Publication: Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2018: De-Risking Lebanon
Loading...
Date
2018-10
ISSN
Published
2018-10
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Lebanon's macro-financial conditions are currently under heavy scrutiny as the country faces increasing challenges. The risk profile for Lebanon is rising sharply in light of the convergence of a number of negative local and global factors, including global monetary conditions. Meanwhile, the utility of some of the tools used by the central bank is depleting following years of application. The central bank has responded by beefing up its stock of foreign exchange reserves, lengthening the maturity of deposits and limiting the liquidity available, thereby inhibiting speculation against the Lebanese Pound. In this issue of the Lebanon Economic Monitor (LEM), we focus on Lebanon's macrofinancial conditions. We begin by explaining real economy and macro-fiscal features that underpin these conditions. We then present a synopsis on the intertwining monetary and financial sectors, followed by an elucidation on latest macrofinancial dynamics. Naturally, the role and activity of the central bank is given particular attention.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2018. Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2018: De-Risking Lebanon. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30866 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11-30)The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2019(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-10)Lebanon is in Crisis. While it is too early to gauge the economic impact of recent events, it is important to note that even prior to the eruption of the demonstrations, the World Bank projected a small recession in 2019; we now estimate that the recession will be deeper. There has been an unprecedented banking holiday, with banks closed over October 18-31 for retail and other transactions, reopening thereafter with informal capital controls and other uncoordinated measures, then closing again for 10 days on November 9. Critical short-term financing for businesses has been interrupted, leading to disruptions all along the supply chain and an ultimate impact on workers. Unemployment is expected to rise and poverty, already high, will follow. The emerging parallel exchange market is likely to trigger inflationary pressures, hurting the poor and middle class disproportionally. Shortages of imports are also expected to materialize. The crisis is a culmination of chronic conditions that have long impeded Lebanon’s development process. Lebanon’s Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD)1 identified elite capture, hidden behind the veil of confessionalism and confessional governance, as one of two overarching constraints for the country’s economic development (the other being conflict and violence, stemming, in part, from the broader dynamics of conflict in the Middle East). Under the guise of preserving post-war confessional balances, a postwar elite emerged to command the main economic resources, both private and public, generating large rents and dividing the spoils of uncompetitive markets and a dysfunctional and hallowed state.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-24)The scale and scope of Lebanon’s deliberate depression are leading to the disintegration of key pillars of Lebanon’s post-civil war political economy. Monetary and financial turmoil along with surging inflation continue to drive crisis conditions. Public finances improved in 2021 as spending collapsed faster than revenue. Lebanon urgently needs to adopt and implement a credible, comprehensive, equitable reform plan if it is to avoid a complete destruction of its social and economic networks and immediately stop irreversible loss of human capital.Publication Iraq Economic Monitor, Fall 2018(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10)Iraq’s overall security situation has notably improved after the defeat of ISIS, but significant challenges lie ahead. Iraq has witnessed major political and security transitions in 2017 when Prime Minister Al-Abadi announced in December the victory over ISIS after a war that lasted three years. The defeat of ISIS in Iraq left the government with the daunting tasks of rebuilding the country’s infrastructure, reconstruction of liberated areas, establishing security and stability,and providing services for the return of the displaced persons. On May 12, 2018 Iraq voted in parliamentary elections that delivered a win for a political bloc led by Moqtada al-Sadr, while PM Al-Abadi’s bloc, once seen as front runner, came in third. The ballots have been recounted after allegations of fraud and completed on August 8th without major change. On September 15th, Iraq’s parliament elected lawmaker Mohammed al-Halbousi as speaker, marking a major step towards establishing a new government. On October 2nd, Iraq’s parliament elected as president Barham Salih,who immediately named Adel Abdul Mahdi Prime Minister-designate, ending months of deadlock afterthe national election in May.Publication Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2018(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-11-28)Iranʼs GDP growth in 2017/18 eased considerably as the effect of large surge in oil revenues in the previous year dissipated. After undergoing an oil-based bounce in the economy in 2016/17, the economy registered a 3.8 percent growth in 2017/18 with the overwhelming majority of growth coming from the non-oil sectors. More than half of the growth can be attributed to services which grew by 4.4 percent. Oil, agriculture and services sectors are now back above the levels of activity they were prior to sanctions in 2012. But there was not a strong bounce back in the past two years for key sectors such as construction and trade, restaurant and hotel services following the stagnation in growth during the period of sanctions. The oil and gas sector witnessed a growth of 0.9 percent.Limited by the (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) OPEC quota for the agreed period, increasing production capacity or maintaining current production levels in the coming years would require a substantial increase in investments in the sector. However, the reintroduction of sanctions on the oil and gas sector in November 2018 by the United States (US) will mean the issue of export payments rather than investment needs will come to the fore.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12)World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.Publication Economic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06)World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.