Publication: Cameroon: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update
Loading...
Date
2018-06-22
ISSN
Published
2018-06-22
Editor(s)
Abstract
Cameroon’s risk of external debt distress remains high. Fiscal consolidation and the Fund-supported envisaged reforms, coupled with the increasing share of concessional new borrowing, would improve the debt profile over time. However, at present, Cameroon’s external debt remains highly vulnerable to exogenous shocks: the policy-dependent threshold for the present value of debt to exports and debt service to exports are breached in the baseline program scenario as well as under standard stress tests. Mitigating risks to public debt thus requires a number of policy actions including: (i) a resolute and effective fiscal consolidation; (ii) a shift in the composition of new borrowing towards concessional loans; (iii) enhanced controls on externally-financed investment projects at all levels of government; (iv) implementation of policies to boost growth and non-oil exports; and (iv) a strengthening of public debt management.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“International Development Association; International Monetary Fund. 2018. Cameroon: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30525 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Liberia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01)Liberia remains at moderate risk of debt distress, though care and precision in implementing its ambitious infrastructure program will be critical. Under the baseline scenario, which reflects staff’s interpretation of the authorities’ stated plans, Liberia will remain at moderate risk of debt distress but move closer to thresholds that mark a high probability of debt distress. Adverse risks to the baseline are also significant. Staff discussed an alternative reform scenario that would ease the risk of debt distress while achieving roughly the same level of spending. The reform scenario assumes that all external financing would be on concessional terms and the amount of additional borrowing would be strictly controlled and supplemented with domestic resource mobilization. Such steps would be beneficial not only to improve the safety margin for the preservation of debt and macroeconomic stability, but also to sustain broad-based growth over the forecast horizon.Publication Central African Republic(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-06-26)Central African Republic (C.A.R.) continues to be assessed at high risk of external debt distress. This rating is unchanged from the previous analysis and consistent with the staff report of December 2017. Under the baseline scenario, one debt burden indicator breaches its threshold. And stress tests show that both external and total public debt sustainability is vulnerable to slower gross domestic product (GDP), export, and revenue growth. For total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt (external plus domestic), the debt-to-GDP indicator remains below its prudent benchmark. However, the existence of large arrears to suppliers and unpaid public-sector wages in the domestic debt stock justifies the assessment of a heightened overall risk of debt distress. Contingent liabilities can further exacerbate vulnerability concerns. To safeguard debt sustainability, the government’s investment program requires grant financing, with highly concessional debt financing to be considered only in exceptional cases.Publication Honduras(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01)The debt sustainability analysis (DSA) shows some improvement relative to the previous review mainly due to better-than-expected outcomes in year 2017 and the revised profile of PPP operations. Staff still assess the risk of debt distress as moderate. Continued strengthening of institutions underpinning sound macroeconomic policies would be required for a future upgrade.Publication Republic of the Marshall Islands(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-08-10)The 2018 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses that the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) remains at high risk of debt distress. The ratios of the present value (PV) of external public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt to GDP and to exports are currently just below their respective policy-dependent indicative thresholds. The PV of the PPG debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline slightly in the near term, but to start increasing and exceed its indicative threshold in the medium to long term. Stress tests confirm the vulnerability of the debt position to lending terms as well as macroeconomic shocks. Although the RMI does not currently face debt servicing risks, helped by government revenue from fishing licenses and a stable flow of funds from the U.S. Compact grants until FY2023, a lack of fiscal buffers after FY2023 and risks from contingent liabilities call for a fiscal reform strategy. Containing the risk of debt distress requires continuation of grants to support the country’s large development needs, and implementation of fiscal and structural reforms to promote fiscal sustainability and growth.Publication Grenada(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-07-05)This report provides a Debt Sustainability Analysis (LIC-DSA) of Grenada’s public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external and total debt for 2018. The macro-framework incorporates all previous debt restructurings, including the November 2017 haircut on commercial debt. Total public debt has declined from 108 percent of GDP in 2013 to below 71 percent of GDP in 2017 with external public debt declining to 48 percent of GDP. This reduction was made possible through a comprehensive restructuring of Grenada’s public debt, fiscal consolidation, and robust economic growth. Nevertheless, with some US$15.7 million (1.4 percent of GDP) in unresolved arrears to official bilateral creditors, Grenada’s external debt risk rating remains ‘in debt distress’. Going forward full regularization of arrears and continued fiscal discipline will be needed to keep the debt on a downward path and withstand the existing vulnerabilities to external shocks and natural disasters.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Unlocking Blue Carbon Development(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-09-11)The purpose of this paper is to provide a practical framework to guide governments in catalyzing and scaling up public and private investment in Blue Carbon as part of their blue economy development. It does this by describing in detail a Blue Carbon Readiness Framework, a step-by-step, well-illustrated guide with simple checklists. Client countries can use the illustrations and checklists to determine their readiness to catalyze and scale up investment in blue carbon credit finance. The Blue Carbon Readiness Framework consists of three pillars: 1. Data and Analytics; 2. Policy and Institutions; 3. Finance.Publication Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Western Europe(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-09)Agriculture in Western Europe enjoys a degree of diversity that reflects a wide variety of soils and climatic conditions ranging from the arid Mediterranean regions to the Arctic Circle. Superimposed on this natural diversity is the complexity of different social, economic and political conditions in the eighteen countries that are the subject of this chapter. History has played a major part in creating this patchwork, particularly the different paths that countries took from feudalism to independent farming units and the inheritance laws that influenced the extent to which land ownership was transmitted from generation to generation. Average farm size varies considerably in the countries of Western Europe, in turn reflecting the relative political and social importance of landowners and small farmers. By the late nineteenth century, these various factors had determined a structure of farming in the Western European region that is still visible today. Productivity growth in Western Europe's agricultural sector compared favorably with that in the manufacturing sector in the immediate post-war period. Over the period 1949 to 1959, by which time the economy had largely recovered from the war-time disruptions, output per person in agriculture had increased by more than that in manufacturing in most of the countries in Western Europe. The productivity growth was a combination of output increases as a result of mechanization and modernization, and the outflow of labor as other sectors absorbed rural workers.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Doing Business 2014 : Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises(Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-28)Eleventh in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 185 economies, Doing Business 2014 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity: Starting a business, Dealing with construction permits, Getting electricity, Registering property, Getting credit, Protecting investors, Paying taxes, Trading across borders, Enforcing contracts, Closing a business, Employing workers. The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2013, ranks economies on their overall “ease of doing business”, and analyzes reforms to business regulation – identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. The Doing Business reports illustrate how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyze economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. Doing Business is a flagship product by the World Bank and IFC that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 60 economies use the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 870 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception.