium term. Failing to move swiftly on reforms would not only damage the credibility of this government, diminish its chances of success during the upcoming elections, but would also increase the already high level of skepticism that the Lebanese people and the international community harbor when it comes to Lebanon's capacity to take on serious and transformational changes. In short, and contrary to some wishes, the international community's engagement and commitment to help Lebanon will hinge heavily on Lebanon helping itself. The seeming end of a long political stalemate offers Lebanon a unique window of opportunity to mitigate impending risks and tackle longstanding and, by now, pressing development challenges. This sense of urgency is reinforced by a palpable deterioration in the quality of public services, institutions, governance and the business climate, to name a few. Macroeconomic risks and institutional lethargy, have also been compounded by the Syrian war, taking a toll on the economy, which, even prior to the regional turmoil, exhibited significant shortfalls in the provision of more and better jobs. Furthermore, the influx of displaced persons from Syria (estimated at over one million by UNHCR as of September 2016) has placed added strain on Lebanon’s education, health, municipal and other sectors, while exacerbating already notable subnational inequalities. This Policy Paper presents a menu of reforms that would enable the country to rapidly and significantly turn the page of inaction and decline and return the country to a prosperous and inclusive development path. To that end, reforms are prioritized over two time horizons—the first 100 days of the new Government and the medium term. The immediate set of reforms suggested aim at establishing a record of achievements and government credibility that is currently sorely absent; without such a clear statement, policymaking effectiveness will be limited. They will also set the platform for the medium term. Failing to move swiftly on reforms would not only damage the credibility of this government, diminish its chances of success during the upcoming elections, but would also increase the already high level of skepticism that the Lebanese people and the international community harbor when it comes to Lebanon's capacity to take on serious and transformational changes. In short, and contrary to some wishes, the international community's engagement and commitment to help Lebanon will hinge heavily on Lebanon helping itself. 2017-05-27T00:00:00Z