Publication:
Complementarity between Multilateral Lending and Private Flows to Developing Countries : Some Empirical Results

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (962.66 KB)
267 downloads
English Text (45.21 KB)
48 downloads
Published
2001-12
ISSN
Date
2014-08-14
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Despite the surge in private capital flows in the 1990s, lending by the multilateral development banks continues to be a significant source of external finance for low-income and lower-middle-income countries. And for middle-income countries, which receive the lion's share of private flows, multilateral lending has played an important stabilizing role during times of credit rationing. Even though multilateral loans may have behaved countercyclically with respect to private flows in the short term, these loans also tended to complement private flows in the medium term by signaling-and often fostering-a better investment environment in the borrowing countries.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Ratha, Dilip. 2001. Complementarity between Multilateral Lending and Private Flows to Developing Countries : Some Empirical Results. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2746. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19337 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10) Farkas, Hannah; Linsenmeier, Manuel; Talevi, Marta; Avner, Paolo; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Sidibe, Moussa
    This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    Labor Demand in the Age of Generative AI: Early Evidence from the U.S. Job Posting Data
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-18) Liu, Yan; Wang, He; Yu, Shu
    This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job displacement effects of generative artificial intelligence. The identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low artificial intelligence substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT’s launch, conditioning on similar generative artificial intelligence exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. The analysis uses 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2025Q2. The findings show that the number of postings for occupations with above-median artificial intelligence substitution scores fell by an average of 12 percent relative to those with below-median scores. The effect increased from 6 percent in the first year after the launch to 18 percent by the third year. Losses were particularly acute for entry-level positions that require neither advanced degrees (18 percent) nor extensive experience (20 percent), as well as those in administrative support (40 percent) and professional services (30 percent). Although generative artificial intelligence generates new occupations and enhances productivity, which may increase labor demand, early evidence suggests that some occupations may be less likely to be complemented by generative artificial intelligence than others.
  • Publication
    External Finance in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: A Tale of Differences in Vulnerabilities
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-04) Kim, Dohan; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria
    Over the past two decades, many emerging markets and developing economies have been viewed as increasingly resilient to external financial shocks. This paper assesses whether such resilience is broadly shared across emerging markets and developing economies by classifying them into three tiers based on economic size, income level, institutional strength, and financial integration. The analysis shows that first-tier emerging markets and developing economies have improved their external balance sheets and reduced dependence on official support. However, second- and third-tier emerging markets and developing economies have experienced growing external vulnerabilities since the global financial crisis, marked by rising external debt liabilities and declining foreign exchange reserves. Using a range of indicators, including sovereign defaults, arrears, partial defaults, and International Monetary Fund lending, the paper identifies episodes of external financial distress and shows that distress remains widespread among second- and third-tier emerging markets and developing economies. The empirical analysis confirms that key components of the net international investment position—especially external debt and foreign exchange reserves—predict the onset of external financial distress, with institutional quality shaping the impact. Weak institutions amplify risks, while strong institutions mitigate them. These findings highlight the importance of recognizing heterogeneity across emerging markets and developing economies, strengthening institutional quality alongside external balance-sheet management, and rebuilding buffers to safeguard against renewed global financial stress.
  • Publication
    Rigging the Scores: Corruption through Scoring Rule Manipulation in Public Procurement Auctions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-02) Chen, Qianmiao
    Public procurement is highly susceptible to corruption, especially in developing countries. Although open auctions are widely adopted to curb it, this paper finds that corruption remains prevalent even within this procurement format. Procurement officers can collaborate with firms to manipulate scoring rules, ensuring predetermined winners, while corrupt firms submit noncompetitive bids to meet minimum bidder requirements. Using extensive data from Chinese public procurement auctions, the paper introduces model-driven statistical tools to detect such corruption, identifying a corruption rate of 65 percent. A procurement expert audit survey confirms the tools’ reliability, with a 91 percent probability that experts recognize suspicious scoring rules when flagged. Firm-level analysis reveals that local, state-owned, and less productive firms are favored in corrupt auctions. Lastly, the paper explores policy implications. Analysis of the national anti-corruption campaign since 2012 suggests that general investigations may be insufficient to address deeply ingrained corrupt practices. Using counterfactuals based on an estimated structural model, the paper shows that implementing anonymous call-for-tender evaluations could improve social welfare by 10 percent by eliminating suspicious rules and encouraging broader participation.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Sovereign Ratings in the Post-Crisis World : An Analysis of Actual, Shadow and Relative Risk Ratings
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-10) Basu, Kaushik; De, Supriyo; Ratha, Dilip; Timmer, Hans
    This paper analyzes the evolution of sovereign credit ratings in the wake of the global financial crisis by studying changes in actual, shadow, and relative ratings between 2008 and 2012. For countries that do not have a rating from the major rating agencies, shadow ratings are estimated as a function of macroeconomic, structural, and governance variables. The shadow rating exercise confirms earlier findings in the literature that even after the financial crisis, many unrated countries appear to be more creditworthy than previously believed and can access international capital markets. The paper also develops a new rating scale called the "relative risk rating," which ranks countries according to their actual or shadow ratings after controlling for changes in the world weighted average rating. When relative ratings in 2012 are compared with the first half of 2008, the world average rating is found to be weaker because of the financial crisis. The relative rating improved in developing economies such as Azerbaijan, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, whereas it deteriorated in crisis-affected high-income countries such as Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Egypt. Interestingly, India, Jordan, Poland, and the United Kingdom had their rating outlook downgraded by the rating agencies, but their relative rating actually improved as other countries suffered even worse downgrades. A regression model is used to analyze the relative contributions of different variables to rating changes during 2008-2012, a helpful feature for policy makers interested in improving sovereign ratings.
  • Publication
    Innovative Financing for Development
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2009) Ketkar, Suhas; Ratha, Dilip
    In the run-up to the 'follow-up international conference on financing for development' to be held in Doha from November 28 to December 2, 2008, it seems particularly timely to collect in one book writings on the various market-based innovative methods of raising development finance. Although developing countries are well advised to use caution in incurring large foreign debt obligations, especially of short duration, there is little doubt that poor countries can benefit from cross-border capital whether channeled through the public or private sectors. The papers in this book focus on various recent innovations in international finance that allow developing countries to tap global capital markets in times of low risk appetite, thereby reducing their vulnerability to booms and busts in capital flows. Debt issues backed by future hard currency receivables and diaspora bonds fall into the category of mechanisms that are best described as foul-weather friends. By linking the rate on interest to a country's ability to pay, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-indexed bonds reduce the cyclical vulnerabilities of developing countries. Furthermore, these innovative mechanisms perm lower-cost and longer-term borrowings in international capital markets. Not only do the papers included in this book describe the innovative financing mechanisms; they also quantify the mechanisms' potential size and then identify the constraints on their use. Finally, the papers recommend concrete measures that the World Bank and other regional development banks can implement to alleviate these constraints. Economists have analyzed the feasibility and potential of using various tax-based sources of development finance in the context of meeting the millennium development goals. This has given rise to a new discipline of global public finance. This book complements those efforts by focusing on market based mechanisms for raising development finance.
  • Publication
    Beyond Aid : New Sources and Innovative Mechanisms for Financing Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-04) Mohapatra, Sanket; Ratha, Dilip; Plaza, Sonia
    Given Sub-Saharan Africa's enormous resource needs for growth, poverty reduction, and other Millennium Development Goals, the development community has little choice but to continue to explore new sources of financing, innovative private-to-private sector solutions, and public-private partnerships to mobilize additional international financing. The paper suggests several new instruments for improving access to capital. An analysis of country creditworthiness suggests that many countries in the region may be more creditworthy than previously believed. Establishing sovereign rating benchmarks and credit enhancement through guarantee instruments provided by multilateral aid agencies would facilitate market access. Creative financial structuring, such as the International Financing Facility for Immunization, would help front-load aid commitments, although these may not result in additional financing in the long run. Preliminary estimates suggest that Sub-Saharan African countries can potentially raise USD 1-3 billion by reducing the cost of international migrant remittances, USD 5-10 billion by issuing diaspora bonds, and USD 17 billion by securitizing future remittances and other future receivables. African countries that have recently received debt relief however need to be cautious when resorting to market-based borrowing.
  • Publication
    What Factors Appear to Drive Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries? And How Does Official Lending Respond?
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2000-07) Dasgupta, Dipak; Ratha, Dilip
    The authors study what drives private capital flows to developing countries, as well as the apparent response of official lending for the years 1978-97. Econometric results reveal that non-foreign direct investment portfolio flows to a country tended to rise in response to: 1) An increase in the current account deficit. 2) A rise in foreign direct investment flows. 3) Higher per capita income. 4) Growth performance. Once those variables were accounted for, private flows did not seem to be influenced by location, and regional factors. In addition, private capital flows (whether foreign direct investment or not) seem to respond positively (with a one-year lag) to World Bank lending commitments. By far the most important determinant of official lending to a developing country, seems to be the external current account balance, or a change in international reserves in the country. Official flows - including World Bank lending - appear to have played a stabilizing (or counter-cyclical) role in response to the volatility of private capital flows, and fluctuations in commodity prices, and GDP growth. (The stabilizing effect is weak, as official flows are only one-tenth of total long-term flows).
  • Publication
    MIGA Annual Report 2012
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012-10) Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
    In fiscal year 2012, a total issue of $2.7 billion in guarantees for projects in Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency's (MIGA's) developing member countries and an additional $10.6 million was issued under MIGA administered trust funds. This is another record high for new issuance by the Agency, the second consecutive year of this trend, and was marked by increased regional and sectoral diversification. Fifty-eight percent of projects guaranteed, accounting for 70 percent of the total volume of new coverage, address at least one of MIGA's four strategic priority areas. Fiscal year 2012 also marks the fifth consecutive year of record levels in the Agency's gross portfolio. MIGA issued $2.7 billion in guarantees in support of investments in developing countries. The Agency welcomed two new members, Niger and South Sudan, during the fiscal year. This report highlights MIGA's active support for these objectives in fiscal year 2012. It demonstrates the Agency's ability to deliver on its mandate to promote foreign direct investment into developing countries to support economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve people's lives. As the global investment environment becomes increasingly volatile, and MIGA's clients look for opportunities in frontier markets, there is greater interest in political risk-mitigation mechanisms. MIGA has positioned itself well to respond to these developments especially as a result of its stronger field presence and internal reforms over the last two years. MIGA is committed to promoting projects that promise a strong development impact and are economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable. MIGA's projects this past year demonstrate this focus in a wide range of sectors, across all regions. In fiscal year 2012 the Agency's projects in the region accounted for 24 percent of volume, twice the level of the previous year.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.
  • Publication
    Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2025: Accelerating Growth through Entrepreneurship, Technology Adoption, and Innovation
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-23) Belacin, Matias; Iacovone, Leonardo; Izvorski, Ivailo; Kasyanenko, Sergiy
    Business dynamism and economic growth in Europe and Central Asia have weakened since the late 2000s, with productivity growth driven largely by resource reallocation between firms and sectors rather than innovation. To move up the value chain, countries need to facilitate technology adoption, stronger domestic competition, and firm-level innovation to build a more dynamic private sector. Governments should move beyond broad support for small- and medium-sized enterprises and focus on enabling the most productive firms to expand and compete globally. Strengthening competition policies, reducing the presence of state-owned enterprises, and ensuring fair market access are crucial. Limited availability of long-term financing and risk capital hinders firm growth and innovation. Economic disruptions are a shock in the short term, but they provide an opportunity for implementing enterprise and structural reforms, all of which are essential for creating better-paying jobs and helping countries in the region to achieve high-income status.
  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.