Publication: "Global Development Finance" Projects a Brighter Outlook for Developing Countries
Loading...
Published
2000-04
ISSN
Date
2012-08-13
Editor(s)
Abstract
Prospects for developing countries have improved considerably in the past six months finds the World Bank's just-released "Global Development Finance 2000." Industrial country output and world trade growth have become stronger and more broadly based. Although prices for primary commodities have firmed, inflationary pressures in the world economy remain contained. And while interest rates in some industrial countries have risen, spreads on lending to developing countries have fallen sharply--and capital flows to developing countries have stabilized. Developing countries grew an estimated 3.3 percent in 1999, up 0.6 percentage points from the estimate in last fall's "Global Economic Prospects" and more than twice the pace in 1998 (table 1). Developing country growth is expected to rise to 4.5-5.0 percent in 2000-02. During the recent financial crisis 45 developing countries containing 1.6 billion people experienced a drop in per capita income. But in 2000 those numbers are expected to fall to 14 countries with 140 million people. Still, the developing world's adjustment to the recent crisis is far from complete. Growth in 2000-02 will likely remain below trends before the crisis because frailties exposed and exacerbated by the crisis will take time to address. Moreover, the process of recovery varies greatly by country.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Lynn, Robert; De Klein, Annette; Farah, Caroline; Keyfitz, Robert; Riordan, Mick; Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Wolfe, Bert. 2000. "Global Development Finance" Projects a Brighter Outlook for Developing Countries. PREM Notes; No. 38. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11436 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
- Publication What Effect Will East Asia's Crisis Have on Developing Countries?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 1998-03)This note summarizes recent projections on the longer-term effects of the East Asia's financial crisis, and the significant effect already felt in developing countries. Five main points are examined, as follows: 1) though trade will drive the recovery, adjustment will be deep and protracted, in the region, mostly in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand; 2) developing countries will be mostly affected, since reductions in growth are estimated to double due to high trade multipliers, terms of trade movements, as well as tight monetary and fiscal policies in those countries relying on private capital flows; 3) because of lower oil prices, oil importing countries stand to lose the most, with Latin America, the Middle East, and North and Sub-Saharan Africa the hardest hit; 4) the crisis will bear a significant effect on the world economy, though not nearly as damaging as the 1973 and 1978 oil shocks; and 5) increased risks, such as a spillover or cutoff in credit, for developing countries are estimated, though predicted to be manageable.
- Publication Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing Country Industrialization?(2009-11-01)Most economic analyses of climate change have focused on the aggregate impact on countries of mitigation actions. The authors depart first in disaggregating the impact by sector, focusing particularly on manufacturing output and exports because of the potential growth consequences. Second, they decompose the impact of an agreement on emissions reductions into three components: the change in the price of carbon due to each country s emission cuts per se; the further change in this price due to emissions tradability; and the changes due to any international transfers (private and public). Manufacturing output and exports in low carbon intensity countries such as Brazil are not adversely affected. In contrast, in high carbon intensity countries, such as China and India, even a modest agreement depresses manufacturing output by 6-7 percent and manufacturing exports by 9-11 percent. The increase in the carbon price induced by emissions tradability hurts manufacturing output most while the Dutch disease effects of transfers hurt exports most. If the growth costs of these structural changes are judged to be substantial, the current policy consensus, which favors emissions tradability (on efficiency grounds) supplemented with financial transfers (on equity grounds), needs re-consideration.
- Publication Armenia : A Cloudy Outlook(Washington, DC, 2014-10)Economic growth slowed to 3.5 percent in 2013 and 2.7 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2014. The slowdown is the result of a number of factors such as slackening foreign direct investment (FDI), dependence on a limited number of commodity exports, and a difficult external economic environment. Consumer lending and remittances continued to support private consumption, but under-execution of government spending suppressed aggregate demand. On the supply side, the mining and energy sectors performed particularly badly, offsetting positive developments in manufacturing. Year-on-year inflation reached close to zero in August 2014, following a long decline since energy price increases caused it to flare up in July 2013. Twelve-month inflation slowed to 0.8 percent in August, well below the central bank s 2.5 5.5 percent target range. The decline came despite new electricity price increases in the same month. On the whole, second-round price pressures were minimal. Core inflation, excluding prices for food and fuel, was being held below headline inflation in the second half of the year.
- Publication Reconciling Climate Change and Trade Policy(2009-11-01)There is growing clamor in industrial countries for additional border taxes on imports from countries with lower carbon prices. The authors confirm the findings of other research that unilateral emissions cuts by industrial countries will have minimal carbon leakage effects. However, output and exports of energy-intensive manufactures are projected to decline potentially creating pressure for trade action. A key factor affecting the impact of any border taxes is whether they are based on the carbon content of imports or the carbon content in domestic production. Their quantitative estimates suggest that the former action when applied to all merchandise imports would address competitiveness and environmental concerns in high income countries but with serious consequences for trading partners. For example, China s manufacturing exports would decline by one-fifth and those of all low and middle income countries by 8 per cent; the corresponding declines in real income would be 3.7 per cent and 2.4 per cent. Border tax adjustment based on the carbon content in domestic production, especially if applied to both imports and exports, would broadly address the competitiveness concerns of producers in high income countries and less seriously damage developing country trade.
- Publication Welfare and Poverty Effects of Global Agricultural and Trade Policies Using the Linkage Model(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-06)This paper analyzes the economic effects of agricultural price and merchandise trade policies around the world as of 2004 on global markets, net farm incomes, and national and regional economic welfare and poverty, using the global economy wide Linkage model, new estimates of agricultural price distortions for developing countries, and poverty elasticity's approach. It addresses two questions: to what extent are policies as of 2004 still reducing rewards from farming in developing countries and thereby adding to inequality across countries in farm household incomes? Are they depressing value added more in primary agriculture than in the rest of the economy of developing countries, and earnings of unskilled workers more than of owners of other factors of production, thereby potentially contributing to inequality and poverty within developing countries (given that farm incomes are well below non-farm incomes in most developing countries and that agriculture there is intensive in the use of unskilled labor)? Results are presented for the key countries and regions of the world and for the world as a whole. They reveal that, by moving to free markets, income inequality between countries will be reduced at least slightly, all but one-sixth of the gains to developing countries will come from agricultural policy reform, unskilled workers in developing countries the majority of whom work on farms will benefit most from reform, net farm incomes in developing countries will rise by 6 percent compared with 2 percent for non-agricultural value added, and the number of people surviving on less than US$1 a day will drop 3 percent globally.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
- Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.
- Publication Morocco Economic Update, Winter 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)Despite the drought causing a modest deceleration of overall GDP growth to 3.2 percent, the Moroccan economy has exhibited some encouraging trends in 2024. Non-agricultural growth has accelerated to an estimated 3.8 percent, driven by a revitalized industrial sector and a rebound in gross capital formation. Inflation has dropped below 1 percent, allowing Bank al-Maghrib to begin easing its monetary policy. While rural labor markets remain depressed, the economy has added close to 162,000 jobs in urban areas. Morocco’s external position remains strong overall, with a moderate current account deficit largely financed by growing foreign direct investment inflows, underpinned by solid investor confidence indicators. Despite significant spending pressures, the debt-to-GDP ratio is slowly declining.
- Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
- Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
- Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.