Publication:
Natural Disaster Hotspots: Case Studies

Abstract
These case studies complement the earlier groundbreaking work of Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis published in April 2005. Three case studies address specific hazards: landslides, storm surges and drought. An additional, three case studies address regional multi-hazard situations in Sri Lanka, the Tana River basin in Kenya, and the city of Caracas, Venezuela.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Arnold, Margaret; Chen, Robert S.; Deichmann, Uwe; Dilley, Maxx; Lerner-Lam, Arthur L.; Pullen, Randolph E.; Trohanis, Zoe, editors. 2006. Natural Disaster Hotspots: Case Studies. Disaster Risk Management No. 6. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7091 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Managing Vulnerability and Boosting Productivity in Agriculture through Weather Risk Mapping
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-02) Arce, Carlos; Uribe, Edgar
    Productivity in the agricultural sector is inherently dependent on weather, such as variations in rainfall and temperature. As a result, weather risk events can cause losses in yield and production that translate into economic losses for producers, as well as other sector stakeholders that depend on income from agricultural trade, transport, processing, or export. This document is a guide for development practitioners and strategically presents a variety of mapping techniques for agricultural risk management and illustrates the application of these techniques for informing public and private sector development strategies. The introduction places weather risk mapping within the broader context of agricultural risk, explaining how mapping can enable risk identification, assessment and management activities, and each chapter elaborates on one or more of the technical components. A basic definition of agro-meteorology is provided, along with a discussion of different mapping techniques. The guide presents the available remote (satellite) databases of agro-meteorological variables that can be used for the purpose of weather risk mapping, assessing the advantages and drawbacks of each database and their suitability for different purposes. The document reviews current risk mapping analyses based on historical weather observations, which are typically used for risk identification and assessment, including climatologies, hazard and risk maps, climate regionalizations and agro-ecological zones (AEZ). The document also reviews forward-looking mapping techniques, known as diagnostic and forecasting analyses, specific examples of which are drawn from the United States, the European Union, and Australia. Finally, the guide provides instruction on how and why to conduct agro-ecological zoning, a technique that can be used to assess land-use types, land resources, land suitability, and climatic and agro-climatic regionalizations, as well as to inform land use recommendations. The concluding chapter demonstrates a step-by-step application of agro-ecological zoning in a case study of Mozambique.
  • Publication
    Five Feet High and Rising : Cities and Flooding in the 21st Century
    (2011-05-01) Lamond, Jessica; Jha, Abhas; Bloch, Robin; Bhattacharya, Namrata; Lopez, Ana; Papachristodoulou, Nikolaos; Bird, Alan; Proverbs, David; Davies, John; Barker, Robert
    Urban flooding is an increasingly important issue. Disaster statistics appear to show flood events are becoming more frequent, with medium-scale events increasing fastest. The impact of flooding is driven by a combination of natural and human-induced factors. As recent flood events in Pakistan, Brazil, Sri Lanka and Australia show, floods can occur in widespread locations and can sometimes overwhelm even the best prepared countries and cities. There are known and tested measures for urban flood risk management, typically classified as structural or engineered measures, and non-structural, management techniques. A combination of measures to form an integrated management approach is most likely to be successful in reducing flood risk. In the short term and for developing countries in particular, the factors affecting exposure and vulnerability are increasing at the fastest rate as urbanization puts more people and more assets at risk. In the longer term, however, climate scenarios are likely to be one of the most important drivers of future changes in flood risk. Due to the large uncertainties in projections of climate change, adaptation to the changing risk needs to be flexible to a wide range of future scenarios and to be able to cope with potentially large changes in sea level, rainfall intensity and snowmelt. Climate uncertainty and budgetary, institutional and practical constraints are likely to lead to a combining of structural and non-structural measures for urban flood risk management, and arguably, to a move away from what is sometimes an over-reliance on hard-engineered defenses and toward more adaptable and incremental non-structural solutions.
  • Publication
    Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Samoa
    (Washington, DC, 2010) World Bank
    Over the last two decades Samoa has suffered major damage from two cyclones in 1990-91, minor damage from a third cyclone in 2004, and an earthquake tsunami in 2009. Changes in the scale and impact of these types of natural disasters are likely to be important consequences of climate change for the country because the increases in sea level and in average sea surface temperatures will increase theintensity and damage from major storms. Other potential impacts are linked to changes in the weather patterns associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The primary concern focuses on the impact on agriculture, especially in periods of lower precipitation following strong El Niño episodes.This study examines the consequences of an increase in average temperatures of up to 1°C by 2050 and up to 2.75°C by 2100 for the frequency and intensity of major cyclones that hit the islands. Estimates of the economic damage caused by storms in the past have been used to calibrate a damage function that yields an estimated increase in the expected value of economic damage as the peak wind speeds for storms with return periods of 10, 50, or 100 years rise over time. In this framework the key element of adaptation is to ensure that buildings and other assets are designed to standards that enable them to cope with the greater wind stresses and more intense precipitation associated with worse storms.
  • Publication
    Climate Impacts on Energy Systems : Key Issues for Energy Sector Adaptation
    (World Bank, 2011-01-28) Ebinger, Jane; Vergara, Walter
    This report presents an overview of how the energy sector might be impacted by climate change and what options exist for its management. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation, which has been a key focus of the energy sector and is not discussed in this report. This report draws on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible. It starts with a discussion about observed and projected climate change (out to 2100), exploring trends, extremes, and 'hotspots'- geographic regions that will see significant changes or variability for relevant parameters (for example, temperature, runoff , and sea level rise). It then discusses what is known about the impacts of these changes on energy resources, infrastructure, and transportation systems as well as demand. It discusses what technologies or services are more vulnerable and identifies gaps in information or knowledge. The report concludes with a number of proposed near-term actions to foster dialogue, to further inform sector practitioners, to disaggregate climate impacts to regional and local settings, and to improve the knowledge base. Underpinning all actions is recognition of the need for a broad and participatory approach that extends beyond traditional planning horizons and boundaries.
  • Publication
    A Cost Effective Solution to Reduce Disaster Losses in Developing Countries : Hydro-Meteorological Services, Early Warning, and Evacuation
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-05) Hallegatte, Stéphane
    In Europe, it can be estimated that hydro-meteorological information and early warning systems save several hundreds of lives per year, avoid between 460 million and 2.7 billion Euros of disaster asset losses per year, and produce between 3.4 and 34 billion of additional benefits per year through the optimization of economic production in weather-sensitive sectors (agriculture, energy, etc.). The potential for similar benefits in the developing world is not only proportional to population, but also to increased hazard risk due to climate and geography, as well as increased exposure to weather due to the state of infrastructure. This analysis estimates that the potential benefits from upgrading to developed-country standards the hydro-meteorological information production and early warning capacity in all developing countries include: (i) between 300 million and 2 billion USD per year of avoided asset losses due to natural disasters; (ii) an average of 23,000 saved lives per year, which is valued between 700 million and 3.5 billion USD per year using the Copenhagen Consensus guidelines; and (iii) between 3 and 30 billion USD per year of additional economic benefits. The total benefits would reach between 4 and 36 billion USD per year. Because some of the most expensive components of early warning systems have already been built (e.g., earth observation satellites, global weather forecasts), these investments are relatively modest, estimated here around 1 billion US per year, reaching benefit-cost ratios between 4 and 36.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Direct and Indirect Impacts of Transport Mobility on Access to Jobs: Evidence from South Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-12) Iimi, Atsushi
    Access to jobs is essential for economic growth. In Africa, unemployment rates are notably high. This paper reexamines the relationship between transport mobility and labor market outcomes, with a particular focus on the direct and indirect effects of transport connectivity. As predicted by theory, wages are influenced by the level of commuting deterrence. Generally, higher earnings are associated with longer commute times and/or higher commuting costs. Local accessibility is also important, especially for individuals with time constraints. Both direct and indirect impacts are found to be significant in South Africa, where job accessibility has been challenging since the end of apartheid. For the direct impact, the wage elasticity associated with commuting costs is significant. Returns on commute are particularly high for women. Local accessibility to socioeconomic facilities, such as shops and health services, is also found to have a significant impact, consistent with the concept of mobility of care. To enhance employment, therefore, it is crucial to connect people not only to job locations but also to various socioeconomic points of interest, such as markets and hospitals, in an integrated manner. This integration will enable individuals to spend more time working and commuting longer distances.
  • Publication
    Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03) World Bank Group
    This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-04) Zhang, Fan; Borja-Vega, Christian; Chandanpurkar, Hrishikesh Arvind; Famiglietti, James; Hogeboom, Rick; Namara, Regassa; Rasul, Zarif; Luengas-Sierra, Pavel; Rao, Deyu
    Grounded in new evidence from satellite data, “Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future” presents the first global assessment of freshwater reserves over the past two decades. The findings expose an alarming trend of “continental drying,” a persistent long-term decline in freshwater availability across vast landmasses. Not only are droughts and deluges becoming more unpredictable, but the total amount of freshwater available for use has also significantly declined. Continental drying, driven by global warming, worsening droughts, and unsustainable water and land use, is a silent but accelerating crisis—largely unknown to the public—that reshapes the global water narrative. Continental drying raises profound risks. This report reveals new empirical evidence showing how freshwater depletion leads to major job losses, reduced incomes, wildfires, and biodiversity threats. In the long term, the combined effects of drying and warming could push societies toward a tipping point where damage accelerates rapidly and adaptation becomes increasingly difficult. Against the backdrop of continental drying, global water consumption rose by 25 percent between 2000 and 2019, with about a third of this increase occurring in regions already experiencing drying. Compounding the pressure, a substantial share of water use in drying regions remains inefficient. Continental Drying identifies hot spots where rising demand and declining supply converge and explores where and how water savings can be realized. This report recommends a three-pronged approach to address the crisis: managing demand, augmenting water supply, and improving water allocation. Five cross-cutting levers—strengthening institutions, reforming water tariffs and repurposing subsidies, adopting water accounting, leveraging data and technological innovations, and valuing water in trade—are essential for effective implementation and to attract private investment to finance the approach. Beyond water, addressing trade barriers, investing in education and skills development, and improving access to markets and financial services are critical for strengthening job and livelihood resilience amid a continental drying crisis.
  • Publication
    Taxes, Spending, and Equity: International Patterns and Lessons for Developing Countries
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-17) Wai-Poi, Matthew; Sosa, Mariano; Bachas, Pierre
    Taxes and public spending underpin the basic administration of government and finance the human capital and infrastructure investments needed for economic growth. They can also have a significant and immediate impact on poverty and inequality. The question of how public finance can support longer-term growth objectives while promoting equity has become even more important in recent years, given the high fiscal deficits and debt levels most countries emerged with in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These included the increasing cost of debt and the need to restart environmentally sustainable growth while helping households address the learning losses and other social scars caused by the pandemic. This paper examines the global evidence on which households pay which taxes and who benefits from what spending, and critically, the net effect on different households across the income distribution. The aim is to identify the patterns and lessons that emerge for designing progressive fiscal policies. A global dataset of 96 countries is assembled, spanning all regions of the world and all national income levels, grounded in the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) approach to fiscal incidence.