Publication:
Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030

dc.contributor.authorBurt, Alison
dc.contributor.authorHughes, Barry
dc.contributor.authorMilante, Gary
dc.date.accessioned2014-08-15T19:14:15Z
dc.date.available2014-08-15T19:14:15Z
dc.date.issued2014-08
dc.description.abstractAs the world approaches the target year of the Millennium Development Goals and passes into the new, post-2015 era, the development community has made a call for a new international development goal of eradication of extreme poverty by 2030. How feasible is that? For most of the developing world, the goal seems ambitious, yet achievable -- but what about the prospects for fragile states in which an increasingly large share of the global poor will live (estimated at nearly four in 10 by 2030)? This paper presents a base case scenario with the International Futures model that forecasts a 32 percent poverty rate for fragile states by 2030 given current conditions and trends. The paper considers alternative scenarios to identify a range of possible outcomes. In the most optimistic scenario, the paper steps beyond the search for realistic policy levers and simply assumes exceptional economic growth and decreased inequality for fragile states. This extremely optimistic scenario produces a forecast of a 20 percent extreme poverty rate for this group of countries. The paper then explores the effects of improved institutions and improved security in fragile states and of a set of poverty reduction policies that would be conditional on security and good governance to be effective. The resulting aggressive but reasonably attainable poverty rate in fragile states is 24 percent in 2030. With newly revised Purchasing Power Parity values (rebased to 2011 by the International Comparison Project in May of 2014), the 2030 forecasts of fragile state poverty rates are lower by 5 to 6 percent across all scenarios, still leaving them significantly above the 3 percent threshold for poverty eradication.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/08/20040315/eradicating-poverty-fragile-states-prospects-reaching-high-hanging-fruit-2030
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/19392
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank Group, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7002
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectACCESS TO ELECTRICITY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL YIELDS
dc.subjectAVERAGE GROWTH
dc.subjectBUREAUCRATIC QUALITY
dc.subjectCAPACITY-BUILDING
dc.subjectCAPITAL INVESTMENT
dc.subjectCASH TRANSFERS
dc.subjectCHANGES IN POVERTY
dc.subjectCHRONIC POVERTY
dc.subjectCIVIL SOCIETY
dc.subjectCLEAN WATER
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCONFLICT
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION GROWTH
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION PER CAPITA
dc.subjectCORRUPTION
dc.subjectCOUNTRY INEQUALITY
dc.subjectCURRENT POVERTY
dc.subjectDEMOCRACY
dc.subjectDENSITY FUNCTION
dc.subjectDETERMINANTS OF POVERTY
dc.subjectDEVELOPED WORLD
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subjectDEVELOPING WORLD
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT GOALS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT REPORT
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT RESEARCH
dc.subjectDIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectDIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectECONOMICS
dc.subjectEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectFINANCIAL FLOWS
dc.subjectFOREIGN AID
dc.subjectGINI COEFFICIENT
dc.subjectGINI INDEX
dc.subjectGLOBAL PARTNERSHIP
dc.subjectGLOBAL POVERTY
dc.subjectGOOD GOVERNANCE
dc.subjectGOVERNANCE PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHEALTH CARE
dc.subjectHEALTH OUTCOMES
dc.subjectHIGH GROWTH
dc.subjectHIGH INEQUALITY
dc.subjectHIPC
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT
dc.subjectIMPROVING GROWTH
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
dc.subjectINCOME GENERATION
dc.subjectINCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subjectINCOME LEVEL
dc.subjectINCOME LEVELS
dc.subjectINCREASING INEQUALITY
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectINEQUALITY CHANGES
dc.subjectINEQUALITY CONSTANT
dc.subjectINEQUALITY DATA
dc.subjectINEQUALITY REDUCTION
dc.subjectINEQUALITY WILL
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL CHANGE
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL REFORM
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL REFORMS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectINTERVENTION
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLIFE EXPECTANCY
dc.subjectLOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMEAN VALUE
dc.subjectNATIONAL ACCOUNTS
dc.subjectNATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectPOLICY CHANGES
dc.subjectPOLICY LEVEL
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLITICAL REFORMS
dc.subjectPOOR
dc.subjectPOOR COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPOOR HEALTH
dc.subjectPOOR INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectPOOR LIVING
dc.subjectPOOR PEOPLE
dc.subjectPOOR POPULATION
dc.subjectPOOR POPULATIONS
dc.subjectPOPULOUS COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPOST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPOVERTY ANALYSIS
dc.subjectPOVERTY ERADICATION
dc.subjectPOVERTY ESTIMATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY GOALS
dc.subjectPOVERTY LEVELS
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINE
dc.subjectPOVERTY MEASURES
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION POLICIES
dc.subjectPOVERTY TARGET
dc.subjectPRIMARY SCHOOL
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCES
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER PARITY
dc.subjectQUALITY OF LIFE
dc.subjectREDUCED INEQUALITY
dc.subjectREDUCED POVERTY
dc.subjectREDUCING INEQUALITY
dc.subjectREDUCTION IN POVERTY
dc.subjectREGIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS
dc.subjectSANITATION
dc.subjectSOCIAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectSOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectSTANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subjectSTATE CAPACITY
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL POLICIES
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectTRADE OPENNESS
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY
dc.titleEradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030en
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2014-08-01
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/08/20040315/eradicating-poverty-fragile-states-prospects-reaching-high-hanging-fruit-2030
okr.globalpracticePoverty
okr.globalpracticeGovernance
okr.guid909761468170347362
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7002
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20140812143408
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum20040315
okr.identifier.reportWPS7002
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/08/12/000158349_20140812143408/Rendered/PDF/WPS7002.pdfen
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Rural Poverty Reduction
okr.topicGovernance::Governance Indicators
okr.topicPoverty Monitoring and Analysis
okr.topicServices and Transfers to Poor
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.unitFragile and Conflict-Affected Countries Group
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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