Publication:
Wealth Accounting, Exhaustible Resources and Social Welfare

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Published
2009
ISSN
09246460
Date
2012-03-30
Author(s)
Hamilton, Kirk
Editor(s)
Abstract
The empirical literature on natural resource accounting uses methods which implicitly or explicitly entail measuring changes in total resource asset value when an exhaustible resource is depleted. In contrast, the growth theoretic literature on saving, social welfare and sustainable development is built upon a central finding, that the change in real wealth (as measured by net or 'genuine' saving) is proportional to the change in social welfare. We show that the change in total wealth exceeds the change in real wealth in optimal and non-optimal models of resource-extracting economies. This suggests that the change in social welfare is over-estimated when the change in total resource asset value is used as the measure of depletion. A simple empirical exercise, using World Bank data on 'adjusted net saving', reinforces the results from theory.
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  • Publication
    Capital Accumulation and Resource Depletion : A Hartwick Rule Counterfactual
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01) Hamilton, Kirk; Tajibaeva, Liaila; Ruta, Giovanni
    How rich would resource-abundant countries be if they had actually followed the Hartwick Rule (invest resource rents in other assets) over the past 30 years? The authors use time series data on investments and rents on exhaustible resource extraction for 70 countries to answer this question. The results are striking: Gabon, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela would all be as wealthy as the Republic of Korea, while Nigeria would be five times as well off as it is currently. The authors also derive a more general rule for sustainability-maintain positive constant genuine investment-and use this to draw further empirical results.
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    Sustaining Economic Welfare : Estimating Changes in Per Capita Wealth
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2000-11) Hamilton, Kirk
    The World Bank's "World Development Indicators 1999" highlights for the first time the "genuine" rate of saving for more than 100 countries around the globe. Genuine saving values the total change in economic assets, thereby providing an indicator of whether an economy is on a sustainable path. The Bank's new estimates of genuine saving broaden the usual national accounts definitions of assets to include human capital, minerals, energy, forest resources, and the stock of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Genuine saving measures the change in total assets rather than the change in per capita assets. Genuine saving data may answer the question, "Did total wealth rise or fall over the acoounting period?" But they do not address the question of whether an economy is sustainable with a growing population. Genuine saving could be positive even though per capita wealth is declining. The author explores the issue of measuring changes in per capita wealth--factoring in both growth in total assets (as measured by genuine saving) and population growth--as a more comprehensive indicator of sustainability. First he develops a theoretical approach to estimating total wealth. Then he presents cross-country estimates of changes in per capita wealth. Based on preliminary estimates, he concludes that in the majority of countries below the median per capita income, wealth is accumulating more slowly than the population is growing.
  • Publication
    Resource Discoveries, Learning, and National Income Accounting
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06) Hamilton, Kirk; Atkinson, Giles
    Questions about the ultimate size of mineral and energy resource endowments and the degree of fiscal prudence which should be exercised by countries engaged in resource extraction have become central for many developing countries during the recent resource boom. To explore these questions, this paper develops a model of optimal resource extraction and discovery that combines two polar assumptions: (i) that discovering a resource today drives up the cost of future resource discoveries, and (ii) that extracting resources yields knowledge that reduces the cost of discovery. Although the model shows that resource discoveries should be valued at marginal discovery cost in measures of national saving and income, the ultimate size of the resource that can be exploited is the result of the interplay between rising discovery costs and accumulating knowledge. Empirical tests of the model show that the resulting income estimates would be extremely volatile for many extractive economies, owing to the lumpiness of resource discoveries. Two alternative accounting approaches, based on Hicksian concepts, yield more intuitive and less volatile income estimates. The question of fiscal prudence for extractive economies hinges on how optimistic countries are about the risks in future mineral and energy markets, and how far into the future these countries are willing to project optimistic trends when making decisions about how much to consume and how much to save of current resource revenues.
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    Biodiversity and National Accounting
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Hamilton, Kirk
    Biodiversity, a property of natural areas, provides a range of benefits to the economy including bioprospecting rents, knowledge and insurance, ecotourism fees, and ecosystem services. Many of these values can be broken out in the System of National Accounts, leading to better estimates of the economic losses when natural areas are degraded or destroyed. Developing countries harbor the great majority of biodiversity, and this diversity provides benefits, including knowledge and carbon sequestration, to the whole world. However, protecting biodiversity is particularly costly for developing countries: the opportunity cost of foregoing development of natural areas exceeds 1 percent of gross domestic product in 58 developing countries, versus only four OECD countries. The Global Environment Facility can offset these costs through grant finance, but annual Global Environment Facility finance and co-finance averages only 8 percent of the opportunity costs faced by low-income countries.
  • Publication
    How Has Environment Mattered? An Analysis of World Bank Resource Allocation
    (World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2004-04) Acharya, Anjali; Ijjasz-Vasquez, Ede Jorge; Hamilton, Kirk; Buys, Piet; Dasgupta, Susmita; Meisner, Craig; Pandey, Kiran; Wheeler, David
    How has environment mattered for the World Bank? The aggregate figures suggest that it has mattered a great deal, since the Bank's total environmental lending has exceeded $US 9 billion over the past six years. In this paper the authors use newly available data to address a more precise version of the question: Across countries and themes, how well has the Bank's environmental lending and analytical and advisory activities (AAA) matched the incidence of environmental problems? For their assessment, the authors extend their previous work on local pollution and fragile lands (Buys and others 2003) to consideration of global emissions, biodiversity, water resources, and institutional development. They construct cross-country problem indicators for each environmental theme and combine them with country risk measures to estimate optimal thematic lending and AAA for each country. The authors then compare their estimates with actual lending and AAA to assess the match between environmental problems and the Bank's response. The authors begin by constructing an overall indicator of environmental problems from their thematic indicators. Using regression analysis, they find a strong relationship between countries' general indicator values and the scale of their environmental borrowing, but a relatively weak relationship for AAA. At the thematic level, the authors find that problem indicators have relatively weak relationships with both lending and AAA. Adding country risk to the analysis, they test an optimal allocation model and find that it is consistent with the Bank's actual lending and AAA since 1998. The authors conclude that their model's assignment of lending and AAA to countries reflects the Bank's actual experience with partner countries. The model's explanatory power is relatively low, however, and when they compare model assignments to actual allocations, the authors find many large discrepancies for countries and environmental themes. Some gaps may reflect activity by other donor institutions, but many others may represent problems with efficient implementation of the Bank's Environment Strategy. To promote further discussion of this issue, the authors use their optimal allocation model to develop measures of lending opportunity by environmental theme for the Bank's partner countries.

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