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Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia

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dc.contributor.authorBogetic, Zeljko
dc.contributor.authorSmits, Karlis
dc.contributor.authorBudina, Nina
dc.contributor.authorvan Wijnbergen, Sweder
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-19T18:38:43Z
dc.date.available2012-03-19T18:38:43Z
dc.date.issued2010-03-01
dc.description.abstractRussia entered the global crisis with strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in 2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5 percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability. Following a period of adjustment, if Russia would restrain its long-term non-oil deficits to the permanent income (PI) equivalent of its oil revenues as proposed in this paper, its fiscal policy will return to long-term sustainable path. The long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit is estimated at about 4.3 percent of GDP. With the 2009 actual non-oil fiscal deficit of about 14 percent of GDP, this implies significant and sustained fiscal adjustment over the medium term. The expenditure needs of the social security system as well as a reduction in key non-oil taxes represent a major fiscal risk to all scenarios.en
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100317120425
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-5240
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/3727
dc.languageEnglish
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5240
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectALLOCATION
dc.subjectARREARS
dc.subjectASSET POSITION
dc.subjectBANK BORROWING
dc.subjectBANK EQUITY
dc.subjectBANK LENDING
dc.subjectBANK LOANS
dc.subjectBANK POLICY
dc.subjectBANKING CRISIS
dc.subjectBANKING SECTOR
dc.subjectBANKING SYSTEM
dc.subjectBASELINE SCENARIO
dc.subjectBASIS POINT
dc.subjectBASIS POINTS
dc.subjectBOND SPREADS
dc.subjectBUDGET BALANCE
dc.subjectBUDGET CONSTRAINT
dc.subjectBUDGET LAW
dc.subjectBUDGET PLANNING
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCAPITAL ADEQUACY
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subjectCAPITAL GAIN
dc.subjectCAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL INVESTMENT
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKET
dc.subjectCAPITAL OUTFLOW
dc.subjectCAPITAL OUTFLOWS
dc.subjectCASH SETTLEMENTS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCOLLATERAL
dc.subjectCOMMERCIAL BANK
dc.subjectCOMMERCIAL BANKS
dc.subjectCORPORATE BORROWERS
dc.subjectCOUNTRY RISK
dc.subjectCREDIT RISK
dc.subjectCREDIT RISKS
dc.subjectCREDITOR
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectCURRENCY CRISIS
dc.subjectDEBT ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectDEBT CRISES
dc.subjectDEBT DYNAMICS
dc.subjectDEBT LEVELS
dc.subjectDEBT OVERHANG
dc.subjectDEBT RESTRUCTURING
dc.subjectDEBT SERVICING
dc.subjectDEBT-SERVICE
dc.subjectDEBTOR
dc.subjectDEFAULT RISK
dc.subjectDEFICITS
dc.subjectDEPOSIT
dc.subjectDEPOSITS
dc.subjectDEVALUATION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subjectDOMESTIC GOODS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC LIQUIDITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC RECOVERY
dc.subjectEMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKET
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKET BOND
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE COMMITMENTS
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE CONTROL
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE LEVEL
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE LEVELS
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE POLICY
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE PROGRAMS
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL BORROWING
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FINANCING
dc.subjectFEDERAL BUDGET
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CONDITIONS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL FLOWS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR INDICATORS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL STATEMENTS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SYSTEM
dc.subjectFISCAL ADJUSTMENT
dc.subjectFISCAL BALANCE
dc.subjectFISCAL COST
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICITS
dc.subjectFISCAL EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectFISCAL IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectFISCAL LAXITY
dc.subjectFISCAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFISCAL POSITION
dc.subjectFISCAL PROGRAM
dc.subjectFISCAL PRUDENCE
dc.subjectFISCAL REFORMS
dc.subjectFISCAL REVENUE
dc.subjectFISCAL RISK
dc.subjectFISCAL RISKS
dc.subjectFISCAL RULES
dc.subjectFISCAL SAVINGS
dc.subjectFISCAL STANCE
dc.subjectFISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subjectFIXED CAPITAL
dc.subjectFLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectFOREIGN BORROWING
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subjectFOREIGN DEBT
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REVENUES
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectHIGHER INTEREST
dc.subjectHIGHER INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectIMPLICIT SUBSIDIES
dc.subjectINCOME LEVEL
dc.subjectINCOME STREAM
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATIONARY PRESSURES
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
dc.subjectINTEREST EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT PROJECTS
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLEVEL OF DEBT
dc.subjectLEVEL OF RISK
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY RATIO
dc.subjectLOAN
dc.subjectLOAN PORTFOLIOS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION
dc.subjectMARKET ACCESS
dc.subjectMARKET ECONOMY
dc.subjectMATURITIES
dc.subjectMEDIUM-TERM FISCAL FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectMINISTRY OF FINANCE
dc.subjectMONETARY FUND
dc.subjectNEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectNET BORROWING
dc.subjectNET DEBT
dc.subjectNET PRESENT VALUE
dc.subjectNET SAVINGS
dc.subjectNON-PERFORMING LOANS
dc.subjectNONPAYMENT
dc.subjectNONPAYMENTS
dc.subjectOIL PRICE
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectOIL RESERVE
dc.subjectOIL RESERVES
dc.subjectOIL RESOURCES
dc.subjectOPERATIONAL DECISIONS
dc.subjectPENSIONS
dc.subjectPERPETUITY
dc.subjectPOLICY RESPONSE
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRICE MOVEMENTS
dc.subjectPRICE UNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPRIVATE CAPITAL
dc.subjectPRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCES
dc.subjectPUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR
dc.subjectPUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectRESERVE
dc.subjectRESERVE FUND
dc.subjectRESERVES
dc.subjectRETURN
dc.subjectRETURNS
dc.subjectRISK ASSESSMENTS
dc.subjectSERVICE CHARGES
dc.subjectSOCIAL EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROGRAMS
dc.subjectSOCIAL SECURITY
dc.subjectSOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM
dc.subjectSOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectSOLVENCY
dc.subjectSPENDING LEVELS
dc.subjectSTABILIZATION PROGRAMS
dc.subjectSTOCKS
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL REFORMS
dc.subjectSUB-NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS
dc.subjectSUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE FISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAX COLLECTIONS
dc.subjectTAX RATE
dc.subjectTOTAL EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTRADE CREDITS
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectTREASURY
dc.subjectTREASURY MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectWORKING CAPITAL
dc.titleLong-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russiaen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleLong-Term Fiscal Risks And Sustainability In An Oil-Rich Country : The Case Of Russia
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:53:46.975259Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100317120425
okr.guid146401468163477973
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-5240
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20100317120425
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum11958451
okr.identifier.reportWPS5240
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2010/03/17/000158349_20100317120425/Rendered/PDF/WPS5240.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryRussian Federation
okr.region.geographicalEurope
okr.region.geographicalEastern Europe
okr.region.geographicalCommonwealth of Independent States
okr.region.geographicalAsia
okr.topicPublic Sector Expenditure Policy
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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