Publication: Energy Subsidies, Public Investment and Endogenous Growth
Loading...
Files in English
1,541 downloads
Published
2017-11
ISSN
0301-4215
Date
2018-01-26
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
We consider impacts of fossil fuel subsidy reforms on economic growth, focusing mostly on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. The main empirical result is that a country that initially subsidizes its fossil fuels, and then eliminates or reduces these subsidies, will as a result experience higher economic GDP per capita growth, and higher levels of employment and labor force participation, especially among the young. These effects are strongest in countries whose fuel subsidies are high at the outset, such as in the MENA region. Our model predicts that a 20 US$ cents average increase in the gasoline and diesel prices per liter, through removal of subsidies, increase the GDP per capita growth rate by about 0.48% and 0.30%, respectively. In the MENA countries, governments’ savings from reduced subsidies seem to be earmarked mainly to health expenditures, education expenditures and public investment in infrastructure. These channels appear to be strong contributing factors to higher long-run growth when fuel subsidies are reduced.
Link to Data Set
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication How Much Can CO2 Emissions Be Reduced If Fossil Fuel Subsidies Are Removed?(Elsevier, 2017-05)This paper analyzes consumers' price elasticities of demand for fossil fuels, and how a reduction of fossil fuel subsidies can lead to important reduction in CO2 emissions for various groups of countries that have relatively high fossil fuel subsidies and notably on diesel, including countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). These countries continue to maintain significant levels of fuel subsidies, with Iran and Saudi Arabia being the largest contributors to CO2 emissions. This paper illustrates that fuel price policy reforms by these countries would be an important instrument for both climate and economic policies. We estimate that a reduction in subsidies to both gasoline and diesel by about 20 US$ cents per liter will lead to significant decreases in CO2 emissions, both in the MENA region and globally. In Iran, for example, the reductions could be up to 90% and 50% of current emissions generated from diesel and gasoline consumption, respectively, and for Saudi Arabia, approximately 70% and 40%, respectively.Publication Energy Subsidy Reform Assessment Framework(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-06-30)This note comes in three sections. First, the information required for political economy analysis of energy subsidy reforms is presented. Second, a summary is given of the information that can usually be obtained through desk research to provide the context for subsequent interviews and another field research. Third, information that probably requires interviews and field data collection is provided. The ultimate audience of the proposed types of analysis lies with policy reformers themselves and with external development and policy institutions that are seeking to help governments adopt more sustainable reforms. However, the direct audience for this note are those commissioning political economy analysis of energy subsidies, and technocrats, researchers, and advisers to policy makers carrying out the analysis. Often, a team made up of sector experts and political economy experts will provide a greater depth of analysis. Significant attention is devoted here to the origins and operation of existing subsidies since that history conditions what is possible for the adoption and sustainability of future reforms. The main interest and audience for this note is forward-looking, people and institutions who need to understand what is politically possible and how to realign political forces around successful reform. The authors are mindful that this role is perhaps different from other more technocratic roles of agencies and institutions focused on technical analysis and thus they also devote some attention to the processes needed to obtain and manage sensitive information and political insights since mismanagement in that realm can, itself, affect the political prospects for reform and harm the standing of reform agents in the process. In contrast to desk research or analysis of existing datasets, field research on political economy will always be an intervention in the local system, which needs to be managed well to increase and not decrease the space for reform and coalition building.Publication Croatia - Restructuring Public Finance to Sustain Growth and Improve Public Services : A Public Finance Review(Washington, DC, 2008-02)The year 2000 was a turning point in Croatian history, marked by closing the chapter of the war and the first phase of transition. With that, the country turned its attention to the "second transition,"the principle goal of which is to place Croatia on a path to the European Union (EU). While opening the economy to global markets through World Trade Organization (WTO) and CEFTA memberships and reestablishing cooperation with its Southeast European neighbors, the signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) marked the first firm milestone on Croatia's path to EU. In October 2005, Croatia opened EU accession negotiations, with the screening phase concluded a year after. Benefiting from successful economic transformation and the EU accession negotiations, growth has remained solid, and is roughly on par with the average for the European transition countries. Inflation has been modest despite higher prices for imported oil, and has been kept in check partly due to exchange rate appreciation. In fact, the central bank has intervened to prevent stronger appreciation in the face of robust capital inflows. However, the oil and commodity price increases and the aggregate demand pressures have contributed to a widening of the current account deficit in 2005-2007, despite somewhat tighter fiscal policy. Building on this foundation, the Government has an unparalleled opportunity to place Croatia on a sustainable growth path to achieve better living standards for all and to integrate into EU. To seize this opportunity, Croatia needs to sustain macroeconomic stability and continue creating a better climate for investment. In this context, key priorities for the public sector will include: reducing the size of the state and the fiscal deficit, and thereby helping to increase private sector productivity and competitiveness; and improving public sector efficiency and effectiveness. This report will suggest ways in which these twin priorities may best be addressed.Publication Croatia - Restructuring Public Finance to Sustain Growth and Improve Public Services : A Public Finance Review(2008-02)The year 2000 was a turning point in Croatian history, marked by closing the chapter of the war and the first phase of transition. With that, the country turned its attention to the "second transition,"the principle goal of which is to place Croatia on a path to the European Union (EU). While opening the economy to global markets through World Trade Organization (WTO) and CEFTA memberships and reestablishing cooperation with its Southeast European neighbors, the signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) marked the first firm milestone on Croatia's path to EU. In October 2005, Croatia opened EU accession negotiations, with the screening phase concluded a year after. Benefiting from successful economic transformation and the EU accession negotiations, growth has remained solid, and is roughly on par with the average for the European transition countries. Inflation has been modest despite higher prices for imported oil, and has been kept in check partly due to exchange rate appreciation. In fact, the central bank has intervened to prevent stronger appreciation in the face of robust capital inflows. However, the oil and commodity price increases and the aggregate demand pressures have contributed to a widening of the current account deficit in 2005-2007, despite somewhat tighter fiscal policy. Building on this foundation, the Government has an unparalleled opportunity to place Croatia on a sustainable growth path to achieve better living standards for all and to integrate into EU. To seize this opportunity, Croatia needs to sustain macroeconomic stability and continue creating a better climate for investment. In this context, key priorities for the public sector will include: reducing the size of the state and the fiscal deficit, and thereby helping to increase private sector productivity and competitiveness; and improving public sector efficiency and effectiveness. This report will suggest ways in which these twin priorities may best be addressed.Publication Zambia - Public Expenditure Review : Public Expenditure, Growth and Poverty - A Synthesis(Washington, DC, 2001-12)At the heart of the growth problem, the persistence of poverty, and issues of policy reform in Zambia is the public sector reform program. The best practice in public sector reform identifies three areas in which governments can improve their performance and their impact on the economy and poor: 1) macroeconomic discipline (the satabilization problem); 2) strategic priority setting (the allocation problem); and 3) efficient public-service delivery (the execution problem). Zambia's problem appears to be in all three areas. In particular, the aggregate performance, allocation, and execution of the budget are vital to the success of Zambia's public sector reform program. All three areas, particularly the allocation and execution issues, as they apply to public expenditure are the subject matter of the present public expenditure review (PER).
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2020 to 2024: Trends and Lessons Learned(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-22)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) provides a global benchmark of how container ports perform in handling vessel calls. Developed jointly by the World Bank and S&P Global Market Intelligence, it measures the time ships spend in port and relates this to the number of containers moved during that time. This approach makes the CPPI a unique diagnostic tool that can highlight patterns in port operations and shed light on global and regional supply chain dynamics. Now in its fifth edition, the CPPI report covers the period from 2020 to 2024. It builds on a well-established methodology to generate scores for more than 400 container ports worldwide. Over time, the CPPI has become a trusted reference point for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers who seek to understand how ports adapt to shocks, recover from disruptions, and identify opportunities for investments, reform and modernization. A major innovation in this edition is the introduction of multi-year trend analysis. Rather than presenting annual snapshots, the report now tracks how CPPI scores have changed across five years. This longitudinal perspective reveals shifts in port performance, showing where scores have risen, fallen, or remained stable. By linking these movements to external factors, the CPPI offers insights into how global and regional supply chains evolve under pressure. The results clearly mirror the crises that have shaken global trade. During the COVID-19 pandemic, CPPI scores in different regions declined sharply as congestion, equipment shortages, and delays overwhelmed many ports. By 2023, global averages rebounded in parallel with easing freight markets and reduced congestion. Yet 2024 brought new challenges: the Red Sea crisis disrupted major trade lanes, while climate-related constraints at the Panama Canal added further stress. These shocks were reflected in lower global and several regional average scores, underscoring the vulnerability of maritime transport to geopolitical and environmental events. The CPPI is not about comparing one port against another, but about understanding changes in performance over time. Ports that improved their scores often did so by reducing time at anchor, optimizing berth operations, investing in digital tools, and strengthening coordination across logistics partners. The evidence confirms that improvements are possible across ports of all sizes, and that rising scores are linked to deliberate actions to minimize time in port relative to containers moved. By consolidating five years of results, this edition transforms the CPPI into a long-term reference point. It shows how global crises have affected shipping, how different regions have adapted, and what lessons can be drawn for future resilience. The World Bank and S&P Global Market Intelligence remain committed to maintaining the CPPI as a global public good, providing transparency, comparability, and practical insights to support more reliable and sustainable maritime supply chains.