Publication:
Quantitative Analysis of Crisis : Crisis Identification and Causality

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (2.95 MB)
4,043 downloads
English Text (99 KB)
201 downloads
Date
2005-05
ISSN
Published
2005-05
Editor(s)
Abstract
Studies use different conceptual and operational definitions of crises. The different crisis identifications can lead to inconsistent conclusions and policy formulation even if the same analytical framework is applied. Also, most studies focus on only a few types of crises. This narrow focus on crises may not capture the multidimensionality of crises. Seven crisis types are analyzed, namely (1) liquidity type banking crises, (2) solvency type banking crises, (3) balance of payments crises, (4) currency crises, (5) debt crises, (6) growth rate crises, and (7) financial crises. Crisis data were collected from 15 emerging economies in 1980-2002 on a quarterly basis. The crisis identification exercise finds that multidimensionality in which different crisis types occur in short periods is one of the most important characteristics of recent crises. Further, the Granger causality tests in five Asian economies (Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand) find that currency crises tend to trigger other types of crises, and therefore exchange rate management is essential.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Ishihara, Yoichiro. 2005. Quantitative Analysis of Crisis : Crisis Identification and Causality. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 3598. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8947 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Geopolitics and the World Trading System
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23) Mattoo, Aaditya; Ruta, Michele; Staiger, Robert W.
    Until the beginning of this century, the GATT/WTO system worked. Economic research provided a compelling explanation. It showed that if governments maximize the well-being of their own countries broadly defined, GATT/WTO principles would facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation over their trade policy choices. Now heightened geopolitical rivalry seems to have undermined the WTO. A simple transposition of the previous rationalization suggests that geopolitics and trade cooperation are not compatible. The paper shows that this is only true if rivalry eclipses any consideration of own-country well-being. In all other circumstances, there are gains from trade cooperation even with geopolitics. Furthermore, the WTO’s relevance is in question only if it adheres too rigidly to its existing rules and norms. Through measured adaptation to the geopolitical imperative, the WTO can continue to thrive as a forum for multilateral trade cooperation in the age of geopolitics.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05) Foster, Elizabeth; Jolliffe, Dean Mitchell; Ibarra, Gabriel Lara; Lakner, Christoph; Tettah-Baah, Samuel
    Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.
  • Publication
    Global Socio-economic Resilience to Natural Disasters
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-22) Middelanis, Robin; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Hill, Ruth; Nguyen, Minh Cong; Hallegatte, Stephane
    Most disaster risk assessments use damages to physical assets as their central metric, often neglecting distributional impacts and the coping and recovery capacity of affected people. To address this shortcoming, the concepts of well-being losses and socio-economic resilience—the ability to experience asset losses without a decline in well-being—have been proposed. This paper uses microsimulations to produce a global estimate of well-being losses from, and socio-economic resilience to, natural disasters, covering 132 countries. On average, each $1 in disaster-related asset losses results in well-being losses equivalent to a $2 uniform national drop in consumption, with significant variation within and across countries. The poorest income quintile within each country incurs only 9% of national asset losses but accounts for 33% of well-being losses. Compared to high-income countries, low-income countries experience 67% greater well-being losses per dollar of asset losses and require 56% more time to recover. Socio-economic resilience is uncorrelated with exposure or vulnerability to natural hazards. However, a 10 percent increase in GDP per capita is associated with a 0.9 percentage point gain in resilience, but this benefit arises indirectly—such as through higher rate of formal employment, better financial inclusion, and broader social protection coverage—rather than from higher income itself. This paper assess ten policy options and finds that socio-economic and financial interventions (such as insurance and social protection) can effectively complement asset-focused measures (e.g., construction standards) and that interventions targeting low-income populations usually have higher returns in terms of avoided well-being losses per dollar invested.
  • Publication
    From Patriarchy to Policy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Bussolo, Maurizio; Rexer, Jonah M.; Hu, Lynn
    Legal institutions play an important role in shaping gender equality in economic domains, from inheritance to labor markets. But where do gender equal laws come from? Using cross-country data on social norms and legal equality, this paper investigates the socio-cultural roots of gender inequity in the legal system and its implications for female labor force participation. To identify the impact of social norms, the analysis uses an empirical strategy that exploits pre-modern differences in ancestral patriarchal culture as an instrument for present-day gender norms. The findings show that ancestral patriarchal culture is a strong predictor of contemporary norms, and conservative social norms are associated with more gender inequality in the de jure legal framework, the de facto implementation of laws, and the labor market. The paper presents evidence for a political selection mechanism linking norms to laws: countries with more conservative norms elect political leaders who are more hostile to gender equality, who then pass less progressive legislation. The results highlight the cultural roots and political drivers of legalized gender inequality.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Looking Beyond the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-03) Dailami, Mansoor
    Three years into the euro area sovereign debt crisis, investors continue to shun periphery government bonds, European banks are under severe funding pressures in both the dollar and euro private term markets, and the euro area is facing an anemic growth outlook. On the face of it, the scenario portends gloom. But upon closer examination of the inner workings of the European Union (EU) governance system, the ongoing adjustment in the banking sector, and the rewiring of the landscape of euro sovereign debt markets, the future scenario looks more balanced, particularly following the conclusion of the protracted negotiations on Greek bond exchanges under an EU-backed voluntary private sector involvement (PSI) scheme. As euro area leaders formulate significant structural reforms to deal with the continent's longstanding fiscal and governance shortcomings, this note argues that striking a balance between market disciplines and centralized rule-making is the best way forward.
  • Publication
    Thailand - Social and Structural Review : Beyond the Crisis - Structural Reform for Stable Growth
    (Washington, DC, 2000-01-25) World Bank
    Following the East Asian financial crisis, the Bank's involvement in Thailand intensified, enabling a multifaceted stabilization, and structural reform dialogue, which deepened the economic, financial, and sector knowledge of the country. The study benefits from this analytical work, and provides an overview on the ongoing policy dialogue, regarding short- and medium-term reform, through a number of instruments. To promote longer-term growth, the country embarked on a twin strategy of macroeconomic stabilization, and structural reform. Although its flexible labor market, and support mechanisms diminished the crisis' impact on unemployment, and poverty, compared to other countries in the region, this ability to moderate the impact of the economic crisis, could adversely impact a prolonged crisis. The study examines steps to strengthen public sector social programs, and institutional capacity, envisaging coherent poverty support programs in a timely manner, while speeding fiscal stimulus effects, and, monitoring poverty through reliable information, to ensure cost-effectiveness. The financial sector reform is reviewed, focusing on restructuring financial institutions, while upgrading prudential regulations. Practices to improve private sector development are reviewed, i.e., promote corporate restructuring, and competition, and, improve factors of production, while promising a stable growth.
  • Publication
    South East Europe Regular Economic Report, January 2015 : Coping with Floods, Strengthening Growth
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-01) World Bank Group
    Coping with Floods, Strengthening Growth, from the South East Europe Regular Economic Report explains that South East Europe s (SEE6) s economy is estimated to have stagnated in 2014 on the back of flood-induced contraction in Serbia and a sharp slowdown in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. The regional economy grew 0.2 percent in 2014, insufficient to improve living standards or to make a dent in the region s high unemployment rate. External demand for SEE6 exports was a key positive contributor to economic growth in 2014 as the region s exports gained market share, despite the weak Eurozone performance and disappointing global recovery. Domestic demand remained subdued because of delayed or reduced public and private investments and weak consumption. Devastating floods in large parts of the region further weighed on the SEE6 economic activity in 2014. The weak regional economic performance masks notable differences among the SEE6 countries. In 2014, the Serbian economy is estimated to have contracted by 2 percent for a third time since the global crisis and Bosnia and Herzegovina is stagnating. Economic growth rates in Kosovo and Montenegro are estimated to have moderated in 2014. Only Albania and FYR Macedonia showed signs of a more sustained recovery on the back of increasing exports, particularly in the second half of the year. The floods were the main culprit behind the weak domestic demand and the overall sluggish economic performance in SEE6. Robust exports only partially offset the SEE6 s weak domestic demand, leaving external imbalances in vulnerability. The average fiscal deficit in SEE6 is estimated to have increased by 0.4 percent of GDP to 4.2 percent in 2014 due to faster growth in expenditures than revenues. The SEE6 region as a whole is projected to grow 1.3 percent in 2015, supported by a slowly recovering external demand, especially in Europe, and stabilization of international energy prices at around current levels.
  • Publication
    Financial Sector Assessment : Croatia
    (Washington, DC, 2002-12) World Bank
    This Financial Sector Assessment (FSA) summarizes the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) report for Croatia. The FSAP mission visited Zagreb during the period September 3-14,200l and discussed its preliminary findings with the representatives of the Croatia National Bank (CNB) and Ministry of Finance (MoF) on September 14, 2001. The mission also discussed the assessments of observance of codes and standards with relevant government offices and agencies. An assessment was also made of the legal and institutional arrangements for Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AMLKFT). The final FSAP report was submitted in November 2002.
  • Publication
    Challenges to Enterprise Performance in the Face of the Financial Crisis : Eastern Europe and Central Asia
    (World Bank, 2011-06-10) World Bank
    This report takes stock of enterprise sector performance in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region and its key drivers: access to finance, infrastructure, and labor. It is the second of two complementary reports that examine selected trends emerging from the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) data that are of immediate policy relevance to ECA countries. Both reports draw primarily on information from data collected prior to the crisis. This report also uses data on employment and access to finance collected during the crisis in a subset of ECA countries. The global financial crisis has had enormous consequences for firms' access to finance, the availability of qualified workers, and the ability of governments to provide (and of private sector to obtain) reliable infrastructure services. The extent and impact of these constraints is yet to be determined but their presence at a time of economic growth suggests they may re-emerge during the post-crisis economic recovery. The BEEPS captures information on a number of aspects of the business environment. This report highlights the elements of firm finance, labor regulations and skills, and infrastructure that are covered by the BEEPS questionnaire. Where possible, the data are supplemented with data from other sources. The report covers a lot of ground, and several broad findings from the analyses stand out.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    World Development Report 2011
    (World Bank, 2011) World Bank
    The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.
  • Publication
    The Journey Ahead
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31) Bossavie, Laurent; Garrote Sánchez, Daniel; Makovec, Mattia
    The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 1987
    (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987) World Bank
    This report, consisting of two parts, is the tenth in the annual series assessing development issues. Part I reviews recent trends in the world economy and their implications for the future prospects of developing countries. It stresses that better economic performance is possible in both industrial and developing countries, provided the commitment to economic policy reforms is maintained and reinforced. In regard to the external debt issues, the report argues for strengthened cooperation among industrial countries in the sphere of macroeconomic policy to promote smooth adjustment to the imbalances caused by external payments (in developing countries). Part II reviews and evaluates the varied experience with government policies in support of industrialization. Emphasis is placed on policies which affect both the efficiency and sustainability of industrial transformation, especially in the sphere of foreign trade. The report finds that developing countries which followed policies that promoted the integration of their industrial sector into the international economy through trade have fared better than those which insulated themselves from international competition.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 1994
    (New York: Oxford University Press, 1994) World Bank
    World Development Report 1994, the seventeenth in this annual series, examines the link between infrastructure and development and explores ways in which developing countries can improve both the provision and the quality of infrastructure services. In recent decades, developing countries have made substantial investments in infrastructure, achieving dramatic gains for households and producers by expanding their access to services such as safe water, sanitation, electric power, telecommunications, and transport. Even more infrastructure investment and expansion are needed in order to extend the reach of services - especially to people living in rural areas and to the poor. But as this report shows, the quantity of investment cannot be the exclusive focus of policy. Improving the quality of infrastructure service also is vital. Both quantity and quality improvements are essential to modernize and diversify production, help countries compete internationally, and accommodate rapid urbanization. The report identifies the basic cause of poor past performance as inadequate institutional incentives for improving the provision of infrastructure. To promote more efficient and responsive service delivery, incentives need to be changed through commercial management, competition, and user involvement. Several trends are helping to improve the performance of infrastructure. First, innovation in technology and in the regulatory management of markets makes more diversity possible in the supply of services. Second, an evaluation of the role of government is leading to a shift from direct government provision of services to increasing private sector provision and recent experience in many countries with public-private partnerships is highlighting new ways to increase efficiency and expand services. Third, increased concern about social and environmental sustainability has heightened public interest in infrastructure design and performance. This report includes the World Development Indicators, which offer selected social and economic statistics for 132 countries.