Publication: The Demography of Youth in Developing Countries and its Economic Implications
Loading...
Published
2006-10
ISSN
Date
2012-06-26
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The number of young people is reaching unprecedented levels in most developing countries. In many countries, especially in East Asia and Latin America, youth populations are at or near their peak, and will decline in coming decades. In other countries, especially in Africa and South Asia, youth populations will continue growing for several decades. From an economic perspective, absolute numbers may be less important than the growth rate or relative size of youth cohorts. Growth rates and the ratio of youth to working-age population reached a peak in the 1970s or 1980s in most developing countries. The worst economic pressures of youth demography may have already occurred in many countries, although significant pressure will continue in Africa and South Asia.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Lam, David. 2006. The Demography of Youth in Developing Countries and its Economic Implications. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4022. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9009 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Rigging the Scores: Corruption through Scoring Rule Manipulation in Public Procurement Auctions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-02)Public procurement is highly susceptible to corruption, especially in developing countries. Although open auctions are widely adopted to curb it, this paper finds that corruption remains prevalent even within this procurement format. Procurement officers can collaborate with firms to manipulate scoring rules, ensuring predetermined winners, while corrupt firms submit noncompetitive bids to meet minimum bidder requirements. Using extensive data from Chinese public procurement auctions, the paper introduces model-driven statistical tools to detect such corruption, identifying a corruption rate of 65 percent. A procurement expert audit survey confirms the tools’ reliability, with a 91 percent probability that experts recognize suspicious scoring rules when flagged. Firm-level analysis reveals that local, state-owned, and less productive firms are favored in corrupt auctions. Lastly, the paper explores policy implications. Analysis of the national anti-corruption campaign since 2012 suggests that general investigations may be insufficient to address deeply ingrained corrupt practices. Using counterfactuals based on an estimated structural model, the paper shows that implementing anonymous call-for-tender evaluations could improve social welfare by 10 percent by eliminating suspicious rules and encouraging broader participation.Publication Labor Demand in the Age of Generative AI: Early Evidence from the U.S. Job Posting Data(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-18)This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job displacement effects of generative artificial intelligence. The identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low artificial intelligence substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT’s launch, conditioning on similar generative artificial intelligence exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. The analysis uses 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2025Q2. The findings show that the number of postings for occupations with above-median artificial intelligence substitution scores fell by an average of 12 percent relative to those with below-median scores. The effect increased from 6 percent in the first year after the launch to 18 percent by the third year. Losses were particularly acute for entry-level positions that require neither advanced degrees (18 percent) nor extensive experience (20 percent), as well as those in administrative support (40 percent) and professional services (30 percent). Although generative artificial intelligence generates new occupations and enhances productivity, which may increase labor demand, early evidence suggests that some occupations may be less likely to be complemented by generative artificial intelligence than others.Publication Investment Policy Reforms and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-01)Foreign direct investment has the potential to introduce much-needed capital and expertise in emerging and developing economies. To attract foreign direct investment, many countries have eased restrictions on foreign ownership in various sectors, reformed their institutions, and set up investment promotion agencies. Until the mid-2010s, Ethiopia remained one of the few countries that resisted this trend, with several stringent restrictions in place on foreign direct investment entry and operations in the country. This study employs a synthetic control method to examine patterns in foreign capital inflows following a series of investment policy reforms that were substantively introduced in the mid-2010s (circa 2015). The study offers evidence that investment policy reforms contributed to a significant foreign direct investment inflow in Ethiopia, compared to what would have occurred in the absence of these policies. An alternative strategy that conservatively specifies the donor country pool using an AI-assisted deep search technique changes the donor pool weighting matrix of the synthetic control method, but the estimated policy effects largely remain robust to this specification. The findings highlight the importance of targeted reforms in promoting foreign direct investment inflow in developing countries.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Berlin Workshop Series 2007 : Development and the Next Generation(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007)This publication discusses development challenges and successes pertaining to the young generation, while considering how economic policies can help young people during the period of most fundamental changes in their life-the transition from youth to adult status- leaving school and becoming employed, keeping healthy, starting a family, and assuming a responsible role in society. Its main message: investing in the human capital of this generation is critical if developing counties are to make further progress in stimulating growth and reducing poverty. Moreover, it is particularly important to safeguard and develop this human capital during youth transition. The book is organized thus: Part I deals with youthful transitions in a changing world, providing an overview of demographic and other socioeconomic challenges and discusses broadly the implications of these challenges on the youth population; Part II provides thoughts on the transition from schooling; Part III focuses on the youth bulge in developing economies and whether or not it can be an advantage in the labor market; Part IV considers the topic of migration and the youth and examines issues that are particularly related to immigrants and their children; Part V examines the changes in behavior of the young regarding family formation and how these changes are likely to affect the welfare of the young both now and in the future; and Part VI focuses on the concern of how to direct young people's creative potential to promote productive transition to citizenship.Publication Uganda - Demography and Economic Growth in Uganda(World Bank, 2011-12-01)Uganda has one of the youngest and most rapidly growing populations in the world. The most important demographic issue for Uganda is related to the age structure rather than the overall size of its population. A very young population represents a major challenge for Uganda in the short and medium term. In order to change its population age structure faster, Uganda needs to accelerate the demographic transition, namely the shift from high levels of mortality and fertility to low levels of mortality and fertility. Once mortality (especially infant and child) and fertility rates begin to fall, young age dependency ratio will follow the same trend albeit with some lag. This will have positive - and quite possibly major - implications for the economic growth. Given the high fertility and reduced mortality over the last several decades, Uganda's population will be growing rapidly over the next several decades. Uganda's economic future looks brighter under assumptions of demographic change.Publication Policy Note on Population Growth and its Implications in Timor-Leste(Washington, DC, 2008-10-09)The report offers a description of current demographics, including density, population structure, and the components of population change. It explains projection procedures and provides results, including some alternative projections. The report assesses consequences of population growth for key sectors of society such as education and employment and offers options for modifying future population trends, focusing on high fertility and the reasons behind it. A brief discussion of the health sector highlights problems of promoting family planning. Comparisons are made where appropriate with other developing countries, particularly within Southeast Asia.Publication Population Health and Economic Growth(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)Health is a direct source of human welfare and also an instrument for raising income levels. The authors discuss a number of mechanisms through which health can affect income, focusing on worker productivity, children's education, savings and investment, and demographic structure. As well as the impact of current illness, health may have large effects on prospective life spans and life cycle behavior. Studies suggest there may be a large effect of health and nutrition in uteri, and in the first few years of life, on physical and cognitive development and economic success as an adult. Macroeconomic evidence for an effect on growth is mixed, with evidence of a large effect in some studies. However, there is a possibility that gains from health may be outweighed by the effect of increased survival on population growth, until a fertility transition occurs. The low cost of some health interventions that have large-scale effects on population health makes health investments a promising policy tool for growth in developing countries. In addition, higher priority could be given to tackling widespread 'neglected' diseases that is, diseases with low mortality burdens that are not priorities from a pure health perspective, but that do have substantial effects on productivity.Publication Statistics for Small States : A Supplement to the World Development Indicators 2009(Washington, DC, 2009)In 2000 the World Bank made a corporate commitment to organize a small states Forum each year in the context of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank annual meetings. The forum is intended to raise the profile of small states issues and provide an opportunity for small state officials to bring their views and ideas to the attention of the international community. Forty-eight World Bank members comprise the small states forum, all but five having populations below 1.5 million. These countries are all included in the World Development Indicators database, but countries with populations of less than one million do not appear in the main tables of the print publication. To better serve this important segment of the Bank's membership and to help highlight the challenges they face, this special supplement to the World Development Indicators (WDI) has been produced, covering critical development factors. The data in this supplement cover 40 members of the small states forum excluding the high-income countries of Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Cyprus, Estonia, Iceland, Malta, Qatar, and San Marino.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
No results found.