Cote d’Ivoire 10th Economic Update

Abstract

This report contributes to the growing body of knowledge by shedding light on the impact of COVID-19 and confinement measures on Ivoirian enterprises and households. It builds on two dedicated sets of survey data that were collected in April 2020, at the height of the local confinement measures. The report also presents a set of policy recommendations, building on the government’s response plan and how it addresses the triple challenge of saving lives, protecting livelihoods and protecting the future. Specifically, it tries to highlight responses measures that could also contribute to boosting recovery and support the country’s return to strong growth. The report begins in Part one with a presentation of the country’s progress in 2019, recent developments in 2020 and the macroeconomic outlook. Thanks to strong economic growth and sound macroeconomic policies, Cote d’Ivoire entered the crisis from a position of strength. However, the global recession and uncertain evolution of the domestic outbreak pose significant downside risks. Part two is then dedicated to a diagnostic of COVID 19’s impact on enterprises and households. The new survey data suggests that enterprises across all sectors felt the crisis impact, in terms of closures, sales, disruptions in logistics and access to inputs. Smaller enterprises with less buffers to withstand shocks were more severely impacted than larger ones. Households likewise reported much reduced working hours and a significant drop in incomes, salaries or revenues, while being (temporarily) hit with higher prices for food. Taken together, the survey data suggests that a severe shock for consumption and demand will become visible and tangible in the next months, even as the overall situation appears to have stabilized.

Grâce à la forte croissance économique des années précédentes, la Côte d’Ivoire est entrée dans la crise en position de force – mais la récession mondiale et l’évolution incertaine de la pandémie sur le plan local ralentiront le progrès en 2020. La croissance ivoirienne devrait ralentir, passant d’environ 7 % à près de 1.8 % en 2020, conséquence directe de la pandémie du Coronavirus sur l’économie du pays. Après l’apparition des premiers cas positifs de COVID-19 sur le territoire national, le gouvernement ivoirien a mis, assez rapidement, en oeuvre des mesures de confinement1 et a renforcé ses capacités de gestion de la crise. Cependant, les mesures de distanciation sociale (telles que la fermeture des restaurants et des marchés, les restrictions en matière de transports publics, etc.) ont eu un coût élevé. De façon plus large, la crise mondiale devrait provoquer une récession dans la plupart des pays industrialisés et au-delà, avec une contraction considérable du PIB. Même l’Afrique subsaharienne connaîtra sa première récession en 25 ans. Frappée par le choc sur le commerce mondial ainsi que par le coût des mesures de confinement, la Côte d’Ivoire n’y échappe pas.