Publication: Armenia Demographic Change :
Implications for Social Policy and Poverty
Loading...
Date
2011-07-29
ISSN
Published
2011-07-29
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This note provides an overview of demographic changes and their policy implications in Armenia, with particular reference to the poor. Armenia is currently experiencing a significant aging of the population and decrease in the size of the population, these changes have far-reaching implications. The fertility rate in Armenia has fallen dramatically, from about 4.5 children per woman in the 1950s to 1.74 children per woman at present, which is well under the fertility rate required for population replacement. Armenia's population, which stood at 3.5 million people in 1990, is expected to decrease to 3 million by 2050. This trend, combined with increasing life expectancy, underlies the growing rise in the percentage of elderly persons and the decline in the working-age population. This note provides an overview of the key demographic changes unfolding in Armenia, highlights their linkages with social spending, and draws policy implications for labor force participation, productivity, and ultimately for Armenia's development and poverty reduction trajectory. The note is structured as follows: section two summarizes the key demographic trends underway in Armenia; section three presents a profile of poverty and social spending by age; section four analyzes the four policy issues as listed in column 2 of table 1. In each of these three sections, the poverty reduction angle is emphasized. The final section provides a summary of the key messages.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2011. Armenia Demographic Change :
Implications for Social Policy and Poverty. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2803 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Azerbaijan Demographic Change : Implications for Social Policy and Poverty(World Bank, 2011-07-29)This note provides an overview of demographic changes in Azerbaijan and their policy implications. Azerbaijan's population is younger than the populations of most countries in the region. It is estimated that the population in Azerbaijan will increase from about 7.2 million in 1990 to 10.6 million by 2050. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan is beginning to experience the aging of its population, after having undergone a dramatic decline in fertility from about 5.5 children per woman in the 1950s, to just over two children per woman at present. This trend, combined with increasing life expectancy, underlies the growing rise in the percentage of elderly persons, and the eventual slowdown in the growth of the working-age population. This note provides an overview of key demographic changes unfolding in Azerbaijan, highlights their linkages with social spending, and draws policy implications for labor force participation, productivity, and ultimately for Azerbaijan's development and poverty reduction trajectory. The major driver of Azerbaijan's demographic shift is an aging population. The country has already undergone a dramatic decline in its fertility rate, which fell from about 5.5 children per woman in the 1950s to the present level of just over 2 children per woman. This trend, combined with increasing life expectancy, underlies the evolution in the age structure of Azerbaijan's population. The two main demographic changes evident from these trends are a rise in the percentage of elderly persons, and a slowdown and eventual shrinkage of the working-age population.Publication Georgia Demographic Change : Implications for Social Programs and Poverty(Washington, DC, 2011-07-29)This note provides an overview of demographic changes and their policy implications in Georgia, with particular reference to the poor. Georgia's population is expected to decline between 2010 and 2050, and this trend will be accompanied by a growing elderly cohort and a rising total dependency ratio. The note emphasizes four interrelated policy topics. These are labor force participation, labor force productivity, and potential cost pressures arising from the pension system and from the health sector. In each area, special attention is given to the linkages between these issues, social spending programs, and opportunities for targeting the poor. The note does not present specific policy recommendations, but instead outlines broad areas where future analytical work might be undertaken to arrive at more precise policy options. The note is structured as follows. The next section summarizes the key demographic trends underway in Georgia. Section three presents a profile of poverty and social spending by age. Section four analyzes the four policy issues listed in column two of table one. In each of these sections, the poverty reduction angle is emphasized. The final section provides a summary of the key messages, with an emphasis on policy priorities going forward.Publication Sri Lanka : Addressing the Needs of an Aging Population(Washington, DC, 2008-06)This study is about the key issues that will have to be addressed in order to successfully avert serious problems, or even crisis, as Sri Lanka's inevitable population aging unfolds. The four main chapters of this report focus on these four critical areas in turn. The second chapter examines living arrangements, intergenerational transfers as well as the respect and authority old people enjoy. One of the biggest problems facing old people is lack of independent financial sources, so the third chapter provides an analysis of formal income support programs including pensions and relevant safety net programs. The fourth chapter evaluates the health status of old people and how well placed the healthcare system is to cope with an aging population. Finally, the fifth chapter analyzes the implications of an aging labor force. These chapters are preceded by an overview chapter that presents demographic trends that have contributed to population aging and sketches a portrait of the aging in Sri Lanka.Publication From Red to Gray : The "Third Transition" of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007)This report focuses on the challenges that the region's aging countries will now face in having to deal with multiple transitions. It argues that their task ahead, though uniquely daunting, is by no means impossible. Indeed, many of the potential problems can be addressed through sensible and thoughtful policies that can be enacted over the next few years. The only danger likely lies in complacency, in not being proactive in addressing the challenges. This report finds, first, that some of the concerns about aging in Eastern European and Former Soviet countries are probably misplaced. Second, the analysis in the report validates concerns about future fiscal strains in some of the region's aging countries, but finds that many of the drivers of higher future public expenditures are unrelated to aging. This report is particularly focused on the future-a future in the region that is critically dependent on actions that countries and societies take now, and over the next few years. The report sends two central messages, which are analyzed against the different patterns of aging across the region. Red light to green light: Growing older does not have to mean growing slower. Aging is not a stop sign for growth-if countries enact policies that boost productivity and labor force participation. Red ink to black ink: Waging sensible policies can ease aging's spending impact. The policies needed to manage much of the expected jump in public spending-especially the impacts on pensions and on health care-are well known. They need only to be enacted and implemented.Publication South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 8S, Fall 2015(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-09)The six countries of South East Europe (SEE6) are aging fast and catching up with developed economies that are already far advanced in the aging process. Low fertility rates are reducing working-age populations across the SEE6. The adverse SEE6 demographic dynamic is aggravated by emigration. In the absence of any policy and behavioral responses or changes in labor productivity, and where population aging reflects solely declining overall labor force participation rates, aging itself would be expected to negatively impact economic growth. Boosts in productivity are one of the key ways to counterbalance potential negative effects of aging on economic growth. Changes in both individual and business behavior supported by policies that increase quality of human capital and encourage labor force participation can help seize the opportunities and mitigate the adverse effects of an aging population.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication The Mexican Social Protection System in Health(World Bank, Washington DC, 2013-01)With a population of 113 million and a per-capita Gross Domestic Product, or GDP of US$10,064 (current U.S. dollars), Mexico is one of the largest and highest-income countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The country has benefited from sustained economic growth during the last decade, which was temporarily interrupted by the financial and economic crisis. Real GDP is projected to grow 3.8 percent and 3.6 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively (International Monetary Fund, or IMF 2012). Despite this growth, poverty in the country remains high; with half of the population living below the national poverty line. The country is also highly heterogeneous, with large socioeconomic differences across states and across urban and rural areas. In 2010, while the extreme poverty ratio in the Federal District and the states of Colima and Nuevo Leon was below 3 percent, in Chiapas, Guerrero, and Oaxaca it was 25 percent or higher. These large regional differences are also found in other indicators of well-being, such as years of schooling, housing conditions, and access to social services. This case study assesses key features and achievements of the Social Protection System in Health (Sistema de Proteccion Social en Salud) in Mexico, and particularly of its main pillar, Popular Health Insurance (Seguro Popular, PHI). It analyzes the contribution of this policy to the establishment and implementation of universal health coverage in Mexico. In 2003, with the reform of the General Health Law, the PHI was institutionalized as a subsidized health insurance scheme open to the population not covered by the social security schemes. Today, the PHI covers all of its intended affiliates, about 52 million peoplePublication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Guide to the Debt Management Performance Assessment Tool(Washington, DC, 2008-02-05)The purpose of this document is to provide guidance and supplemental information to assist with country assessments of debt management performance, using the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) tool. The DeMPA is a methodology used for assessing public debt management performance through a comprehensive set of 15 performance indicators spanning the full range of government Debt Management (DeM) functions. It is based on the principles set out in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank guidelines for public debt management, initially published in 2001 and updated in 2003. It is modeled after the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) framework for performance measurement of public financial management. The DeMPA has been designed to be a user-friendly tool to undertake an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses in government DeM practices. This guide provides additional background and supporting information so that a no specialist in the area of debt management may undertake a country assessment effectively. The guide can be used by assessors in preparing for and undertaking an assessment. It is particularly useful for understanding the rationale for the inclusion of the indicators, the scoring methodology, and the list of supporting documents or evidence required, and the questions that could be asked for the assessment.Publication Crime and Violence in Central America : A Development Challenge - Main Report(World Bank, 2011-01-01)Crime and violence are now a key development issue for Central American countries. In three nations El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras crime rates are among the top five in Latin America. This report argues that successful strategies require actions along multiple fronts, combining prevention and criminal justice reform, together with regional approaches in the areas of drug trafficking and firearms. It also argues that interventions should be evidence based, starting with a clear understanding of the risk factors involved and ending with a careful evaluation of how any planned action might affect future options. In addition, the design of national crime reduction plans and the establishment of national cross-sectoral crime commissions are important steps to coordinate the actions of different government branches, ease cross-sectoral collaboration and prioritize resource allocation. Of equal importance is the fact that national plans offer a vehicle for the involvement of civil society organizations, in which much of the expertise in violence prevention and rehabilitation resides. Prevention efforts need to be complemented by effective law enforcement. The required reforms are no longer primarily legislative in nature because all six countries have advanced toward more transparent adversarial criminal procedures. The second-generation reforms should instead help deliver on the promises of previous reforms by: (i) strengthening key institutions and improving the quality and timeliness of the services they provide to citizens; (ii) improving efficiency and effectiveness while respecting due process and human rights; (iii) ensuring accountability and addressing corruption; (iv) increasing inter-agency collaboration; and (v) improving access to justice, especially for poor and disenfranchised groups. Specific interventions reviewed in the report include: information systems and performance indicators as a prerequisite to improve inter-institutional coordination and information sharing mechanisms; an internal overhaul of court administration and case management to create rapid reaction, one-stop shops; the strengthening of entities that provide legal counseling to the poor and to women; and the promotion of alternative dispute-resolution mechanisms and the implementation of community policing programs.