Publication: Viet Nam 2045 - Growing Greener: Pathways to a Resilient and Sustainable Future
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2025-06-09
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2025-06-09
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In responding to these critical questions, this report updates and expands on the 2022 Country Climate and Development Report, particularly in the analysis of climate impacts, adaptation, and mitigation strategies. This report provides updated estimates of adaptation costs, incurred through three key and quantifiable impact channels – loss of labor productivity due to heat stress, capital losses in infrastructure, and impacts on agriculture – integrating climate adaptation measures and analyzing their distributional impacts across households. It warns that the macroeconomic cost of these climate impacts could reduce real GDP growth by an average of 0.33 percentage point up to 2050, leaving between 100,000 and 1.1 million people trapped in poverty by 2050. The study also quantifies the escalating economic toll of frequent extreme weather events, underscoring the urgency of resilience-building. For mitigation, the report evaluates the risks of delayed climate action, projecting significant GDP and employment losses in manufacturing exports if decarbonization stalls. It aligns with Viet Nam’s updated sectoral strategies (power, transport, agriculture, industry), measuring their potential to meet national emissions targets and their broader economic trade-offs. It highlights that with current policies, Viet Nam could achieve its NDC target by 2030 – but would still fall short of its 2050 net zero target. Therefore, more needs to be done, including by accelerating the decarbonization of industrial and manufacturing sectors and efforts to create carbon sinks. The analysis emphasizes carbon pricing as a critical policy tool, estimating its emissions reduction potential, fiscal benefits, and socioeconomic impacts to inform equitable climate policymaking. A groundbreaking focus on Viet Nam’s marine economy reveals its untapped potential to drive sustainable growth, including blue carbon ecosystems and offshore renewables, positioning coastal regions as engines of green development.
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“World Bank. 2025. Viet Nam 2045 - Growing Greener: Pathways to a Resilient and Sustainable Future. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43308 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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