Publication: The Seasonality of Conflict
Loading...
Published
2020-08
ISSN
Date
2020-09-03
Author(s)
Guardado, Jenny
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper investigates whether poor employment prospects of potential insurgents help to fuel conflict. The paper provides a new test of this "opportunity cost mechanism" using one of the largest shocks to labor demand in agricultural societies: harvest. Theoretically, the paper shows that because seasonal harvest shocks are temporary and anticipated, they change opportunity costs while keeping the dynamic benefits of fighting constant, yielding unbiased estimates even if those benefits are unobserved. In contrast, many other shocks in the conflict literature are persistent and unanticipated, thus also varying the dynamic benefits of fighting that confound estimates of the opportunity cost mechanism. Empirically, the paper estimates of the effect of harvest shocks on conflict intensity in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan using subnational variation in the timing and intensity of harvest driven by local climatic conditions. Consistent with the opportunity cost mechanism, the results show that the onset of harvest usually reduces the number of insurgent attacks.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Guardado, Jenny; Pennings, Steven. 2020. The Seasonality of Conflict. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9373. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34421 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08)Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.Publication The Evolution of Local Participatory Democracy in Nepal(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05)Nepal is, according to its constitution, among the world’s most decentralized countries, with a long and complex tradition of local-level public participation. This paper traces the evolution of Nepal’s modern participatory institutions, examining the extent to which they are “induced” by external interventions versus being “organically” rooted in indigenous practices. The paper identifies three broad phases: an initial focus on participation in project implementation; a subsequent phase that expanded citizen engagement; and a third phase of citizen empowerment, culminating in the 2015 federal constitution, which granted unprecedented local autonomy. The analysis yields five key findings. First, over the past 50 years, successive reforms have progressively expanded opportunities for citizens to influence local decision-making. Second, these reforms have integrated traditional participatory mechanisms into formal institutions of local government. Third, although central-level initiatives exist, most participatory platforms continue to operate at the local level. Fourth, the federal constitution has created a new landscape of local democracy, embedding autonomy and accountability. Fifth, although they are still valued in many ethnic and territorial communities, traditional participatory practices are gradually disappearing. The paper concludes by offering policy recommendations to help donor agencies and governments strengthen Nepal’s democratic trajectory. It argues that effective interventions should build on Nepal’s deep participatory traditions while recognizing the constitutional reality of far-reaching local autonomy.Publication Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.Publication Closing the Gender Gap in Entrepreneurship: Overcoming Challenges in Law and Practice for Female Entrepreneurs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)Despite significant strides toward gender equality, women around the world continue to encounter systemic obstacles that hinder their entrepreneurial success. This paper systematically reviews the literature on the barriers female entrepreneurs face and the solutions proposed to overcome these challenges. It discusses institutional factors, financial factors, human capital factors, and social and cultural factors. The literature overview is complemented by a series of stylized facts that illustrate how overcoming some of these existing barriers is correlated with improved women’s entrepreneurship and female labor force participation, drawing on the World Bank’s Women, Business and the Law database as well as the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys. The findings underscore the need for creating an enabling environment where women can thrive as entrepreneurs.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Social Protection in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-04)This study examines the role of social protection programming, and programming design and implementation features, that are prominent in fragile and conflict-affected states. The main objective is to build on existing, available information from a sample of fragile and conflict-affected countries and develop operational guidance that addresses policy, design, and implementation issues and offers operational solutions for social protection programming and policy making in different fragile settings. The analysis showcases the universe of social protection objectives that are evident in these countries as well as the programming trends, types, coverage, and expenditure patterns. The paper also examines dimensions specific to fragile and conflict-affected settings in implementing social protection and labor programs, such as social cohesion, the role of community-driven development, and postwar benefits. Finally, the study highlights social protection and labor program delivery in seven different country contexts, and discusses the country-specific programming options chosen to achieve the objectives and overcome capacity and operational constraints.Publication Fragility and Conflict(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-02-27)Fragility and conflict pose a critical threat to the global goal of ending extreme poverty. Between 1990 and 2015, successful development strategies reduced the proportion of the world’s people living in extreme poverty from 36 to 10 percent. But in many fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS), poverty is stagnating or getting worse. The number of people living in proximity to conflict has nearly doubled worldwide since 2007. In the Middle East and North Africa, one in five people now lives in such conditions. The number of forcibly displaced persons worldwide has also more than doubled in the same period, exceeding 70 million in 2017. If current trends continue, by the end of 2020, the number of extremely poor people living in economies affected by fragility and conflict will exceed the number of poor people in all other settings combined. This book shows why addressing fragility and conflict is vital for poverty goals and charts directions for action. It presents new estimates of welfare in FCS, filling gaps in previous knowledge, and analyzes the multidimensional nature of poverty in these settings. It shows that data deprivation in FCS has prevented an accurate global picture of fragility, poverty, and their interactions, and it explains how innovative new measurement strategies are tackling these challenges. The book discusses the long-term consequences of conflict and introduces a data-driven classification of countries by fragility profile, showing opportunities for tailored policy interventions and the need for monitoring multiple markers of fragility. The book strengthens understanding of what poverty reduction in FCS will require and what it can achieve.Publication The International Finance Corporation’s Engagement in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-08-26)Fragility, conflict and violence (FCV) pose a major challenge for development and for reaching the Bank Group’s twin goals. Enabling appropriate private sector activities can be a means to break free of the fragility trap by supporting economic growth, promoting local employment and income earning opportunities, generating government revenues, and delivering goods and services. However, the private sector faces substantial constraints in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS). This report takes stock of available evidence regarding the effectiveness of IFC’s support in FCS. It aims to inform IFC’s strategy in FCS as IFC seeks to scale up its activities in FCS as part of its commitments under the Capital Increase Package, and to provide inputs for the Bank Group’s Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV) strategy currently being developed.Publication Delivering Social Protection in the Midst of Conflict and Crisis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10)Despite a situation of an active violent conflict, the Yemen Emergency CrisisResponse Project continues to deliver services and cash to the poor and vulnerablenationwide. This paper captures lessons learned from this innovative and pioneering project,which will be particularly relevant for shaping the World Bank's crisis response under IDA 18.Publication Gender Based Violence in Fragile, Conflict, and Violence Situations(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018)The importance of addressing gender-based violence (GBV) in fragile, conflict, and violence (FCV) situations is increasingly recognized by countries and international humanitarian and development agencies. This note highlights the best practices in designing, implementing and evaluating a project involving addressing GBV in conflict and fragile situations. The note also provides an overview of the World Bank’s current engagement on GBV in fragile settings and internal resources available to TTLs.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Taxes, Spending, and Equity: International Patterns and Lessons for Developing Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-17)Taxes and public spending underpin the basic administration of government and finance the human capital and infrastructure investments needed for economic growth. They can also have a significant and immediate impact on poverty and inequality. The question of how public finance can support longer-term growth objectives while promoting equity has become even more important in recent years, given the high fiscal deficits and debt levels most countries emerged with in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These included the increasing cost of debt and the need to restart environmentally sustainable growth while helping households address the learning losses and other social scars caused by the pandemic. This paper examines the global evidence on which households pay which taxes and who benefits from what spending, and critically, the net effect on different households across the income distribution. The aim is to identify the patterns and lessons that emerge for designing progressive fiscal policies. A global dataset of 96 countries is assembled, spanning all regions of the world and all national income levels, grounded in the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) approach to fiscal incidence.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Linking Export Activities to Productivity and Wage Rate Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-26)This paper examines the relationship between trade and job quality, using productivity and wage rate data for export and non-export activities in a sample of 60 countries across all income levels and 45 sectors spanning the whole economy over 1995–2019. First, the analysis finds that workers involved in export activities are more productive and better paid than those in non-export activities. While the productivity premium for export activities is confirmed in low- and middle-income countries, there is no wage rate premium. Second, this study finds a positive relationship between exports and labor productivity at the country-sector level, which can be attributed to productivity gains within export activities as well as spillovers to non-export activities. Countries’ specialization in global value chains and sectors also matters for the relationship between exports and job quality, with manufacturing, agriculture, and business services showing stronger associations. The link between exports and the wage rate is smaller than for productivity. Finally, productivity and wage rate growth decompositions suggest that growth within rather than between activities was the driving force. Within export activities, productivity and wage increases were dominated by within-sector growth, although labor movement toward more productive sectors also matters in low- and middle-income countries.Publication Did Program Support for the Poorest Areas Work?: Evidence from Rural Viet Nam(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-10)This paper investigates the impact of a large-scale poverty alleviation program targeted at the 62 poorest districts in Viet Nam. The analysis of multiple data sets spanning the past 20 years uses a regression discontinuity design with district fixed effects. The findings do not reveal significant program effects on household welfare (as measured by per capita income and poverty) or local economic development (as measured by nighttime light intensity and establishment of new firms). However, the findings show that the program facilitates a shift from farm to nonfarm employment and significantly increases the share of nonfarm income for rural households. A possible explanation for the positive effects on nonfarm employment is the improved access to credit that the program provides to participating households. The findings also show that the program increases household access to electricity, public transfers, educational subsidies for students residing in the program districts, and health care utilization, possibly through improving the availability of commune health care centers.Publication Benin Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-12-05)This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) proposes that Benin focuses on building a resilient economy, with investment and policy options primarily targeted at adapting to climate change risks. The dependence of Benin’s economic structure on agriculture and informal employment makes its development path highly vulnerable to climate change in the absence of proper adaptation. The government and the private sector need to be better prepared to deal with climate change – building adequate institutions and governance structures will be crucial. While all sectors will have to become more resilient, this is especially urgent for agriculture and land use, urban and network infrastructure, and human development (education, health). Mitigation efforts should focus on avoiding carbon lock-ins and reducing deforestation. Investing in renewable energy whilst expanding the population’s access to electricity should be a priority for Benin. A higher share of renewable energy can bring about co-benefits for other sectors (agriculture, water, transport, and forestry). To maintain its growth trajectory, Benin needs to pay special attention to its most vulnerable people, including women. To protect the poor and vulnerable the just transition should focus on reconciling development and climate goals while addressing inequality (income and gender related), and spatial exclusion.