Publication: Poverty Impacts of Improved Agricultural Productivity: Opportunities for Genetically Modified Crops
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Date
2010
ISSN
1522936X
Published
2010
Author(s)
Ivanic, Maros
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Abstract
Constraints on land and water resources, growth in population, and an apparent slowdown in agricultural productivity raise concerns that food prices may rise substantially in the coming decades. A key question is whether policies aimed at increasing agricultural productivity may be effective in reversing the long-run trend and bringing about significant reductions in food prices. This article uses a global general equilibrium model and a set of microeconomic household models for a sample of 26 developing countries to assess potential implications of higher agricultural productivity--such as through the adoption of genetically modified plants--for household incomes, farmer profits, and poverty. Higher agricultural productivity resulting from increased investments in research and development is found capable of significantly lowering poverty by lowering the cost of consumption of the poorest households without significantly hurting farmers' returns. We also found that raising agricultural productivity among the developing countries only is sufficient to achieve most poverty reduction in the global scenario.
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Publication Macroeconomic and Distributional Impacts of Jatropha-based Biodiesel in Mali(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06)Mali, a landlocked West African nation at the southern edge of the Sahara Desert, has introduced a program to produce biodiesel using jatropha curcas, a non-edible shrub widely available throughout the country by farmers for generations as a living fence for their gardens. The aim of the program is to partially substitute diesel, which is entirely supplied through imports, with domestic biodiesel produced from a feedstock that does not have any commercial value otherwise and thus has zero opportunity cost. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to investigate economy-wide and distributional impacts of large-scale jatropha production on different types of lands, and conversion of jatropha oil to biodiesel for domestic consumption. It assesses impacts on agricultural and other commodity markets, resource and factor markets, and international trade. 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Are they depressing value added more in primary agriculture than in the rest of the economy of developing countries, and earnings of unskilled workers more than of owners of other factors of production, thereby potentially contributing to inequality and poverty within developing countries (given that farm incomes are well below non-farm incomes in most developing countries and that agriculture there is intensive in the use of unskilled labor)? Results are presented for the key countries and regions of the world and for the world as a whole. They reveal that, by moving to free markets, income inequality between countries will be reduced at least slightly, all but one-sixth of the gains to developing countries will come from agricultural policy reform, unskilled workers in developing countries the majority of whom work on farms will benefit most from reform, net farm incomes in developing countries will rise by 6 percent compared with 2 percent for non-agricultural value added, and the number of people surviving on less than US$1 a day will drop 3 percent globally.Publication Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton : A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-05)The authors provide estimates of the economic impact of initial adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton and of its potential impacts beyond the few countries where it is currently common. They use the latest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and model. The results suggest that by following the lead of China and South Africa, adoption of GM cotton varieties by other developing countries-especially in Sub-Saharan Africa-could provide even larger proportionate gains to farmer and national welfare than in those first-adopting countries. Furthermore, the estimated gains are shown to exceed those from a successful campaign under the World Trade Organization's Doha Development Agenda to reduce and remove cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally.Publication Genetically Modified Rice Adoption: Implications for Welfare and Poverty Alleviation(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2004-08)The first generation of genetically modified (GM) crop varieties sought to increase producer profitability through cost reductions or higher yields, while the next generation of GM food research is focusing on breeding for attributes of interest to consumers. 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