Publication: Modeling Transition Paths for the Energy and Transport Sectors: A Literature Review
Loading...
Published
2023-03
ISSN
Date
2023-03-15
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Meeting the dual challenge of providing reliable and affordable energy and transport to a growing population while reducing environmental impacts, including mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, requires a deep understanding of both the unit- and system-level responses. These responses arise from the ongoing energy and transport system evolution, such as the transition toward lower carbon fuels and the expanded deployment of new low-carbon generation technologies. This literature review takes stock of the advantages and disadvantages of alternative approaches, by offering a taxonomy of the current modeling approach, focusing inter alia on the characteristics of the models. Current analyses often employ integrated assessment models to quantify the effects (for example, economywide greenhouse gas emissions) of various policies and decision processes on representative unit operations. The accuracy of the modeling approaches used to estimate these costs depends on several factors: for example, modeling approaches (ranging from partial equilibrium energy-land models to computable general equilibrium models of the global economy, from myopic to perfect foresight models, and from models with or without endogenous technological change), covered area, time horizon, determination of baseline scenarios, detailed sectoral representation, emissions sources, inclusion of efficiency and renewable energy options, and so forth. Some of the biggest challenges for improving the design and use of integrated assessment models include accounting for the trade-off between efficiency and equity, capturing interactions between impact sectors and feedbacks to the climate system, and dealing with uncertainty and risk. This review focuses on the treatment of the energy and transport sectors.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Vagliasindi, Maria. 2023. Modeling Transition Paths for the Energy and Transport Sectors: A Literature Review. Policy Research Working Papers; 10357. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39538 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Design and Sustainability of Renewable Energy Incentives : An Economic Analysis(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2015)Rapid urbanization and economic growth, new demographic trends, and climate change are key challenges that developing countries must face as they strive to meet growing energy demand. The main objectives of this study are to offer: (a) a global taxonomy of the economic and financial incentives provided by renewable support schemes and (b) an economic modeling of the sustainability and affordability of such support schemes. In an attempt to contribute to the lively debate, this study provides a global taxonomy of the economic and financial incentives provided by renewable energy (RE) support schemes. It summarizes economic models of the sustainability and affordability of such support schemes, alongside operational advice on how the regulatory design may need to be modified to minimize the impact on the budget and be affordable to the poor, as well as how to identify and fill the financing gap. This analytical framework: (a) differentiates and illustrates tradeoffs among local, regional, and national impacts, in the short and long run; (b) captures distributional impacts (since subsidies to cover the incremental costs of RE may have very different beneficiaries); and (c) captures externalities and compares (where possible) alternative projects based on equivalent output and cost (comparing, for example, RE and energy efficiency projects against those using fossil fuels). The report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two presents the analytical framework that underpins the case studies, and provides the background for the principal research hypothesis of this report, which is better attention to the principles of economic analysis and market efficiency leads to more sustainable and effective policies. Chapter s three to ten present country case studies for Vietnam, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, South Africa, Tanzania, Egypt, Brazil, and Turkey. The conclusions of the study are presented in chapter eleven.Publication Carbon Price Efficiency : Lock-in and Path Dependence in Urban Forms and Transport Infrastructure(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-06)This paper investigates the effect of carbon or gasoline taxes on commuting-related CO2 emissions in an urban context. To assess the impact of public transport on the efficiency of the tax, the paper investigates two exogenous scenarios using a dynamic urban model (NEDUM-2D) calibrated for the urban area of Paris: (i) a scenario with the current dense public transport infrastructure, and (ii) a scenario without. It is shown that the price elasticity of CO2 emissions is twice as high in the short run if public transport options exist. Reducing commuting-related emissions thus requires lower (and more acceptable) tax levels in the presence of dense public transportation. If the goal of a carbon or gasoline tax is to change behaviors and reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions (not to raise revenues), then there is an incentive to increase the price elasticity through complementary policies such as public transport development. The emission elasticity also depends on the baseline scenario and is larger when population growth and income growth are high. In the longer run, elasticities are higher and similar in the scenarios with and without public transport, because of larger urban reconfiguration in the latter scenario. These results are policy relevant, especially for fast-growing cities in developing countries. Even for cities where emission reductions are not a priority today, there is an option value attached to a dense public transport network, since it makes it possible to reduce emissions at a lower cost in the future.Publication Turning the Right Corner : Ensuring Development through a Low-Carbon Transport Sector(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-05-29)This report 'Turning the right corner - ensuring development through a low carbon transport sector' emphasizes that developing countries need to transition to a low carbon transport sector now to avoid locking themselves into an unsustainable and costly future. Furthermore, it argues that this transition can be affordable if countries combine policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with broader sector reforms aimed at reducing local air pollution, road safety risks, and congestion. This report looks at relationships between mobility, low carbon transport and development, drawing attention to the inertia in transport infrastructure. It complements the analysis by reviewing how climate change is likely to affect operations and infrastructure, cost-effective measures for minimizing negative effects, and policies and decision frameworks. It further highlights current and projected research findings and examples from developing countries. And it concludes that new technology is not enough, and that urgent action is needed before economies become locked into high-carbon growth. It discusses how to reconcile development with the need to curb emissions, looking at three sets of instruments and their limitations: new technologies and alternative fuels, supply-side measures, and demand-side policies. This report also looks at both available funding, such as carbon financing and international assistance, and at ways to generate new resources, considering that accounting for negative externalities dramatically alters the economics of transport investment.Publication Energy Intensive Sectors of the Indian Economy : Path to Low Carbon Development(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-08)Energy Intensive Sectors of the Indian Economy: Path to Low Carbon Development is the product of a collaborative effort between the World Bank and the Government of India, under the overall leadership of the Planning Commission and the Ministry of Power, and with the financial assistance of the Department for International Development (DFID) and the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). The study was requested by the Government of India to develop the analytical capacity for identifying low carbon growth opportunities up to the end of the 15th Five Year Plan (March 2032) in major sectors of the economy; and to facilitate informed decision making by improving the knowledge base and raising national and international awareness of India efforts to address global climate change. The study uses an innovative engineering based, bottom up model to examine CO2 emissions from energy use during 2007 to 2031. It focuses on sectors and areas that are expected to contribute significantly to India's future growth in CO2 emissions. The report received significant support from ministries and agencies of the Government of India, including the planning commission, the ministry of environment and forests, and the ministry of power, the central electricity authority, and the bureau of energy efficiency.Publication Romania : Transport Sector Rapid Assessment(Washington, DC, 2014-01)The Europe 2020 strategy and the legislative package from the European commission provide European Union (EU) member states a framework and means for moving towards a greener and more competitive low carbon economy that makes efficient use of resources and is resilient to climate risk. The integration of both mitigation and adaptation actions into Romania's national policies, programs, and strategies will be a critical step in shifting its development path towards a climate resilient, low carbon, and green economy. In this context, the Government of Romania has requested the World Bank to provide advisory services on climate change, including operationalizing its national climate change strategy and action plan, identifying and integrating climate-related actions in new operational programs, building a solid analytical base for impact assessment and climate-related decision making, and enhancing climate-friendly practices and monitoring system. This report is a deliverable under component B of the advisory services; support the preparation of the climate change-related actions under the 2014-2020 operational programs. This report presents the results of the rapid assessment process for the transport sector. This includes both general transports (which previously fed into the sector operational program for transport (SOP-T) and urban transport (which previously fed into the regional operational program (ROP).
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.