Publication: Treatment of Induced Traffic
Date
2005-01
ISSN
Published
2005-01
Author(s)
Mackie, Peter
Nellthorp, John
Laird, James
Abstract
Induced traffic can be an important part
of the economic appraisal particularly when the objective of
the investment is to stimulate economic development;
it's importance, however, is not restricted to such
situations. The omission of induced traffic from the
economic appraisal, or its incorrect treatment, may lead to
either over or underestimations in the user benefits
(consumer surplus) of an investment. In addressing this
issues, this note, considers: the importance of induced
traffic for the economic appraisal (Section 1); what
constitutes induced traffic (Section 2); the situations in
which induced traffic is likely to be relevant (Section 3)
and the manner in which it can be modeled (Section 4) and
user benefits calculated when it is present (Section 5). The
annexes show the relative importance of including the
benefits of induced traffic in the evaluation of an urban
transport project; where the standard "rule of one
half" breaks down in some situations that are often
present in Bank projects, while another shows a numeric
integration technique that can be used as a valid
alternative to the rule of one half in many of these
situations (and coincidently, provides a more precise
evaluation even where the "rule of one half" gives
an acceptable estimation).
Citation
“Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James. 2005. Treatment of Induced Traffic. Transport Notes Series; No. TRN 11. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/f7686ae8-f112-5e00-ae64-f177c940c0cb License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”