Publication: Preparing for Demographic, Climate and Technological Change: Global Megatrends and Human Development in the MENA Region
Loading...
Published
2025-05-31
ISSN
Date
2025-09-15
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper explores how the three megatrends will affect the people of MENA and how, through emerging Human Development (HD) policies, the region can shape these trends and harness new opportunities while managing the risks. It first delves into the impacts of aging, climate change, and technological disruptions, including a discussion of the links between the megatrends and fragility. It next explores the main avenues for shaping the megatrends, the opportunities arising from the megatrends, and the main risks associated with the megatrends. It then summarizes what HD policies can do to support people in addressing the challenges of the three megatrends (annexes elaborate on some of the issues raised).
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2025. Preparing for Demographic, Climate and Technological Change: Global Megatrends and Human Development in the MENA Region. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43715 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Harnessing Human Capital for Growth in Croatia - Unleashing Potential for Economic Takeoff Amid Demographic and Technological Change(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-03)The report is structured as follows. Chapter 1 discusses the labor market constraints facing different segments of the working-age population, which can inform how to make work attractive.Chapter 2 explores the factors that are discouraging older people from re-entering the labor market and the need to optimize pension design to promote healthier and longer working lives. Chapter 3 explores ways to enhance human capital formation through the lifecycle, starting with early childcare and education, followed by upper secondary school, secondary VET, tertiary education, TVET and adult training. Chapter 4 identifies the enabling conditions needed to ensure that net migration can have a positive impact on the growth of economic participation and productivity. Chapter 5 focuses on ways to leverage public-private partnerships to providetraining and activation services and on how ALMPs could best be used to increase labor market participation. Finally, Chapter 6 explores the role that social protection can play in stimulating participation in the labor marketPublication Reforming for Effective Coverage: Resilient Human Development Institutions in the MENA Region(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-30)Public institutions are at the core of service delivery in the HD sectors of health, education, and social protection (SP), yet they underperform in providing effective coverage. In the MENA region, public institutions have a twofold role of service provision and stewardship to ensure quality, equity, and responsiveness to a changing environment. Effective service coverage — combining access, quality, and outcomes — is the ultimate metric of institutional performance for HD services. Despite successes over past decades with expanding the availability and accessibility of services, gaps in effective coverage continue to lead to suboptimal education, health, and SP outcomes in MENA.Publication Climate Change and Migration in the MENA Region(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-07)Climate change and climate-induced migration (Foresight, 2011) are major global concerns. This is true for the MENA region as well. Yet empirical data on how perceptions of climate change and weather shocks affect migration in the region are scarce. To what extent are perceived and actual weather shocks and changes in the environment driving temporary and permanent migration flows? Do remittances reach households living in climate poor areas, and if so, what is their impact on poverty and human development? These are some of the questions considered in a study by Wodon et al. (2014) based on various data sources including new household surveys for climate affected areas in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen (the five country sample in this note). In a short summary note as this one, it is important to be clear at the outset about what is measured and what is not. It is sometimes said that Climate is what we expect. Weather is what we get. Simply put, climate relates to the distribution of variables such as temperature and rainfall over a long period of time. This distribution is characterized by its moments, including the mean and the variance of key climatic variables. Climate change is then used to refer to the change in the distribution of rainfall and temperature. However, it is difficult to tell if the weather experienced at a point in time is due to climate change (the overall mean and variance of rainfall and temperature) or part of an existing distribution.Publication Social Safety Nets in Europe and Central Asia : Preparing for Crisis, Adapting to Demographic Change, and Promoting Employability(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04)Social safety nets in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region responded to protect people's incomes during the global recession, especially in countries where systems were developed before the crisis. As population's age and labor forces shrink, the elderly will increasingly rely on general revenues to supplement contributory pensions, competing with assistance for other vulnerable groups. Social safety nets that link to employment and other services can help people transition from reliance on social transfers to employability. Countries should not wait to confront these challenges. To further strengthen social safety nets, governments in ECA should consolidate and harmonize benefits, invest in systems improvements for greater efficiency, link social assistance and employment services, and actively communicate these reforms to their populations.Publication Investing in People: Revisiting Fiscal Options to Finance Human Development in the MENA Region(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-11)This report’s focus on fiscal matters complements ongoing work on megatrends involving labor markets, skills, demographics and climate (KP-1) and institutional matters (KP-2). The present KP-3 is not meant to be exhaustive in discussing the full range of financing and spending details in the region; instead, it provides an overview of key issues complemented by select deep dives – that is, the emphasis is not on being academically comprehensive, but on generating a policy-relevant, pragmatic and evolving conversation. Segments of the report may be updated in future editions as new statistics become available. A data annex complements the main body text and references are directly footnoted as hyperlinks.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Jobs in a Changing Climate: Insights from World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports Covering 93 Economies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05)The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) provide a crosscutting look at how countries’ development prospects, and the job opportunities they offer to their people, can be threatened by climate impacts and supported by climate policies. Climate change and policies affect jobs through impacts on productivity, energy and material efficiency, and physical, human, and natural capital. They can also transform employment opportunities, especially through complementary measures that help workers and firms adapt to and benefit from new technologies and production practices. Prepared by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), CCDRs integrate country perspectives, climate science and economic modeling, private sector information, and policy analysis to assess how countries can successfully grow and develop their economies and create jobs despite increasing climate risks and while achieving their climate objectives and commitments. Each CCDR starts from the country’s development priorities, opportunities, and challenges, and is developed in close consultation with governments, businesses, and civil society, ensuring the recommendations reflect national priorities. By combining evidence on adaptation, resilience, and emissions pathways, CCDRs highlight where climate action can reinforce development and job creation, and where targeted policies are needed to manage risks and smooth labor market transitions. Taken together, these elements can help create local jobs, ensure economic transitions are just and inclusive, and equip workers and firms to navigate the disruptions and opportunities of a changing climate and changing technologies.Publication Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03)This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.Publication Comoros Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-18)The Union of the Comoros (The Comoros) has significant vulnerability to climate change-related risks but has considerable opportunities to strengthen preparedness and resilience against these challenges. According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, the Comoros is the 29th-most vulnerable country to climate change and the 163rd most ready to adapt (out of 191). The Comoros archipelago is exposed to many natural hazards that adversely affect the country’s natural capital, people, and physical infrastructure. In 2014, the economic cost of climate-related disasters was estimated at 5.7 million dollars annually, equivalent to 9.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Between 2018 and 2023, as many as 11 tropical depressions or cyclones impacted the country, with Cyclone Kenneth causing the greatest damage, equivalent to 14 percent of GDP, resulting in total economic growth falling from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 1.9 percent in 2019. More than 345,000 people (40 percent of the population) were affected by the cyclone, with 185,000 people experiencing severe impacts and 12,000 people displaced. However, there is an opportunity for the country to grow more robust and shock-responsive, and to establish pre-positioned funding mechanisms to enhance future crisis response efforts. For the Comoros, adaptation and climate-resilient development are the key climate change focus areas, with the country projected to face 836 million dollars 2050 in additional costs due to climate-related impacts. Current plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change in the Comoros include efforts to improve water management, strengthen coastal protection, and develop climate-smart agriculture practices. Given the country’s reliance on its natural resource base for economic growth and mobility, protection of these resources from climate change will be essential for promoting resilient growth and development. In addition to growing the adaptive capacity of the country’s natural resource sectors, strategic economic diversification will be important to help minimize future climate impacts, and development activities will need to be undertaken in such a way as to attract low-carbon co-benefits. The Union of the Comoros is committed to addressing climate change through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and national priorities. The country’s NDC (which was revised in 2021 for a ten-year horizon) sets ambitious targets, with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 23 percent by 2030. The country also plans to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in its energy portfolio, reaching 33 MW by 2030. This will not only promote low-carbon development but also reduce the country’s dependency on imported oil and coal, which currently make up 95 percent of the energy mix. Additionally, the Comoros has declared its intention to increase CO2 removals by 47 percent by 2030, compared to BAU.Publication Gabon Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-01)Gabon has a unique opportunity to drive inclusive growth, reduce poverty, and build a resilient post-oil economy, with climate action accelerating progress toward these goals. The country’s main development challenge is achieving higher growth and poverty reduction, as stronger growth is needed regardless of projected climate shocks to create jobs, raise living standards, and enable a viable post-oil economy. While pursuing growth-promoting economic reforms, climate action that prioritizes people must remain central to its development pathway. However, climate change risks exacerbating poverty and regional inequalities in a country already facing long-term challenges in expanding economic opportunities and basic public services, especially in rural areas. Climate shifts compound these challenges, making stronger private sector-led growth driven by reforms essential for resilience, diversification, job creation, and poverty reduction, though targeted investments in adaptation will still be required to mitigate climate shocks. Using a whole-of-economy approach, the Gabon Country Climate Development Report (CCDR) estimates that climate change impacts could result in GDP losses of 3.5 to 5.3 percent per year through 2050 compared to a business-as-usual baseline trajectory.Publication Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23)Guinea-Bissau is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, with the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa (US3,874 dollars per capita), which could be leveraged for sustainable and resilient growth. However, Guinea-Bissau faces significant development hurdles, such as high poverty rates, political instability, and economic challenges, including an over-reliance on cashew nuts. Rural poverty has increased, and the nation's infrastructure, education, and health care systems are underdeveloped. Climate change poses a severe threat, potentially impacting agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. Without adaptation, it could lead to a significant cut in real GDP per capita (minus 7.3 percent by 2050) and increase in poverty (with up to over 200,000 additional poor by 2050, that is, 5 percent of the expected population, in the worst scenario). The country's low greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise, mainly due to agriculture and land-use changes, with deforestation being a major contributing factor. Although Guinea-Bissau is a low emitter, it has high mitigation ambitions, targeting a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The Nationally Determined Contribution outlines significant climate actions, with initiatives focused on forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and community development. However, the country's political instability, institutional weaknesses, and limited financial resources pose challenges to implementing these climate commitments, which depend heavily on external funding. The financial sector's underdevelopment and vulnerability to external shocks limit its ability to support green investments, though reforms could enhance resilience. Guinea-Bissau must consider its climate financing as development financing and vice-versa, engage the private sector, and integrate climate goals with national development plans to ensure a sustainable future. Concessional climate financing is vital due to the underdeveloped financial sector and the government’s limited borrowing capacity. Addressing Guinea-Bissau's vulnerability to climate change and its structural issues requires a cohesive approach that integrates development and climate strategies. This could involve improving governance, diversifying the economy, protecting natural capital, developing human capital, and investing in sustainable agriculture and infrastructure. The transition to a more sustainable and inclusive development pathway that supports economic growth is possible, but requires focusing on key strategic sectors, enhancing institutional capacity, and creating the conditions to mobilize finance. As a highly vulnerable country, there are myriad needs in the different sectors; however, to be more efficient and effective, Guinea-Bissau should prioritize actions in a few sectors, especially actions on biodiversity, agriculture, and social protection. Low carbon development, especially in energy and forestry sectors, could provide cost-efficient solutions and attract climate finance, including from the private sector, which will support the overall development agenda.