Publication: Crop Selection : Adapting to Climage Change in Africa
Date
2007-08
ISSN
Published
2007-08
Author(s)
Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
Mendelsohn, Robert
Abstract
This paper examines whether the choice
of crops is affected by climate in Africa. Using a
multinomial logit model, the paper regresses crop choice on
climate, soils, and other factors. The model is estimated
using a sample of more than 7,000 farmers across 11
countries in Africa. The study finds that crop choice is
very climate sensitive. For example, farmers select sorghum
and maize-millet in the cooler regions of Africa;
maize-beans, maize-groundnut, and maize in moderately warm
regions' and cowpea, cowpea-sorghum, and
millet-groundnut in hot regions. Further, farmers choose
sorghum, and millet-groundnut when conditions are dry;
cowpea, cowpea-sorghum, maize-millet, and maize when medium
wet; and maize-beans and maize-groundnut when wet. As
temperatures warm, farmers will shift toward more heat
tolerant crops. Depending on whether precipitation increases
or decreases, farmers will also shift toward drought
tolerant or water loving crops, respectively. There are
several policy relevant conclusions to draw from this study.
First, farmers will adapt to climate change by switching
crops. Second, global warming impact studies cannot assume
crop choice is exogenous. Third, this study only examines
choices across current crops. Future farmers may well have
more choices. There is an important role for agronomic
research in developing new varieties more suited for higher
temperatures. Future farmers may have even better adaptation
alternatives with an expanded set of crop choices
specifically targeted at higher temperatures.
Citation
“Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Mendelsohn, Robert. 2007. Crop Selection : Adapting to Climage Change in Africa. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4307. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/626e1170-61b3-5f6b-a753-c5b1912df389 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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