Publication: Rwanda : The Impact of Conflict on Growth and Poverty
The human, social and economic costs of Rwanda's Genocide have been staggering. Although the country has made remarkable progress over the last ten years, especially in terms of recovering some of the ground lost on education and health, GDP per capita remains much lower than what it would have been without the Genocide. Per capita GDP today would probably be between 25 and 30 percent higher if the conflict had not taken place. About one fourth of the population in poverty today can be said to be poor as a result of the Genocide.This note provides a measure of the economic cost of the Rwanda Genocide using a technique for the identification and correction of outliers in time series. Specifically, the detection of an outlier in the GDP per capita time series that can be traced to the conflict allows the estimation of the GDP losses associated with the Genocide. Outlier identification and correction, or intervention analysis, is a commonly used procedure when working with time series. In the absence of precise information on the likely effects of a shock, analysts have recently developed and resorted to more refined procedures for outlier identification and correction.
“Lopez, Humberto; Wodon, Quentin; Bannon, Ian. 2004. Rwanda : The Impact of Conflict on Growth and Poverty. Social Development Notes; No. 18. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/e9335b91-1624-594a-a3d5-6033ca0deb1a License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”