Publication: Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia
Loading...
Date
2010-03-01
ISSN
Published
2010-03-01
Editor(s)
Abstract
Russia entered the global crisis with strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in 2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5 percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability. Following a period of adjustment, if Russia would restrain its long-term non-oil deficits to the permanent income (PI) equivalent of its oil revenues as proposed in this paper, its fiscal policy will return to long-term sustainable path. The long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit is estimated at about 4.3 percent of GDP. With the 2009 actual non-oil fiscal deficit of about 14 percent of GDP, this implies significant and sustained fiscal adjustment over the medium term. The expenditure needs of the social security system as well as a reduction in key non-oil taxes represent a major fiscal risk to all scenarios.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Bogetic, Zeljko; Smits, Karlis; Budina, Nina; van Wijnbergen, Sweder. 2010. Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia. Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5240. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3727 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Asymmetric Bank Distress Amplifier of Recessions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-11)One defining feature of financial crises, evident in U.S. and international data, is asymmetric bank distress—concentrated losses on a subset of banks. This paper proposes a model in which shocks to borrowers’ productivity dispersion lead to asymmetric bank losses. The framework exhibits a “bank distress amplifier,” exacerbating economic downturns by causing costly bank failures and raising uncertainty about the solvency of banks, thereby pushing banks to deleverage. Quantitative analysis shows that the bank distress amplifier doubles investment decline and increases the spread by 2.5 times during the Great Recession compared to a standard financial accelerator model. The mechanism helps explain how a seemingly small shock can sometimes trigger a large crisis.Publication From Tailwinds to Headwinds(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-10)The first quarter of the twenty-first century has been transformative for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). These economies now account for about 45 percent of global GDP, up from about 25 percent in 2000, a trend driven by robust collective growth in the three largest EMDEs—China, India, and Brazil (the EM3). Collectively, EMDEs have contributed about 60 percent of annual global growth since 2000, on average, double the share during the 1990s. Their ascendance was powered by swift global trade and financial integration, especially during the first decade of the century. Interdependence among these economies has also increased markedly. Today, nearly half of goods exports from EMDEs go to other EMDEs, compared to one-quarter in 2000. As cross-border linkages have strengthened, business cycles among EMDEs and between EMDEs and advanced economies have become more synchronized, and a distinct EMDE business cycle has emerged. Cross-border business cycle spillovers from the EM3 to other EMDEs are sizable, at about half of the magnitude of spillovers from the largest advanced economies (the United States, the euro area, and Japan). Yet EMDEs confront a host of headwinds at the turn of the second quarter of the century. Progress implementing structural reforms in many of these economies has stalled. Globally, protectionist measures and geopolitical fragmentation have risen sharply. High debt burdens, demographic shifts, and the rising costs of climate change weigh on economic prospects. A successful policy approach to accelerate growth and development should focus on boosting investment and productivity, navigating a difficult external environment, and enhancing macroeconomic stability.Publication Intergenerational Income Mobility around the World(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-09)This paper introduces a new global database with estimates of intergenerational income mobility for 87 countries, covering 84 percent of the world’s population. This marks a notable expansion of the cross-country evidence base on income mobility, particularly among low- and middle-income countries. The estimates indicate that the negative association between income mobility and inequality (known as the Great Gatsby Curve) continues to hold across this wider range of countries. The database also reveals a positive association between income mobility and national income per capita, suggesting that countries achieve higher levels of intergenerational mobility as they grow richer.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Macroeconomic Shocks and Banking Sector Developments in Egypt(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01)From 2008 to 2011, Egypt was hit by significant shocks, both global and country-specific. This paper assesses the impact of the resulting macroeconomic instability on the banking sector, and examines its role as a shock absorber. The Central Bank of Egypt accommodated the shocks by supplying liquidity to the market. The paper verifies a change in the fiscal regime from one in which the primary fiscal balance was used an instrument to stabilize the public debt ratio to one in which the policy instrument stopped playing that role and affected investors' assessment of the risk of holding public debt. This pattern suggests that fiscal conditions influenced exchange rate and price expectations originating a fiscal dominance situation in which the Central Bank could not control inflation. Hence, the Central Bank lacked functional independence in spite of its de jure independence, which underscores the importance of strengthening institutions that facilitate policy coordination and allow policy to be more predictable. The government also funds itself through non-market mechanisms, in a typical financial repression scheme. The paper estimates the revenue from financial repression at about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2011, which together with the revenues from seignoriage add up to close to 50 percent of the budgeted tax revenues, indicating the need for an in-depth review of the governance of the public banks and the funding of public sector activities. Finally, the paper estimates the impact of shocks to macroeconomic variables on loan portfolio quality and bank capital.Publication Philippines Quarterly Update, December 2011(World Bank, Pasig City, Philippines, 2011-12)After a strong rebound in 2010, Philippine economic growth slowed by more than half to 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011. Slower third quarter (Q3) growth of 3.2 percent was the result of significant contractions in exports and public investment. The contraction in exports largely reflected weaker demand in advanced economies while public investments continued to shrink in part because of measures to improve accountability of public spending. On the production side, industrial and agricultural activities were sluggish, leaving the services sector to buoy growth. To improve growth outcome in the remainder of the year, the government announced a PHP 72 billion (about 0.7 percent of GDP) disbursement acceleration plan to ensure that budgeted items are spent by year end. After a strong rebound in 2010, Philippine economic growth slowed by more than half to 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011, bringing year to date growth below the government's revised target of 4.5 to 5.5 percent for 2011. Q3 growth of 3.2 percent was driven by private consumption and inventory build-up, which grew by 7.1 and 147.7 percent respectively. The country's slower expansion places it behind its neighbors with Indonesia, Vietnam, and Singapore growing above 6 percent, Malaysia at 5.8 percent, and Thailand, which was devastated by massive flooding in recent months, at 3.5 percent.Publication Moderating Risks, Bolstering Growth(Washington, DC, 2012-04)Half a year ago, Russia's economic prospects looked uncertain. The global economy was losing momentum, the expansion in the euro area was grinding to a halt and commodity prices were beginning to fall. Yet, while output growth is slowing this year in line with weaker growth in Europe and elsewhere, Russia's latest economy performance has been solid, though aided by favorable oil prices. The economy returned to the pre-crisis peak towards the end of last year, supported by strong consumption, as growth held steady at the same rate as in 2010. In 2011, measured in current dollars, Russia's economy was the ninth biggest in the world, compared to the eleventh biggest in 2007. This year, Russia's output might exceed US$2 trillion. Equalizing for prices difference with purchasing power parity, Russia's economy is already the sixth biggest today. The current account looks strong thanks to a large surplus in the trade balance, and the Central Bank of Russia added again in 2011 to its stock of foreign reserves. Employment returned to pre-crisis levels even earlier than output, and wages grew at a solid pace. Inflation reached its lowest level in two decades. Inequality declined and consumption levels of low-income households improved. The fiscal balance returned to a surplus. And while average public debt levels in advanced economies exceeded 100 percent of growth domestic product (GDP) in 2011, Russia's public debt was no more than 10 percent of GDP. Economic policies can help to shore up Russia's resilience in a volatile economic environment, diversify its economy, and strengthen its growth potential. First, fiscal policy should be used to rebuild fiscal buffers while oil prices are high. This will not only help to prepare for the next crisis, but also make sure that fiscal policy does not become procyclical as the output gap closes. Furthermore, monetary policy should continue to focus on low inflation, and financial policies on strengthening oversight. Finally, removing structural barriers to growth can help to bolster investment and productivity. Improving the business environment will go a long way to make the most of the economic benefits of Russia's World Trade Organization accession in summer 2012.Publication India Development Update, October 2013(Washington, DC, 2013-10)Although the recent market turmoil has been driven primarily by external factors, it has magnified India's macroeconomic vulnerabilities. India was just one of a large number of emerging market economies whose currency and capital account were adversely affected by a large outflow of portfolio investment this summer. The current downturn presents an opportunity to push ahead with critical reforms. The current situation is unlikely to place an insurmountable stress on the economy, but it does offer an opportunity for measures to strengthen the business environment, attract more Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and increase productivity. The rupee depreciated sharply in May-August 2013, mainly caused by market fears of an early end to the Federal Reserve's stimulus program. As global investors shifted funds into US treasuries, the May-August fall in the rupee closely mirrored movements in other emerging market currencies and US T-bonds. The current account deficit moderated and exports performance improved. After reaching a record high of 6.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter FY2013, the current account deficit improved to 3.6 percent of GDP in the fourth quarter. The decline in poverty has accelerated, but vulnerability remains high. Between 2005 and 2012, India lifted 137 million people out of poverty and reduced the poverty headcount (at the national poverty line) to 22 percent of the population. The depreciation in the rupee is unlikely to have major adverse effects and provides an opportunity to accelerate growth through further progress on the reform agenda. Financing of the gap is expected to come in roughly equal parts from FDI and institutional flows in FY2014, with a growing contribution from FDI in FY2015.Publication Russia Economic Report, No. 31, March 2014 : Confidence Crisis Exposes Economic Weakness(Moscow, 2014-03)Real Gross Domestic Product or GDP growth slowed to an estimated 1.3 percent in 2013 from 3.4 percent of 2012. In January 2013, we projected 3.6 percent growth for 2013, but while the global economy has continued to improve at a moderate pace, Russia's is struggling to find its footing. The first part of this report explores the recent economic developments that underlie this slowdown. To emerge from the downturn with improved long-term prospects Russia will need a combination of cyclical and structural policy measures. As the relative weight of the reasons for Russia's downturn is tilted toward structural factors, structural measures will need to lead the rebound. The lack of more comprehensive structural reforms in the past has led to a gradual erosion of investor confidence. This was masked by a growth model based on large investment projects, continued increases in public wages, and transfers, all fueled by sizeable oil revenues. Recent events around the Crimea have compounded the lingering confidence problem into a crisis of confidence and more clearly exposed the economic weakness of this growth model. Investor pessimism became the decisive factor affecting Russia's economic outlook, presented in part two of the report. The special focus note in part three discusses the link between Russia's growth in the past decade and how it fueled an unprecedented growth in household welfare.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2024: Better Education for Stronger Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-17)Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is likely to moderate from 3.5 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent this year. This is significantly weaker than the 4.1 percent average growth in 2000-19. Growth this year is driven by expansionary fiscal policies and strong private consumption. External demand is less favorable because of weak economic expansion in major trading partners, like the European Union. Growth is likely to slow further in 2025, mostly because of the easing of expansion in the Russian Federation and Turkiye. This Europe and Central Asia Economic Update calls for a major overhaul of education systems across the region, particularly higher education, to unleash the talent needed to reinvigorate growth and boost convergence with high-income countries. Universities in the region suffer from poor management, outdated curricula, and inadequate funding and infrastructure. A mismatch between graduates' skills and the skills employers are seeking leads to wasted potential and contributes to the region's brain drain. Reversing the decline in the quality of education will require prioritizing improvements in teacher training, updated curricula, and investment in educational infrastructure. In higher education, reforms are needed to consolidate university systems, integrate them with research centers, and provide reskilling opportunities for adult workers.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication World Development Report 2011(World Bank, 2011)The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.