Publication: Cote d’Ivoire 10th Economic Update: Cote d’Ivoire and the COVID-19 Pandemic
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2020-08
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2020-10-02
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This report contributes to the growing body of knowledge by shedding light on the impact of COVID-19 and confinement measures on Ivoirian enterprises and households. It builds on two dedicated sets of survey data that were collected in April 2020, at the height of the local confinement measures. The report also presents a set of policy recommendations, building on the government’s response plan and how it addresses the triple challenge of saving lives, protecting livelihoods and protecting the future. Specifically, it tries to highlight responses measures that could also contribute to boosting recovery and support the country’s return to strong growth. The report begins in Part one with a presentation of the country’s progress in 2019, recent developments in 2020 and the macroeconomic outlook. Thanks to strong economic growth and sound macroeconomic policies, Cote d’Ivoire entered the crisis from a position of strength. However, the global recession and uncertain evolution of the domestic outbreak pose significant downside risks. Part two is then dedicated to a diagnostic of COVID 19’s impact on enterprises and households. The new survey data suggests that enterprises across all sectors felt the crisis impact, in terms of closures, sales, disruptions in logistics and access to inputs. Smaller enterprises with less buffers to withstand shocks were more severely impacted than larger ones. Households likewise reported much reduced working hours and a significant drop in incomes, salaries or revenues, while being (temporarily) hit with higher prices for food. Taken together, the survey data suggests that a severe shock for consumption and demand will become visible and tangible in the next months, even as the overall situation appears to have stabilized.
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“World Bank. 2020. Cote d’Ivoire 10th Economic Update: Cote d’Ivoire and the COVID-19 Pandemic. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34559 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Second, the price paid for the expansion of cultivated areas in recent decades has been the destruction of virtually all the country’s forests. Third, Côte d’Ivoire has not yet managed to increase its share (between 5 and 7 percent) of the profit made along the cocoa-chocolate global chain. Given this situation, it is not surprising that cocoa is at the center of a host of economic policy discussions in Côte d’Ivoire and that the Government has sped up its deliberations aimed at improving the performance of the sector, in particular through the Abidjan Declaration signed jointly in 2018 by the Presidents of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which seeks to harmonize their policies and thus maximize their profit (these two countries account for approximately 65 percent of global production). 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The large import content of these projects will cause the current account deficit to widen further while completion of the main oil pipeline by 2023 should boost revenue and exports over the medium term. However, GDP per capita in 2021 will be only 1 percent higher than in 2019. Addressing inefficient management of a universal fertilizer subsidy program could generate fiscal savings of 0.15 percent of GDP. Until September 2020 fertilizers were sold by Central Agricultural Input and Equipment Supply Agency (CAIMA) and were on average half universally subsidized without targeting specific farmers or crops. The system was characterized by large inefficiencies, including inefficient fertilizer acquisition cost, incapacity to meet the demand and rising operating expenses. After having removed the management of fertilizers from Caima’s mandate, it is important that the Government finalize the ongoing work with development partners for a fertilizers reform that allows a better targeting the subsidies and gives a greater role for the private sector in the fertilizers supply and distribution.Publication Burkina Faso, 2021 April Economic Update(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04)According to latest estimates, the economy grew by 2.0 percent in 2020, 4 percentage points less than projected before the onset of COVID-19 (coronavirus). The primary sector grew by 5.2 percent, supported by strong performances of subsistence crops and cotton.. The tertiary sector, the largest component of the economy, contracted by 4.9 percent on account of COVID-19 social distancing measures. Inflation returned to positive territory in 2020 and closed the year above 4 percent. The pandemic had a positive impact on the external sector and a negative impact on the fiscal accounts. In 2020, the trade balance improved by 1.0 percentage point of GDP supported by historically high gold prices and low oil prices. The structurally negative services balance improved by 0.3 percentage points of GDP on account of cheaper electricity imports from neighboring countries. The fiscal deficit as a share of GDP reached 5.2 percent in 2020, an increase from 3.2 percent in 2019. Public debt stood at 47.6 percent of GDP by end-2020. Although many impacts of the COVID-19 shock persist, the economy is projected to continue its recovery in 2021. On the demand side, the recovery is supported by consumption and private investment. With security, humanitarian, health, and social challenges persistingthroughout the year, the fiscal deficit is projected to remain elevated at 5.2 percent of GDP. As concessional funding is finite and no other funding options are available, the Government will have to resort to more expensive borrowing in the regional market, which will shift the composition of the public debt stock towards a majority share of domestic debt.Publication Morocco Economic Monitor, July 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07)This report presents the current outlook for Morocco given the recent Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) developments. The COVID-19 shock is, however, abruptly pushing the economy into a severe recession, the first one since 1995. The labor market is facing a shock of historical proportion, with vulnerable workers, including those in the informal sector being particularly affected. The government’s response to date has been swift and decisive. The proactive response has enabled the country to avoid a massive outbreak, thus saving lives. The post-pandemic economic recovery is projected - with unusually large uncertainty - to be a protracted one, with growth only returning to the pre-pandemic trend by 2022. Faced with the risk of a protracted pandemic, moving from mitigation to an adaptation phase is key to ensuring a resilient, inclusive, and growing Moroccan economy. Despite potential volatility in the economic recovery phase, Morocco has an opportunity to build a more sustainable and resilient economy by developing a strategy to adapt, similar to its approach to the environment front.
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