Are The Poverty Effects of Trade Policies Invisible?

creativeworkseries.issn 1564-698X Verma, Monika Hertel, Thomas W. Valenzuela, Ernesto 2013-05-20T20:05:39Z 2013-05-20T20:05:39Z 2011-05-31
dc.description.abstract Beginning with the WTO's Doha Development Agenda and establishment of the Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty by 50 percent by 2015, poverty impacts of trade reforms have become central to the global development agenda. This has been particularly true of agricultural trade reforms due to the importance of grains in the diets of the poor, presence of relatively higher protection in agriculture, as well as heavy concentration of global poverty in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of income. Yet some in this debate have argued that, given the extreme volatility in agricultural commodity markets, the additional price and therefore poverty impacts due to trade liberalization might well be indiscernible. This paper formally tests the “invisibility hypothesis” using the method of stochastic simulation in a trade-poverty modeling framework. The hypothesis test is based on the comparison of two samples of price and poverty distributions. The first originates solely from the inherent variability in global staple grains markets, while the second combines the effects of inherent market variability with those of trade reform in these same markets. Results, at the national and stratum level indicate that the short-run poverty impacts of full trade liberalization in staple grains trade worldwide, are distinguishable in only four of the fifteen countries, suggesting that impacts of more modest agricultural trade reforms are indeed likely to be invisible in short run. Countries that show statistically significant short run impacts are the ones characterized by high staple grains tariffs and/or a moderate degree of grain markets variability. Within each country, results are heterogeneous. In two thirds of the sample countries, agriculturally self-employed poor experience statistically significant poverty impacts from trade liberalization. However, this figure is under a third for all the other strata. en
dc.identifier.citation World Bank Economic Review
dc.identifier.issn 1564-698X
dc.identifier.other doi:10.1093/wber/lhr014
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseries World Bank Economic Review
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder World Bank
dc.subject agricultural prices
dc.subject commodity price
dc.subject commodity prices
dc.subject consumer price
dc.subject consumer prices
dc.subject cost of living
dc.subject domestic markets
dc.subject expenditure
dc.subject factor prices
dc.subject international trade
dc.subject market condition
dc.subject market price
dc.subject market volatility
dc.subject price changes
dc.subject price fluctuations
dc.subject price variation
dc.subject price variations
dc.subject price volatility
dc.subject volatility
dc.subject world market
dc.title Are The Poverty Effects of Trade Policies Invisible? en
dc.type Journal Article en
dc.type Article de journal fr
dc.type Artículo de revista es
dspace.entity.type Publication
dspace.entity.type Publication 2013-05-20
okr.doctype Journal Article
okr.globalpractice Agriculture
okr.globalpractice Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpractice Poverty
okr.globalpractice Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience
okr.globalpractice Finance and Markets
okr.globalpractice Finance and Markets
okr.globalpractice Trade and Competitiveness
okr.identifier.doi 10.1093/wber/lhr014
okr.journal.nbpages 190-211
okr.language.supported en
okr.peerreview Academic Peer Review Bangladesh Brazil Chile Colombia Indonesia Malawi Mexico Mozambique Peru Philippines Thailand Uganda Venezuela, Republica Bolivariana de Vietnam Zambia
okr.topic Agriculture :: Agribusiness
okr.topic Finance and Financial Sector Development :: Debt Markets
okr.topic International Economics and Trade :: Access to Markets
okr.topic International Economics and Trade :: Free Trade
okr.topic International Economics and Trade :: Trade Policy
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Theory & Research
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Markets and Market Access
okr.topic Private Sector Development :: Emerging Markets
okr.topic Rural Development :: Rural Poverty Reduction Strategies
okr.volume 25(2)
relation.isJournalIssueOfPublication ac7d5a59-3558-4044-b65c-98114b3c77b1
relation.isJournalOfPublication c41eae2f-cf94-449d-86b7-f062aebe893f
relation.isJournalVolumeOfPublication e0142101-3f2f-4335-8ea0-6dbed470dc64
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