Publication: Decarbonizing Air Transport: Insights from a Quasi-Experiment
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2025-08-13
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2025-08-13
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The US-China direct flights in mid-2023 were only 7 percent of those available in mid-2019. This quasi-experiment informs the debate on air transport de-carbonization. An estimated structural model shows that re-establishing the pre-pandemic direct connectivity could increase passengers by 387 percent and reduce prices by 63 percent. Moreover, due to the suppression of flights, carbon dioxide emissions decreased by 80 percent. A counterfactual exercise shows that maintaining pre-COVID connectivity and achieving the same emissions reduction through a market mechanism (i.e. offsetting), would have resulted in more passengers (+365 percent), lower prices (−60 percent), and lower reduction in consumer surplus (−40 percent) than observed in the post COVID-19 equilibrium. This
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“Abate, Megersa; Barattieri, Alessandro; Brugnoli, Alberto; Porta, Flavio. 2025. Decarbonizing Air Transport: Insights from a Quasi-Experiment. Policy Research Working Paper; 11183. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43580 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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