Publication:
Predicting Food Crises

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dc.contributor.authorSpencer, Phoebe
dc.contributor.authorKraay, Aart
dc.contributor.authorWang, Dieter
dc.contributor.authorAndree, Bo, Pieter Johannes
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-24T21:02:57Z
dc.date.available2020-09-24T21:02:57Z
dc.date.issued2020-09
dc.description.abstractGlobally, more than 130 million people are estimated to be in food crisis. These humanitarian disasters are associated with severe impacts on livelihoods that can reverse years of development gains. The existing outlooks of crisis-affected populations rely on expert assessment of evidence and are limited in their temporal frequency and ability to look beyond several months. This paper presents a statistical forecasting approach to predict the outbreak of food crises with sufficient lead time for preventive action. Different use cases are explored related to possible alternative targeting policies and the levels at which finance is typically unlocked. The results indicate that, particularly at longer forecasting horizons, the statistical predictions compare favorably to expert-based outlooks. The paper concludes that statistical models demonstrate good ability to detect future outbreaks of food crises and that using statistical forecasting approaches may help increase lead time for action.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/304451600783424495/Predicting-Food-Crises
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9412
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/34510
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9412
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectFAMINE
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectFOOD INSECURITY
dc.subjectEXTREME EVENT
dc.subjectCOST-SENSITIVE LEARNING
dc.subjectFOOD CRISIS
dc.subjectUNBALANCED DATA
dc.subjectHUMANITARIAN CRISIS
dc.subjectTARGETING
dc.subjectFORECASTING
dc.subjectSTATISTICAL MODEL
dc.titlePredicting Food Crisesen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titlePredicting Food Crises
okr.date.disclosure2020-09-22
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/304451600783424495/Predicting-Food-Crises
okr.guid304451600783424495
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9412
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9412
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b087df42f9_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum32425033
okr.identifier.reportWPS9412
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/304451600783424495/pdf/Predicting-Food-Crises.pdfen
okr.statistics.combined4746
okr.statistics.dr304451600783424495
okr.statistics.drstats2510
okr.topicAgriculture::Food Security
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Climate Change Economics
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Development Economics & Aid Effectiveness
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Forecasting
okr.topicScience and Technology Development::Climate and Meteorology
okr.topicScience and Technology Development::Statistical & Mathematical Sciences
okr.unitFragility, Conflict and Violence Global Theme; and the Development Economics Vice Presidency
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