Publication: 2021 Compounding Misfortunes: An Update to the Study
Date
2021-03
ISSN
Published
2021-03
Author(s)
World Bank Group
UNHCR
World Food Programme
Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement
Abstract
COVID-19 (coronavirus) has had an
enormous impact on nearly every country in the world.
However, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon were already facing
difficult to extreme circumstances even before the pandemic
erupted, making them particularly vulnerable. This report
looks at the impact of the pandemic, associated lockdowns
and economic shocks and other misfortunes which have
compounded the crisis, such as sharply lower oil revenues in
Iraq and the Port of Beirut explosion in Lebanon, as well as
political instability in both. The report estimates that 4.4
million people in the host communities and 1.1 million
refugees or IDPs were driven into poverty in the immediate
aftermath of the crisis, and while this considers all of
Lebanon, it only includes three governorates in Jordan and
the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, due to data limitations. A
response commensurate with the magnitude of the shock is
needed to prevent further misery. The poverty impact of
COVID-19 and the ensuing confinement policies and economic
contractions have been felt throughout the world, not least
by marginalized communities. However, COVID-19 has
compounded existing vulnerabilities or crises in Jordan, the
Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and Lebanon. Syrian refugees
– most of whom have been displaced for up to nine years –
are particularly exposed given their perilous pre-crisis
situation. Host communities in these three countries, who
have supported and accommodated such large numbers of
refugees, have also been heavily affected; all three
countries were in strained positions prior to COVID-19,
ranging from economic stagnation and high public debt in
Jordan, to a collapse in public revenues due to
international oil price shocks in KRI, to complete political
and economic crisis in Lebanon. By March 2020, all three
countries had witnessed their first cases of COVID-19 and
introduced stringent containment policies ranging from
partial closures of schools and shops to full curfew. While
these measures were initially largely successful in
containing the spread of the pandemic, they also led to a
decline in economic activity across most sectors,
particularly in the informal market. In Jordan and Iraq, the
losses are estimated at around 8.2 and 10.5 percent of
2019’s GDP respectively. In Lebanon where the COVID-19
crisis is compounded by economic and political crises the
losses are much higher, around 25 percent of GDP. Lebanon
has experienced inflation of over 100 percent, largely due
to its import dependence and currency depreciation.
Unsurprisingly, given the magnitude of these shocks, recent
rapid needs assessments and UNHCR administrative data show
that refugees, who are highly concentrated in low-skilled
jobs in the informal sector, have had to reduce food intake,
incur additional debt and in some instances suffered eviction.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group; UNHCR; World Food Programme; Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement. 2021. 2021 Compounding Misfortunes: An Update to the Study. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35365 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”