Publication: Risk and Uncertainty Analysis
Date
2005-01
ISSN
Published
2005-01
Author(s)
Mackie, Peter
Nellthorp, John
Laird, James
Abstract
One statement that can confidently be
made about any transport project is that the costs and
benefits are uncertain. An important question is 'how
uncertain'? By analyzing the risk and uncertainty which
surrounds the project the probability of a poor outcome can
be assessed. In addition, it is often possible to identify
ways in which the project can be made more robust, and to
ensure that the risks that remain are well managed. Risk and
uncertainty analysis is therefore a standard component in
the project reporting requirements for Bank projects. Risk
and uncertainty analysis also features other in Bank tools,
such as the RED model (see Note Low Volume Rural Roads).
This note reviews the general principles of risk and
uncertainty analysis in transport (Section 1); and outlines
the three principal methods which may be used- sensitivity
analysis (Sectio
Citation
“Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James. 2005. Risk and Uncertainty Analysis. Transport Notes Series; No. TRN 7. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/fbfdef50-ca1d-59cf-8852-10db4ffc1381 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”