Publication: Holding on to the MDGs (For Now)
Abstract
As we move into 2010, this article argues that there are three questions to ask in the MDGs review. First, have MDGs maintained their political resonance? Second, are the MDGs still realistic? Third, are the MDGs still an adequate proxy for the complexities of development? It considers some of the capacity constraints to progress in Africa, and the range of inputs required to reach desired outcomes - the MDGs.
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Publication To the MDGs and Beyond : Accountability and Institutional Innovation in Bangladesh(Washington, DC, 2006-07)In recent years Bangladesh has made impressive gains across a range of social indicators and has enjoyed strong economic growth, which together convincingly refute its reputation as an 'international basket case'. As a result, Bangladesh has achieved one of its Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) already, and will probably reach several more by 2015 a result few expected when the MDGs were originally agreed. But detailed analysis shows that most of the MDGs are unlikely to be met on the basis of continued economic growth alone, even at moderately higher levels. In order to meet the MDGs and achieve the sort of social progress of which it is capable Bangladesh needs to generate structural breaks in the trend lines of its principal social indicators. That is, it needs to shift to fundamentally higher rates of progress in the main social problems that it faces. If economic growth is not enough to achieve this, it is necessary to examine the institutions and delivery models responsible for the services that are meant to combat hunger, disease, mortality, ignorance and discrimination, to name a few. This report analyzes the specific policy and institutional reforms required for Bangladesh to increase its rate of progress towards the MDGs. Rather than examining each MDG in turn, with the attendant risk of producing a grocery list of piecemeal recommendations, we prefer to operationalize our task by focusing on the deep institutional and social determinants of two MDGs: maternal mortality and child mortality. In doing so, we hope to reach an analytically informed and coherent view of why performance varies drastically amongst Bangladesh's regions and models of service provision. The reasons for choosing these particular indicators are both obvious and subtle. Maternal and child mortality are, of course, important goals in and of themselves. They are also amongst the most complex of the MDGs in terms of the policy mix required for their attainment, with implications for hunger, education, nutrition, environmental, water and sanitation policy, and so on. Efforts to improve them must necessarily span multiple sectors in rural and urban areas in order to find the most appropriate package of policies and interventions. Bangladesh has made strong progress towards reducing income poverty, placing it roughly on track to meet the target of halving the share of the population living on less than US $1 per day by 2015. Rising and stable economic growth, underpinned by good economic and social policies, has been a key factor in making this possible. In addition, pioneering social entrepreneurship, often with creative partnerships under innovative institutional arrangements, has also contributed immensely to the successes attained. These successes have compensated somewhat for Bangladesh's critical and persistent weaknesses in governance.Publication Assessing the Odds of Achieving the MDGs(2011-10-01)How many countries are on target to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015? How many countries are off target, and how far are they from the goals? And what factors are essential for improving the odds that off-target countries can reach the goals? This paper examines these questions and takes a closer look at the diversity of country progress. The authors argue that the answers from the available data are surprisingly hopeful. In particular, two-thirds of developing countries are on target or close to being on target for all the Millennium Development Goals. Among developing countries that are falling short, the average gap of the top half is about 10 percent. For those countries that are on target, or close to it, solid economic growth and good policies and institutions have been the key factors in their success. With improved policies and faster growth, many countries that are close to becoming on target could still achieve the targets in 2015 or soon after.Publication Progress Toward the Health MDGs : Are the Poor Being Left Behind?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-05)This paper looks at differential progress on the health Millennium Development Goals between the poor and better-off within countries. The findings are based on original analysis of 235 Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, spanning 64 developing countries over the period 1990-2011. Five health status indicators and seven intervention indicators are tracked for all the health Millennium Development Goals. In most countries, the poorest 40 percent have made faster progress than the richest 60 percent. On average, relative inequality in the Millennium Development Goal indicators has been falling. However, the opposite is true in a sizable minority of countries, especially on child health status indicators (40-50 percent in the cases of child malnutrition and mortality), and on some intervention indicators (almost 40 percent in the case of immunizations). Absolute inequality has been rising in a larger fraction of countries and in around one-quarter of countries, the poorest 40 percent have been slipping backward in absolute terms. Despite reductions in most countries, relative inequalities in the Millennium Development Goal health indicators are still appreciable, with the poor facing higher risks of malnutrition and death in childhood and lower odds of receiving key health interventions.Publication Scaling up Aid or Scaling down : The Global Economic Crisis and Rwanda’s MDGs(2009-06-01)Rwanda is not on track to achieve most of the Millennium Development Goals at a time when hopes for scaled-up aid are mixed with concerns that, in the context of the global economic crisis, aid instead will be scaled down. This paper analyzes the effects of alternative scenarios for grant aid, government spending allocations (between infrastructure, agriculture, and human development), and government efficiency. The authors use an economy-wide model for development strategy analysis, Maquette for Millennium Development Goal Simulations. Under a plausible scenario for increased aid, annual growth in gross domestic product increases by as much as 0.6 percentage points relative to a baseline with a growth rate of 6 percent; by 2020, the headcount poverty rate declines to 32 percent, 3 percentage points lower than for the baseline. A plausible scenario for reduced aid leads to a symmetric growth reduction but a more pronounced increase in poverty, at 40 percent in 2020. When aid increases, the most positive growth and poverty reduction impacts occur if spending increases are allocated to infrastructure and agriculture; progress in human health and education is significant but weaker than if additional spending is focused on these areas. Given synergies and diminishing marginal returns from expansion in a limited area, the scenarios that may appear most attractive and politically feasible have a broad and balanced expansion across government functions, promoting both growth and human development.Publication Global Monitoring Report 2011 : Improving the Odds of Achieving the MDGs(World Bank, 2011-04-14)This report has been prepared jointly by the staffs of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This year we are facing historic development challenges from natural disasters, to food and fuel price spikes, and profound change in the Middle East. Despite high beverage growth in the developing world, it is crucial to provide opportunities to those that are being left behind. Wealthier economies are experiencing slower growth but development assistance needs remain high. In our interconnected world, sustainable recovery means supporting inclusive growth. Only four years remain until the 2015 deadline for reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The global monitoring report 2011: improving the odds of achieving the MDGs heterogeneity, gaps, and challenges underlines the urgency of helping countries that are behind on meeting key targets for extreme poverty, hunger, disease, and child and maternal mortality. The report lays out the challenges that remain; analyzes efforts to improve human development; and assesses the role of growth, policy reforms, trade, and donor policies in meeting the MDGs. The findings from this year's report offer reason for both hope and concern. The MDGs were designed to provide a framework for the entire international community to work together toward a common end: making sure that human development reaches everyone, everywhere. If these goals are achieved, billions more people will have the opportunity to benefit from the global economy.
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