Publication: Goals for Development : History, Prospects, and Costs
Loading...
Date
2002-04
ISSN
Published
2002-04
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Millennium Development Goals set quantitative targets for poverty reduction and improvements in health, education, gender equality, the environment, and other aspects of human welfare. At existing rates of progress many countries will fall short of these goals. However, if developing countries take steps to improve their policies and increased financial resources are made available, significant additional progress toward the goals is possible. The suthors provide a preliminary estimate of the additional financial resources which would be required if countries would work vigorously toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Two estimates of the resource gap are developed, one by estimating the additional resources necessary to increase economic growth so as to reduce income poverty, the other by estimating the cost of meeting specific goals in health, education, and the environment. Both estimates yield a figure in the range of $40-$70 billion in additional assistance per year, which is in line with estimates from other international development agencies and which would roughly represent a doubling of official aid flows over 2000 levels. While the authors believe this is a reasonable first approximation of the costs associated with achieving the Millennium Development Goals, it should be interpreted with caution for several reasons, including the lack of empirical data in many countries to estimate the relationship between expenditures on health or education and related outcomes, or the relationship between investment and growth, the sensitivity of the results to changes in the policy environment (both at the macroeconomic and sector level, and with respect to international trade), and opportunities for increased-and more efficient-domestic resource mobilization.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Miller, Margaret J.; Devarajan, Shantayanan; Swanson, Eric V.. 2002. Goals for Development : History, Prospects, and Costs. Policy Research Working Paper;No.2819. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/14812 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Geopolitics and the World Trading System(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23)Until the beginning of this century, the GATT/WTO system worked. Economic research provided a compelling explanation. It showed that if governments maximize the well-being of their own countries broadly defined, GATT/WTO principles would facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation over their trade policy choices. Now heightened geopolitical rivalry seems to have undermined the WTO. A simple transposition of the previous rationalization suggests that geopolitics and trade cooperation are not compatible. The paper shows that this is only true if rivalry eclipses any consideration of own-country well-being. In all other circumstances, there are gains from trade cooperation even with geopolitics. Furthermore, the WTO’s relevance is in question only if it adheres too rigidly to its existing rules and norms. Through measured adaptation to the geopolitical imperative, the WTO can continue to thrive as a forum for multilateral trade cooperation in the age of geopolitics.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication From Patriarchy to Policy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Legal institutions play an important role in shaping gender equality in economic domains, from inheritance to labor markets. But where do gender equal laws come from? Using cross-country data on social norms and legal equality, this paper investigates the socio-cultural roots of gender inequity in the legal system and its implications for female labor force participation. To identify the impact of social norms, the analysis uses an empirical strategy that exploits pre-modern differences in ancestral patriarchal culture as an instrument for present-day gender norms. The findings show that ancestral patriarchal culture is a strong predictor of contemporary norms, and conservative social norms are associated with more gender inequality in the de jure legal framework, the de facto implementation of laws, and the labor market. The paper presents evidence for a political selection mechanism linking norms to laws: countries with more conservative norms elect political leaders who are more hostile to gender equality, who then pass less progressive legislation. The results highlight the cultural roots and political drivers of legalized gender inequality.Publication Global Socio-economic Resilience to Natural Disasters(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-22)Most disaster risk assessments use damages to physical assets as their central metric, often neglecting distributional impacts and the coping and recovery capacity of affected people. To address this shortcoming, the concepts of well-being losses and socio-economic resilience—the ability to experience asset losses without a decline in well-being—have been proposed. This paper uses microsimulations to produce a global estimate of well-being losses from, and socio-economic resilience to, natural disasters, covering 132 countries. On average, each $1 in disaster-related asset losses results in well-being losses equivalent to a $2 uniform national drop in consumption, with significant variation within and across countries. The poorest income quintile within each country incurs only 9% of national asset losses but accounts for 33% of well-being losses. Compared to high-income countries, low-income countries experience 67% greater well-being losses per dollar of asset losses and require 56% more time to recover. Socio-economic resilience is uncorrelated with exposure or vulnerability to natural hazards. However, a 10 percent increase in GDP per capita is associated with a 0.9 percentage point gain in resilience, but this benefit arises indirectly—such as through higher rate of formal employment, better financial inclusion, and broader social protection coverage—rather than from higher income itself. This paper assess ten policy options and finds that socio-economic and financial interventions (such as insurance and social protection) can effectively complement asset-focused measures (e.g., construction standards) and that interventions targeting low-income populations usually have higher returns in terms of avoided well-being losses per dollar invested.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Malnutrition in Afghanistan : Scale, Scope, Causes, and Potential Response(World Bank, 2011)This book has the potential to contribute to a reversing of this trend, whereby activities in not only the health sector but also in other sectors relevant to nutrition will gain increased support and prominence in national development planning. South Asia has by far the largest number of malnourished women and children, and no other region of the world has higher rates of malnutrition. Malnutrition in childhood is the biggest contributor to child mortality; a third of child deaths have malnutrition as an underlying cause. For the surviving children, malnutrition has lifelong implications because it severely reduces a child's ability to learn and to grow to his or her full potential. Malnutrition thus leads to less productive adults and weaker national economic performance. Therefore, the impact of malnutrition on a society's productivity and well being and a nation's long-term development is hard to underestimate. For the South Asia region of the World Bank, malnutrition is a key development priority, and in the coming years, the Bank intends to enhance dramatically its response to this challenge. As a first step, a series of country assessments such as this one are being carried out. These assessments will be used to reinforce the dialogue with governments and other development partners to scale up an evidence-based response against malnutrition. To succeed, we will need to address the problem comprehensively, which will require engaging several sectors. This assessment of malnutrition in Afghanistan lays out the scale, scope, and causes of the problem. The assessment also indicates key elements of a potential response.Publication Population Health and Economic Growth(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)Health is a direct source of human welfare and also an instrument for raising income levels. The authors discuss a number of mechanisms through which health can affect income, focusing on worker productivity, children's education, savings and investment, and demographic structure. As well as the impact of current illness, health may have large effects on prospective life spans and life cycle behavior. Studies suggest there may be a large effect of health and nutrition in uteri, and in the first few years of life, on physical and cognitive development and economic success as an adult. Macroeconomic evidence for an effect on growth is mixed, with evidence of a large effect in some studies. However, there is a possibility that gains from health may be outweighed by the effect of increased survival on population growth, until a fertility transition occurs. The low cost of some health interventions that have large-scale effects on population health makes health investments a promising policy tool for growth in developing countries. In addition, higher priority could be given to tackling widespread 'neglected' diseases that is, diseases with low mortality burdens that are not priorities from a pure health perspective, but that do have substantial effects on productivity.Publication Situational Analysis Improving Economic Outcomes by Expanding Nutrition Programming in Tajikistan(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-02-08)Undernutrition in Tajikistan remains an important public health challenge, albeit a hidden problem. Stunting, iodine deficiency, and maternal and child anemia represent the largest burden of undernutrition in Tajikistan. In 2009, around 29 percent of children in all regions of the country were stunted. Iodine deficiency was observed in 53 percent of children and in 58.6 percent of women. The national prevalence of anemia in children was 28.8 percent; however, rates were as high as 39.8 percent in Ghorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Province and in 32 percent directly ruled districts (DRD). The prevalence of anemia among mothers was 24.2 percent. The long-term effects of these conditions negatively affect the health of adults throughout their life, as well as their potential productivity in the work force and possible economic contribution to the nation. The highest priority interventions will improve infant and young child feeding. Strengthening and scaling up breastfeeding promotion will save lives and help to reduce stunting as would complementary feeding for babies six months and older. Promoting exclusive breastfeeding for infants under six months is the most efficacious intervention to save lives, averting nearly 20 percent of deaths in children under-five. Effective programs need to be designed to make more women aware of the benefits of breastfeeding and sound nutrition. A comprehensive, multi-sector approach is needed to ensure success of these interventions. This report also makes several other recommendations including: supplementing pregnant women with either iron folic acid or multiple micronutrients, maintain twice-annually vitamin A supplementation, implementing a deworming program, support for flour fortification, scale up and maintain zinc for the management of diarrhea, and address the underlying and basic causes of undernutrition through other sectors.Publication Reaching the Millennium Development Goals : Mauritania Should Care(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-07)Mauritania is a resource-rich developing country. As many other African nations, it will not reach most of the Millennium Development Goals, unless the authorities commit to accelerating progress. To succeed by 2015, the government needs to: mobilize additional financial resources, introduce policy changes at the sector level, and strengthen the links between strategic objectives and the budget. Adopting the Millennium Development Goals as the overarching development framework will keep policy-makers focused on concrete results and help them avoid the so-called "natural resource curse." This paper calculates the total cost of the Millennium Development Goals and financing gap (on aggregate and for each goal); recommends changes in domestic sector policies; and proposes ways to integrate the Millennium Development Goals into the budget process. Over 2008-2015, the total cost of reaching the goals in Mauritania and the resulting financing gap stand at, respectively, around 9 and 3 percent of non-oil gross domestic product on average per year. Education is the most expensive goal in absolute terms, but the individual financing gaps are widest for poverty reduction and improving maternal health. On the policy side, sector strategies need to be aligned with the goals and resources allocated more than proportionally to the disadvantaged groups, mainly at the local level.Publication Clearing the Global Health Fog : A Systematic Review of the Evidence on Integration of Health Systems and Targeted Interventions(World Bank, 2009-03-01)A longstanding debate on health systems organization relates to benefits of integrating health programs that emphasize specific interventions into mainstream health systems to increase access and improve health outcomes This paper is organized in five chapters. This introduction is followed by the methodology chapter, which includes a brief section on the conceptual framework used to analyze the studies retrieved and the programs presented within these to map the nature and extent of integration into critical health system functions. The results chapter includes: a summary of the outcomes for each study grouped by the disease area or the clinical problem the intervention seeks to address, including the reported success; for each program, analysis and mapping of the nature and extent of integration into critical health system functions; and an analysis of how contextual factors either created opportunities for introducing or integrating a program or influenced the desirability or feasibility of program integration. The discussion chapter provides an overview of the implication of findings for policy makers, practitioners and researchers. The final chapter draws conclusions.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Design Thinking for Social Innovation(2010-07)Designers have traditionally focused on enchancing the look and functionality of products.Publication Governance Matters VIII : Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996–2008(2009-06-01)This paper reports on the 2009 update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project, covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2008: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. These aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance, taken from 35 data sources provided by 33 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector and NGO experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The authors also explicitly report the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. They find that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons as well as monitoring progress over time. The aggregate indicators, together with the disaggregated underlying indicators, are available at www.govindicators.org.Publication Governance Matters IV : Governance Indicators for 1996-2004(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-06)The authors present the latest update of their aggregate governance indicators, together with new analysis of several issues related to the use of these measures. The governance indicators measure the following six dimensions of governance: (1) voice and accountability; (2) political instability and violence; (3) government effectiveness; (4) regulatory quality; (5) rule of law, and (6) control of corruption. They cover 209 countries and territories for 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. They are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 37 separate data sources constructed by 31 organizations. The authors present estimates of the six dimensions of governance for each period, as well as margins of error capturing the range of likely values for each country. These margins of error are not unique to perceptions-based measures of governance, but are an important feature of all efforts to measure governance, including objective indicators. In fact, the authors give examples of how individual objective measures provide an incomplete picture of even the quite particular dimensions of governance that they are intended to measure. The authors also analyze in detail changes over time in their estimates of governance; provide a framework for assessing the statistical significance of changes in governance; and suggest a simple rule of thumb for identifying statistically significant changes in country governance over time. The ability to identify significant changes in governance over time is much higher for aggregate indicators than for any individual indicator. While the authors find that the quality of governance in a number of countries has changed significantly (in both directions), they also provide evidence suggesting that there are no trends, for better or worse, in global averages of governance. Finally, they interpret the strong observed correlation between income and governance, and argue against recent efforts to apply a discount to governance performance in low-income countries.Publication Government Matters III : Governance Indicators for 1996-2002(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-08)The authors present estimates of six dimensions of governance covering 199 countries and territories for four time periods: 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002. These indicators are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 25 separate data sources constructed by 18 different organizations. The authors assign these individual measures of governance to categories capturing key dimensions of governance and use an unobserved components model to construct six aggregate governance indicators in each of the four periods. They present the point estimates of the dimensions of governance as well as the margins of errors for each country for the four periods. The governance indicators reported here are an update and expansion of previous research work on indicators initiated in 1998 (Kaufmann, Kraay, and Zoido-Lobat 1999a,b and 2002). The authors also address various methodological issues, including the interpretation and use of the data given the estimated margins of errors.Publication Measuring Financial Inclusion : The Global Findex Database(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04)This paper provides the first analysis of the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) Database, a new set of indicators that measure how adults in 148 economies save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. The data show that 50 percent of adults worldwide have an account at a formal financial institution, though account penetration varies widely across regions, income groups and individual characteristics. In addition, 22 percent of adults report having saved at a formal financial institution in the past 12 months, and 9 percent report having taken out a new loan from a bank, credit union or microfinance institution in the past year. Although half of adults around the world remain unbanked, at least 35 percent of them report barriers to account use that might be addressed by public policy. Among the most commonly reported barriers are high cost, physical distance, and lack of proper documentation, though there are significant differences across regions and individual characteristics.