Publication:
Integrating Variable Renewable Energy in the Bangladesh Power System: A Planning Analysis

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (938.25 KB)
1,630 downloads
English Text (109.72 KB)
60 downloads
Published
2018-07
ISSN
Date
2018-07-16
Editor(s)
Abstract
Integration of large-scale variable renewable energy (VRE) generation resources -- wind and solar -- into national grids has been gaining importance as costs of these technologies, especially that of solar, continues to fall rapidly. However, there continues to be a lack of a framework to systematically analyze the role played by large-scale VRE integration for most developing countries. This study develops such a framework and applies it to analyze VRE policies in Bangladesh. The study uses a least-cost planning approach to assess the volume of solar and wind that can technically and economically be integrated in the power system, accounting for spinning reserve generation capacity requirements and adequacy of transmission capacity. The study shows that solar and wind can provide a significant share of the 13 to 21 GW of new capacity needed by 2025 to meet rapidly growing electricity demand, although most of it does not pass the cost/benefit test in the near term till 2022. Efforts are also required to cope with what otherwise would be a large and costly increase in on-demand ("spinning") reserve capacity. The analysis demonstrates how an investment strategy to cover peak demand, and prudent changes in system operational practices, allow for the system to provide the needed reserve capacity without a prohibitive increase in system costs. In addition, the study examines the adequacy of transmission capacity for the first large-scale solar and wind project in Bangladesh.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Bankuti, Miklos; Chattopadhyay, Debabrata; Song, Chong-Suk. 2018. Integrating Variable Renewable Energy in the Bangladesh Power System: A Planning Analysis. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8517. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29990 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Climate and Social Sustainability in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Contexts
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Cuesta Leiva, Jose Antonio; Huff, Connor
    Climate change is widely recognized as a driver of violent conflict, but its broader social effects remain less understood. Ignoring these dimensions risks a vicious cycle where climate policies might undermine socially just adaptation. Evidence is still limited on how climate shocks influence political participation, trust, or migration. This paper helps fill that gap by examining links between climate change, conflict, and social sustainability, with a focus on inclusion, resilience, cohesion, and legitimacy. Using secondary data from 2019–24, the study applies simple correlation-based methods to test three hypotheses on the nature, severity, and composition of these associations. The analysis combines multiple climate impact measures, new conflict classifications, recent social sustainability frameworks, and controls for population and geography. The results reveal strong correlations—not causation—between climate events and contexts of fragility, conflict, and violence. Climate impacts are most pronounced in both national and subnational conflict settings. The study also finds robust links between fragility, conflict, and violence and low levels of social sustainability, reflecting its role as both a driver and consequence of conflict. Some dimensions—such as violent events and insecurity—appear weaker in areas most affected by climate shocks. Two of the hypotheses are supported, and one remains inconclusive.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Kim, Galileu; Kumar, Tanu; Ramalho, Rita; Russell, Stuart
    State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.
  • Publication
    South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08) Baez, Javier E.; Kshirsagar, Varun
    Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.
  • Publication
    Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Adarov, Amat; Kose, M. Ayhan; Vorisek, Dana
    The world faces a pressing challenge to meet key development objectives amid slowing growth and rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. With the number of job seekers rising rapidly, infrastructure shortfalls continuing to be large, and climate costs mounting, the case for a significant investment push has never been stronger. Yet the capacity to respond in many emerging markets and developing economies has eroded. Since the global financial crisis, investment growth has slowed to about half its pace in the 2000s, with both public and private investment weakening. Foreign direct investment inflows—a critical source of capital, technology, and managerial know-how—have also fallen sharply and become increasingly concentrated, leaving low-income countries with only a marginal share. The risks of further retrenchment are significant, as trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and elevated debt levels continue to weigh on investment. Reigniting momentum will require ambitious domestic reforms to strengthen institutions, rebuild macro-fiscal stability, and deepen trade and investment integration—the foundations of a supportive business climate. At the same time, international cooperation is indispensable. A renewed commitment to a predictable system of cross-border trade and investment flows, combined with scaled-up financial support and sustained technical assistance, is essential to help emerging markets and developing economies—especially low-income countries and economies in fragile and conflict situations—bridge financing gaps and implement the domestic reforms needed to restore investment as an engine of growth, jobs, and development.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Integrating Variable Renewable Energy into Power System Operations
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-01) Chatopadhyay, Debabrata; Nikolakakis, Thomas
    Wind and solar energy is a fast-growing share of the global energy mix. But integrating them into power-system operations requires significant adaptations to compensate for their variability. Solutions include increasing the amount of flexible generation within the system, combining, and dispersing variable resources to smooth aggregate output, expanding the transmission network, using smart technology to control supply and demand, and storing electricity.
  • Publication
    Integrating Climate Model Data into Power System Planning
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015) Chattopadhyay, Debabrata; Jordan, Rhonda L.
    Significant multiyear and multi decade variations in intermittent renewable resources hold major implications for power system investments. They have been using extensive hydrology data for many years to represent hydrological risks in their planning. Climate model data are particularly suited for the assessment of longer-term variability. A good grasp of seasonal, multiyear, and multi decade trends is essential in assessing the economic merits of investments in renewable resources and the extent to which such resources can complement one other or may need to be backed up by further investments in nonrenewable sources. For instance, planners of hydro-dominated systems have learned to use risk-based criteria such as so-called 1-in-50-year drought coverage to deal with the risk posed by extremely dry years. That climate models can provide scenarios over several decades makes them equally applicable to wind and solar planning. Good-quality data generated by climate models - both historical and projected over decades are available for all countries at little or no cost. Such data can and should form part of power system planning, complementing more detailed, but expensive, renewable energy resource mapping and actual observations and measurements of wind, solar, and hydro power.
  • Publication
    Incorporating Energy from Renewable Resources into Power System Planning
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-12) Madrigal, Marcellino; Jordan, Rhonda Lenai
    Incorporating energy from renewable resources into power system planning is an important issue. As countries generate more energy from renewable sources, that energy must become part of the power-system planning process. In 2004, investments in all forms of clean energy represented about 20 percent of total global investment in generation capacity. By 2011, that share had topped 40 percent. This paper explains the various reasons behind the push for renewable sources, chief among them being reducing climate-altering emissions. The paper answers the following questions giving a brief synopsis of each: What is the key challenge? What solutions are available? What are the key lessons learned. A few case studies are also used throughout to illustrate key points.
  • Publication
    Mapping Smart-Grid Modernization in Power Distribution Systems
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015) Oguah, Samuel; Chattopadhyay, Debabrata
    Smart grids are an essential element in improving efficiency that is relevant to utilities in all countries - from advanced utilities with robust grids to those whose grids barely keep up with demand. This note provides practical guidance for stakeholders in defining smart-grid goals, identifying priorities, and structuring investment plans. While most of these principles apply to any part of the electricity grid (transmission, distribution, off-grid), the note focuses on the distribution network. Modernizing the grid can help utilities address issues in service delivery such as reducing technical and commercial losses, promoting energy conservation, managing peak demand, improving reliability, integrating high levels of distributed generation (such as mini-grids and power sources with variable output), and accommodating the rising use of electric vehicles. To harness these benefits, it is essential that well-designed plans be developed for the implementation of smart-grid goals and objectives. Smart elements in a grid will differ greatly depending on the state of the power system and the country context. A smart-grid roadmap will therefore vary considerably across countries, but smart technology is essential for successful modernization of any grid.
  • Publication
    Variable Renewable Energy Integration and Planning Study
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11-09) World Bank
    This report is intended to answer the following critical questions for the future planning of the Pakistan electricity sector: What is the optimal energy mix over the next 10 to 20 years when considering economic, technical, and environmental factors? What are the implications for the basket cost of power, energy security, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? Can the Pakistan electricity system handle much higher penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as solar and wind? If so, what are the implications for other generation sources such as hydropower and thermal plants already operating or planned? What capital investments, changes in operation, and planning decisions are needed to achieve an optimal energy mix, and when do they need to occur? The report presents the analysis and findings of a major study carried out over a period of 18 months involving all the key federal agencies involved in power system planning

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Interoperability Between Central Bank Digital Currency Systems and Fast Payment Systems
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-02) World Bank
    Central banks around the world are actively researching and investigating the benefits, challenges, and design options of wholesale and retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Since CBDCs are one of the most critical components of a national payment system (NPS), it is important that their interoperability with other payment systems is one of the key considerations in the design process. The ITS Technology and Innovation (ITSI) team, in collaboration with the World Banks’s Finance Competitiveness and Innovation (FCI) Global Practice, has conducted technology design experiments on two specific scenarios regarding CBDC system interoperability with fast payment systems (FPS). In the first scenario, the experiment investigated the option of settling FPS obligations in a wholesale CBDC system, including the option to reserve funds to guarantee the settlement of FPS net obligations. In the second scenario, the team investigated the interoperability between users within the FPS and retail CBDC users, including the transfer of funds among both types of users, using common services such as address resolution services. This experiment illustrated how CBDC systems can interoperate with retail payment systems through an interlinking bridge that was used to route messages and application programming interface (API) calls among different systems. The programmability features of distributed ledge technology (DLT) were used to link the settlement in CBDC to the transfer of funds in the FPS. The technical applicability for this type of interoperability was demonstrated through the experiments, with the caveat that these experiments do not take into account complexities that may be involved with live systems.
  • Publication
    Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-07-31) Wang, Huihui; Otoo, Nathaniel; Dsane-Selby, Lydia
    Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) was established in 2003 as a major vehicle to achieve the country’s commitment of Universal Health Coverage. The government has earmarked value-added tax to finance NHIS in addition to deduction from Social Security Trust (SSNIT) and premium payment. However, the scheme has been running under deficit since 2009 due to expansion of coverage, increase in service use, and surge in expenditure. Consequently, Ghana National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA) had to reduce investment fund, borrow loans and delay claims reimbursement to providers in order to fill the gap. This study aimed to provide policy recommendations on how to improve efficiency and financial sustainability of NHIS based on health sector expenditure and NHIS claims expenditure review. The analysis started with an overall health sector expenditure review, zoomed into NHIS claims expenditure in Volta region as a miniature for the scheme, and followed by identifictation of factors affecting level and efficiency of expenditure. This study is the first attempt to undertake systematic in-depth analysis of NHIS claims expenditure. Based on the study findings, it is recommended that NHIS establish a stronger expenditure control system in place for long-term sustainability. The majority of NHIS claims expenditure is for outpatient consultations, district hospitals and above, certain member groups (e.g., informal group, members with more than five visits in a year). These distribution patterns are closely related to NHIS design features that encourages expenditure surge. For example, year-round open registration boosted adverse selection during enrollment, essentially fee-for-service provider mechanisms incentivized oversupply but not better quality and cost-effectiveness, and zero patient cost-sharing by patients reduced prudence in seeking care and caused overuse. Moreover, NHIA is not equipped to control expenditure or monitor effect of cost-containment policies. The claims processing system is mostly manual and does not collect information on service delivery and results. No mechanisms exist to monitor and correct providers’ abonormal behaviors, as well as engage NHIS members for and engaging members for information verification, case management and prevention.
  • Publication
    Renewing with Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-03-29) World Bank
    Latin America and the Caribbean suffered the largest death toll from Covid‐19 across developing regions and the sharpest decline in economic activity. With fewer school days and lower employment rates, with higher public debt and more firms under stress, the effects could be long‐lasting. The crisis also triggered large‐scale economic restructuring, with productivity higher in the expanding than in the contracting sectors. Accelerated digitization could instill dynamism in finance, trade and labor markets, but it may amplify inequality within and across the countries in the region. Technology could transform the energy sector as well. Latin America and the Caribbean has the cleanest and potentially cheapest electricity generation matrix of all developing regions. But its electricity is the most expensive, due mainly to inefficiencies. Distributed generation within countries and electricity trade across countries, could make energy greener and cheaper, provided that the pricing is right.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    The World Bank Annual Report 2001 :Volume 1. Year in Review
    (Washington, DC, 2001) World Bank
    This Annual Report covers the period from July 1, 2000, to June 30, 2001, and details the World Bank strategy for meeting the poverty challenge. After the Introduction, Chapter 1 provides an overview of Bank activities in 2001 that focused on multi-dimensional support, improved development effectiveness, increased funding volume, formalized the country business model, evolved country assistance strategies by preparing them in consultation, developed investment vehicles to support low-income countries, created a task force to consider the response to the needs of middle-income countries, developed an innovative IBRD and IDA program and project lending to support strong national programs, assessment of the Strategic Compact, the use of the World Bank Institute to empower through knowledge and setting out a strategic framework for future directions. Chapter 2 describes the role of the Board of Executive Directors. Chapter 3 examines the thematic issues the Bank is tackling, such as addressing the social, institutional, and economic dimensions of poverty; investing in people; supporting private sector development; building strong financial systems; and building effective legal and judicial systems. Chapter 4 discusses the Bank's role in fighting poverty and aiding development region by region. Chapter 5 looks at Bank project performance. Chapter 6 focuses on Bank partnerships, Chapter 7 sums up approved projects, and Chapter 8 provides organizational information. This report is in 2 volumes. Volume 2 comprises the complete Management's Discussion and Analysis, audited financial statements, and appendices.