Publication: The Impact of Commodity Price Changes on Rural Households : The Case of Coffee in Uganda
Loading...
Published
2006-12
ISSN
Date
2012-06-26
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Policies and external shocks affecting agriculture, the main source of income for rural households, can be expected to have a significant impact on poverty. The authors study the case of Uganda. Throughout the 1990s, more than 90 percent of its poor lived in rural areas and, during the same period, large international price fluctuations as well as an extensive domestic deregulation affected the coffee sector, its main source of export revenues. Using data from three household surveys covering the 1990s, the authors confirm a strong correlation between changes in coffee prices (in a liberalized market) and poverty reduction. This is highlighted by comparing the performance of different households grouped according to their dependence on coffee farming. Regression analysis (based on pooled data from the three surveys) of consumption expenditure on coffee-related variables, other controls, and time-fixed effects corroborates that the mentioned correlation is not spurious. The authors also find that while both poor and rich farmers enter the coffee sector, the price boom benefits the poorer households relatively more, whereas the liberalization seems to create more opportunities for richer farmers. Finally, notwithstanding the importance of the coffee price boom, the agricultural policy framework and the thorough structural reforms in which the coffee market liberalization was embedded have certainly played a role in triggering overall agricultural growth. These factors appear to matter especially in the second half of the 1990s when prices went down but poverty reduction continued.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Godart, Olivier; Bussolo, Maurizio; Lay, Jann; Thiele, Rainer. 2006. The Impact of Commodity Price Changes on Rural Households : The Case of Coffee in Uganda. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4088. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9278 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08)Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.Publication The Evolution of Local Participatory Democracy in Nepal(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05)Nepal is, according to its constitution, among the world’s most decentralized countries, with a long and complex tradition of local-level public participation. This paper traces the evolution of Nepal’s modern participatory institutions, examining the extent to which they are “induced” by external interventions versus being “organically” rooted in indigenous practices. The paper identifies three broad phases: an initial focus on participation in project implementation; a subsequent phase that expanded citizen engagement; and a third phase of citizen empowerment, culminating in the 2015 federal constitution, which granted unprecedented local autonomy. The analysis yields five key findings. First, over the past 50 years, successive reforms have progressively expanded opportunities for citizens to influence local decision-making. Second, these reforms have integrated traditional participatory mechanisms into formal institutions of local government. Third, although central-level initiatives exist, most participatory platforms continue to operate at the local level. Fourth, the federal constitution has created a new landscape of local democracy, embedding autonomy and accountability. Fifth, although they are still valued in many ethnic and territorial communities, traditional participatory practices are gradually disappearing. The paper concludes by offering policy recommendations to help donor agencies and governments strengthen Nepal’s democratic trajectory. It argues that effective interventions should build on Nepal’s deep participatory traditions while recognizing the constitutional reality of far-reaching local autonomy.Publication Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.Publication Closing the Gender Gap in Entrepreneurship: Overcoming Challenges in Law and Practice for Female Entrepreneurs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)Despite significant strides toward gender equality, women around the world continue to encounter systemic obstacles that hinder their entrepreneurial success. This paper systematically reviews the literature on the barriers female entrepreneurs face and the solutions proposed to overcome these challenges. It discusses institutional factors, financial factors, human capital factors, and social and cultural factors. The literature overview is complemented by a series of stylized facts that illustrate how overcoming some of these existing barriers is correlated with improved women’s entrepreneurship and female labor force participation, drawing on the World Bank’s Women, Business and the Law database as well as the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys. The findings underscore the need for creating an enabling environment where women can thrive as entrepreneurs.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Weathering the Storm : The Impact of the East Asian Crisis on Farm Households in Indonesia and Thailand(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2002-01)This article assesses the impact of the East Asian financial crisis on farm households in two of the region's most affected countries, Indonesia and Thailand, using detailed household level survey data collected before and after the crisis began. Although the natures of the shocks in the two countries were similar, the impact on farmers' income (particularly on distribution) was quite different. In Thailand, poor farmers bore the brunt of the crisis, in part because of their greater reliance on the urban economy, than did poor farmers in Indonesia. Urban-rural links are much weaker in Indonesia. Farmers in both countries, particularly those specializing in export crops, benefited from the currency devaluation. Although there is some evidence that the productivity of the smallest landholders declined over the period in question, it is difficult to attribute this directly to the financial crisis. At least in Thailand, a rural credit crunch does not seem to have materialized.Publication Sri Lanka - Agricultural Commercialization : Improving Farmers’ Incomes in the Poorest Regions(World Bank, 2009-05-12)The issue of regional differences in development has moved to the center of the development debate in Sri Lanka, partly after the release of regional poverty data. For the past many years, there have been significant and increasing differences between the Western province and the rest of the country in terms of per capita income levels, growth rates of per capita income, poverty rates, and the structure of provincial economies. The structure of the report is as follows: chapter two looks at the poverty/growth/agriculture nexus in the poorest regions of Sri Lanka. It presents data on poverty and growth in the poorest provinces, especially Uva and Sabaragamuwa, and provides an analysis of factors associated with the rural poor. Chapter three provides an overview and brief discussion of the Government's agricultural policies and programs. Chapter four identifies constraints that restrict farmers' incomes in the four poorest provinces. It presents results from extensive stakeholder consultations carried out in these provinces. These results are complemented with findings from the 2005 rural investment climate assessment to identify some of the general constraints in the agriculture sector in Sri Lanka. Chapter five presents the findings of an agricultural resource audit of small-scale farmers in the poorest regions that analyzed production, poverty and market data. The chapter identifies income opportunities, in particular for a few agricultural products with high income potential for poor farmers, whose production could take off with appropriate interventions. This chapter also provides a value chain analysis of these products and identifies product-specific constraints and gaps in the current policy portfolio that could potentially limit the Government's capacity to support the whole range of needed interventions. Drawing on the findings in previous chapters, chapter six presents' recommendations. One set of recommendations is specific to the three products with high income potential and focuses on effective interventions for their production. Another set consists of cross-cutting recommendations that would further improve performance in the targeted areas but also benefit agricultural production more broadly. Chapter seven sums up and concludes.Publication Priorities for Sustainable Growth : A Strategy for Agriculture Sector Development in Tajikistan(Washington, DC, 2012-01)Agriculture sector growth has made a powerful contribution to post-war economic recovery in Tajikistan, accounting for approximately one third of overall economic growth from 1998 to 2004. Sector output increased by 65 percent in real terms during this period, and has now returned to the level extant at independence in 1990. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has also increased, by 3 percent per year. Despite this progress, there is legitimate concern that this growth is unsustainable. Evidence suggests that it has been driven largely by the external factors noted above, rather than substantive changes to resources, incentives and the behavior of factor and commodity markets. First, an extensive program of policy reform, particularly in the area of land ownership, has yet to make a substantial impact on the incentive structure for agricultural workers cultivating the majority of arable land. Second, sustainable growth requires positive net investment. Third, commodity markets remain weak, with a limited capacity to translate increased demand into improved production incentives. And fourth, growth in crop production has been largely driven by low value food and cereal crops. A sustainable increase in access to rural finance will require much greater emphasis on the development of alternative sources of finance for all of agriculture, in addition to resolution of the cotton debt crisis. The capacity for agricultural loan appraisal and management also needs to be strengthened, new collateral instruments introduced and new loan products developed, which are suited to agriculture in general and small-scale farmers in particular.Publication Tanzania Public Expenditure Review : National Agricultural Input Voucher Scheme(Washington, DC, 2014-02)Tanzania is largely an agriculture-based economy. This sector accounts for over three-quarters of national employment, and approximately 25 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The national agricultural input voucher scheme (NAIVS) is a market smart input subsidy program designed in response to the sharp rise in global grain and fertilizer prices in 2007 and 2008. The main aim of the program is to raise maize and rice production, and thus preserve Tanzania's household and national food security. During the period from 2008 to 2013, approximately United States (U.S.) 300 million dollars has been invested in providing more than 2.5 million smallholder farmers with a 50 percent subsidy on a one acre package of maize or rice seed, and chemical fertilizer. The input subsidy program helped Tanzanian smallholders harvest more than 2.5 million tons of additional maize and rice grain. The NAIVS program also faced multiple logistical challenges. These challenges are being considered in the government's new big results now initiative. This report summarizes the results of an overview of the program, and the results of two major impact surveys independently conducted in late 2010 and late 2012. Chapter one places the NAIVS in context, reviewing the status of the agricultural economy and the importance of grain production in the country. Chapter two provides an overview of the NAIVS program, including budget, expenditure, and implementation rules. Chapter three briefly summarizes the impact survey results and highlights the financial and economic returns of the program. Chapter four discusses the challenges faced during implementation of the NAIVs, and chapter five reviews the implications for further investment in this sort of input subsidy.Publication Cote d'Ivoire - The Growth Agenda : Building on Natural Resources and Exports(Washington, DC, 2012-03-20)Cote d'Ivoire was an economic success story in the first twenty years of independence, but a sharp reversal began in 1980 and by 1993 per capita incomes was back to the level of 1960. Devaluation of the African Financial Community (CFA) franc triggered an economic rebound, but this was soon undermined by the political crisis beginning in 1999. Just as the economy was starting to move forward, a new crisis struck in early 2011, with considerable loss of life and assets. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will be significantly negative in 2011, after 30 years of almost uninterrupted decline in per capita incomes and a rise in poverty from 10 percent in 1985 to 43 percent in 2008. The country is in urgent need of rapid and inclusive growth to reduce poverty, create jobs, provide hope for a better future, and help heal the wounds in the social fabric. The report devotes some attention to two key backbone services transport and telecommunications. The transport sector facilitates exports of goods, and access to essential imports, but also represents a service export in its own right (for neighboring land-locked countries). The focus here is on the 'soft' side of transport procedures, regulations and services which are often overlooked in favor of hard infrastructure investments. Improvements on the soft side are typically more cost-effective if only because they cost little or no money.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Bank East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update, October 2024: Jobs and Technology(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-07)East Asia and the Pacific, seen in the context of the world economy, stands out as a paragon of development. Despite the recent ravages of the pandemic and the persistent tensions of geopolitics, the region is growing at stably high rates and the benefits are widely shared. But compared to its own past and potential, the region’s economic performance is less impressive. Growth is still below pre-pandemic rates, except in Indonesia, and output has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels in several countries, especially in the Pacific. This Economic Update highlights three key developments: shifting regional growth dynamics as China’s growth slows, changing trade patterns due to global tensions, and the impact of technologies such as robots, artificial intelligence, and digital platforms on jobs. The report calls for productivity-enhancing structural reforms to strengthen domestic growth drivers through; deeper international trade agreements to foster more open and stable trade regimes; deeper technical, digital, and soft skills while addressing impediments to labor mobility, factor price distortions and expanding social protection for workers in the digital informal economy to boost productivity and employment.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Georgia(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-17)Tourism is a major driver of Georgia's economic growth and diversification, revenue generated by international visitors amounted to 4.1 billion USD in 2023, making tourism one of the leading industries. However, the sector is far from reaching its full potential. Despite the impressive growth in arrivals experienced since 2009, Georgia relies heavily on visitors from neighboring countries. In 2023, the combined share of Russia, Turkiye, Armenia, and Azerbaijan accounted for sixty-one percent of the total international visitors’ trips, while emerging markets with higher expenditure levels still represent a small percentage of international tourism visitors. Georgia offers natural diversity, from green valleys and seaside to deserts and high mountains of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus, a variety of religious and historical attractions and a rich gastronomy, but only few regions concentrate a higher percentage of visitors - Tbilisi, Adjara and Mtskheta-Mtianeti. Limited connectivity (road access) and other relevant infrastructure and the availability of high-quality experiences and services is hindering the development of other destinations. The objective of this report is to identify key bottlenecks and challenges still affecting tourism sector development in Georgia and provide recommendations to enhance future economic development through sustainable, inclusive, and resilient tourism approaches.Publication Making Teacher Policy Work(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-08)This report zooms into what lies behind the success or failure of teacher policies: how teachers experience these policies, and how systems scale and sustain these policies. The report argues that for policies to be successful, they need to be designed and implemented with careful consideration of the barriers that could hinder teachers’ take-up of the policy (individual-level barriers), and the barriers that could hinder the implementation and sustainability of policies at scale (system-level barriers). Teacher polices too often fail to yield meaningful changes in teaching and learning because both their design and implementation overlook how teachers perceive, understand, and act in response to the policy and because they miss what is needed at a system level to achieve and sustain change. To avoid this, policymakers need to go beyond what works in teacher policy to how to support teachers in different contexts to adopt what works, while making sure it is implementable at scale and can be sustained over time. This requires unpacking teacher policies to consider the barriers that might hinder success at both the individual and system levels, and then putting in place strategies to overcome these barriers. The report proposes a practical framework to uncover the black box of effective teacher policy and discusses the factors that enable their scalability and sustainability. The framework distills insights from behavioral science to identify the barriers that stand in the way of the changes targeted by the policy and to develop strategies to overcome them. The framework is used to examine questions such as: What changes are required at an individual level to achieve the specific goals of a given teacher policy What barriers constrain the adoption of these changes How can the policy be better designed and implemented to tackle these barriers Moreover, the report draws on evidence from quantitative and qualitative studies on successful and failed teacher policies to examine the factors that make teacher policy operationally and politically feasible such that it can work at scale and be sustained over time.Publication Address to the Board of Governors(World Bank, Washington, DC, 1980-09-30)In his final address to the Board of Directors, President Robert S. McNamara discusses the future role of the Bank during a time in which surging oil prices threaten critical development tasks. He examines four themes: the prospects for economic growth and social advance in oil-importing developing countries; a program of structural adjustment that developing countries, industrialized nations, and OPEC countries can take to maximize growth; the need to accelerate the attack on absolute poverty; and the role the World Bank ought to play in the decade ahead.