Publication: Growth Recovery in Southern Europe: A Dozen Lessons, Old and New
Loading...
Published
2016-11
ISSN
Date
2016-12-05
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain entered a period of severe economic and financial stress in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. Their collective experience confirmed the primacy of total debt, private or public, in affecting the onset of, depth of, and recovery from economic crises. The year 2010 and the years following have demonstrated the ways in which policy responses to crisis-related downturns must be adapted when major international partners experience simultaneous growth slowdowns and markets exhibit increased risk aversion. This paper compares the recovery experience of these countries in light of recent policy debates and research on the impact of macroeconomic and structural reforms. It highlights that (a) the quality of the policies adopted to stabilize economies in the short run affects growth recovery in the long run; and (b) macroeconomic policies (fiscal and monetary) are most effective in supporting growth when they take into account structural differences between countries and when policies complement each other. The country experiences indicate that a holistic view of factors affecting investment, exports, and employment is needed to understand the impact of macroeconomic and structural reforms on output. In the absence of such a holistic view, policy may neglect to influence the binding constraints to growth.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Islam, Roumeen. 2016. Growth Recovery in Southern Europe: A Dozen Lessons, Old and New. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7877. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25677 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Climate and Social Sustainability in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Contexts(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)Climate change is widely recognized as a driver of violent conflict, but its broader social effects remain less understood. Ignoring these dimensions risks a vicious cycle where climate policies might undermine socially just adaptation. Evidence is still limited on how climate shocks influence political participation, trust, or migration. This paper helps fill that gap by examining links between climate change, conflict, and social sustainability, with a focus on inclusion, resilience, cohesion, and legitimacy. Using secondary data from 2019–24, the study applies simple correlation-based methods to test three hypotheses on the nature, severity, and composition of these associations. The analysis combines multiple climate impact measures, new conflict classifications, recent social sustainability frameworks, and controls for population and geography. The results reveal strong correlations—not causation—between climate events and contexts of fragility, conflict, and violence. Climate impacts are most pronounced in both national and subnational conflict settings. The study also finds robust links between fragility, conflict, and violence and low levels of social sustainability, reflecting its role as both a driver and consequence of conflict. Some dimensions—such as violent events and insecurity—appear weaker in areas most affected by climate shocks. Two of the hypotheses are supported, and one remains inconclusive.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.Publication South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08)Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.Publication Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)The world faces a pressing challenge to meet key development objectives amid slowing growth and rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. With the number of job seekers rising rapidly, infrastructure shortfalls continuing to be large, and climate costs mounting, the case for a significant investment push has never been stronger. Yet the capacity to respond in many emerging markets and developing economies has eroded. Since the global financial crisis, investment growth has slowed to about half its pace in the 2000s, with both public and private investment weakening. Foreign direct investment inflows—a critical source of capital, technology, and managerial know-how—have also fallen sharply and become increasingly concentrated, leaving low-income countries with only a marginal share. The risks of further retrenchment are significant, as trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and elevated debt levels continue to weigh on investment. Reigniting momentum will require ambitious domestic reforms to strengthen institutions, rebuild macro-fiscal stability, and deepen trade and investment integration—the foundations of a supportive business climate. At the same time, international cooperation is indispensable. A renewed commitment to a predictable system of cross-border trade and investment flows, combined with scaled-up financial support and sustained technical assistance, is essential to help emerging markets and developing economies—especially low-income countries and economies in fragile and conflict situations—bridge financing gaps and implement the domestic reforms needed to restore investment as an engine of growth, jobs, and development.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Macroeconomic Context and Fiscal Policy Design : Europe and Central Asia during 2000–2012(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2013-09)This paper examines the interaction between fiscal policy and the broader macroeconomic context in open economies. It asks two questions. First, what was the relationship between fiscal policy and current account balances in countries in Europe and Central Asia during the past dozen years? Second, how might changes in (a) output composition and (b) financial sector profitability affect revenues and thus, the assessment of the underlying structural fiscal balance? The study finds that, for flexible exchange rate countries, expansionary fiscal policy has been associated with wider current account deficits. Moreover, changes in net exports and in financial sector profitability may have significant impacts on fiscal balances because of changes in revenues from the value-added tax and the corporate profits tax as a share of gross domestic product. These findings suggest that the countries of Europe and Central Asia have reason to be prudent in terms of fiscal policy choices, even as gross domestic product rises.Publication EU11 Regular Economic Report, Issue #29, July 2014 : Strengthening Recovery in Central and Eastern Europe(Washington, DC, 2014-07)Economic growth is expected to almost double in EU111 in 2014, and continues to strengthen in 2015. Overall EU11 GDP growth is forecast to strengthen from 1.4 percent in 2013 to 2.6 percent in 2014. The initial reliance on net export growth, with rising demand from the rest of the EU, is gradually giving way to more balanced growth as domestic demand picks-up, notably in Romania, Slovakia and Poland. Fiscal consolidation will continue in 2014 and 2015, but at a more gradual pace than in the previous years. The overall EU11 fiscal deficit is expected to drop to 2.9 percent of GDP in 2014 and to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2015. However, there is a need for larger adjustments in Croatia and Slovenia to achieve sustainable deficit and debt levels. Economic growth forecasts in the EU11 are subject to multiple risks, mainly on the downside, as the global financial situation remains fragile. While labor market conditions have started to improve, the pace of job creation and reduction in unemployment rates are likely to be gradual.Publication Strengthening Recovery in Central and Eastern Europe : EU11 Regular Economic Report(Washington, DC, 2014-01)Economic growth is expected to almost double in EU11 (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia) in 2014, and continue to strengthen in 2015. The northern countries of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania will continue to be amongst the fastest growing countries in the EU, despite the negative impact of falling external demand as growth slows in their main trading partners. Croatia is the only country expected to remain in recession, for a sixth consecutive year, in 2014, as declining domestic demand continues to outweigh export growth. Recovery is expected to be gradual, with growth not reaching pre-crisis rates for some time. Inflation rates are expected to remain below targets during 2014, with some countries already experiencing deflation, but as global commodity prices stabilize, activity increases and output gaps diminish, inflation is expected to gradually rise. Fiscal consolidation will continue in 2014 and 2015, but at a more gradual pace than in the previous years. Economic growth forecasts in the EU11 are subject to multiple risks, mainly on the downside, as the global financial situation remains fragile. Rising global interest rates coupled with volatile capital markets, or an extended period of regional geopolitical tensions could slow the European recovery and constrain exports, credit and investment in EU11. While labor market conditions have started to improve, the pace of job creation and reduction in unemployment rates are likely to be gradual. Many of the economies in the EU11 face the twin challenge of high youth unemployment and rapidly aging populations. EU11 countries also struggle with equipping the next generation with the skills necessary to achieve their full potential e.g. in literacy, math and science. The persistence of large numbers of inactive and unemployed youth therefore poses unique risks of creating a "lost generation" of workers. Understanding the cyclical and structural nature of youth unemployment is therefore important to mitigate the potentially damaging cycle between youth unemployment and broader economic growth and productivity.Publication South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 6 : Brittle recovery(Washington, DC, 2014-05)This report covers economic developments, prospects, and policies in six South Eastern European countries (SEE6): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. South East Europe (SEE6)'s economy recovered from the 2012 recession, growing by 2.2 percent on average in 2013. Each of the SEE6 countries marked positive growth rates in 2013, with growth at or exceeding 3 percent in Kosovo, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro. External demand for SEE6 exports, especially by the European Union (EU), was the key driver of the recovery. On the production side, SEE6 drivers of growth were mixed, but in all countries a good agricultural year supported economic activity. An export-led recovery combined with depressed domestic demand resulted in a significant narrowing of current account imbalances in all SEE6 countries. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment financed most of the current account deficits in SEE6. Overall, SEE6 countries are having limited success in translating the economic recovery into job creation. SEE6 countries reduced their fiscal deficits to 3.8 percent of GDP in 2013 from 4.3 percent of GDP in 2012. The pace of fiscal adjustment and still nascent economic growth were insufficient to reverse public debt dynamics in SEE6. In a low-inflation environment, SEE6 central banks moderately loosened monetary policy. The financial sector remained broadly stable, albeit fragile, in the course of 2013. The SEE region is projected to grow at 1.9 percent in 2014 and 2.6 percent in 2015 on the back of external demand. The positive growth since mid-2013 and the still accommodative monetary conditions of the Euro Area are likely to continue help SEE6 exports to grow, despite notable risks related to the outlook for the Euro Area (related to the slow reform implementation and prolonged period of low inflation or risk of deflation).Publication South East Europe Regular Economic Report, June 2012(Washington, DC, 2012-06)After they achieved 2.2 percent growth in 2011, early indications are that the economies of the six countries in South East Europe (the SEE6: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia) are slowing drastically and can expect just 1.1 percent growth in 2012. Economic conditions in the Euro zone are holding back economic activity and depressing government revenues in SEE6 countries. With both public debt and financing pressures high, most countries in the region need to embark on major fiscal consolidation programs if they are to reverse their adverse debt dynamics and avoid financing problems down the road. The good news is that in general the SEE6 financial sectors are still relatively well placed, despite elevated risks and vulnerability to adverse shocks, especially the possibility of contagion if the Greek crisis should intensify. The bad news is social: SEE6 countries have the highest unemployment and poverty rates in Europe. Yet even with the difficult short-term situation, SEE6 countries now have historic opportunity to board the European 'convergence train' and over the long term reduce their per capita income gap with developed European Union (EU) countries. All earlier entrants were able to 'catch up quickly.' In principle, the same 'convergence train' is now pulling into the EU candidate countries in SEE6; but these gains are not automatic, they will materialize only if country policies and reforms facilitate them. The long-term SEE6 structural reform agenda must leverage greater trade and financial integration and reform labor markets and the public sector.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication The Role of Social Ties in Factor Allocation(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-10)We investigate whether social structure helps or hinders factor allocation using unusually rich data from the Gambia. Evidence indicates that land available for cultivation is allocated unequally across households; and that factor transfers are more common between neighbors, co-ethnics, and kinship-related households. Does this lead to the conclusion that land inequality is due to flows of land between households being impeded by social divisions? To answer this question, a novel methodology that approaches exhaustive data on dyadic flows from an aggregate point of view is introduced. Land transfers lead to a more equal distribution of land and to more comparable factor ratios across households in general. But equalizing transfers of land are not more likely within ethnic or kinship groups. In conclusion, ethnic and kinship divisions do not hinder land and labor transfers in a way that contributes to aggregate factor inequality. Labor transfers do not equilibrate factor ratios across households. But it cannot be ruled out that they serve a beneficial role, for example, to deal with unanticipated health shocks.Publication MIGA Annual Report 2013 : Insuring Investments, Ensuring Opportunities(Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-11)In fiscal year 2013, Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) issued 2.8 billion dollars in investment guarantees for projects in our developing member countries. At 1.5 billion dollars, representing more than half of new business, the bulk of MIGA's guarantees issued support investments in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sixty-nine percent of new business volume this year was in complex projects in infrastructure and extractive industries, a strategic priority for the Agency. This year, 82 percent of MIGA's new volume fell into one or more of strategic priority areas: investments in the world's poorest countries, "South-South" investments, investments in conflict-affected countries, and investments in complex projects. MIGA also established the conflict-affected and fragile economies facility to further deepen support to this priority area.Publication The Firm-Level Impact of the Covid–19 Pandemic(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09-02)The World Bank commissioned a firm-level survey to provide quantitative evidence of the impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Two rounds of data have now been collected for the months of March and May using a nationally representative World Bank survey providing information on the impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The survey includes five hundred firms spanning a wide range of industries and firm sizes, as well as the formal and informal sector. This note provides a snapshot of how the firms’ outcomes and response to the pandemic have changed between the months of March and May 2020.Publication Impact of Migration on Economic and Social Development : A Review of Evidence and Emerging Issues(2011-02-01)This paper provides a review of the literature on the development impact of migration and remittances on origin countries and on destination countries in the South. International migration is an ever-growing phenomenon that has important development implications for both sending and receiving countries. For a sending country, migration and the resulting remittances lead to increased incomes and poverty reduction, and improved health and educational outcomes, and promote economic development. Yet these gains might come at substantial social costs to the migrants and their families. Since many developing countries are also large recipients of international migrants, they face challenges of integration of immigrants, job competition between migrant and native workers, and fiscal costs associated with provision of social services to the migrants. This paper also summarizes incipient discussions on the impacts of migration on climate change, democratic values, demographics, national identity, and security. In conclusion, the paper highlights a few policy recommendations calling for better integration of migration in development policies in the South and the North, improving data collection on migration and remittance flows, leveraging remittances for improving access to finance of recipient households and countries, improving recruitment mechanisms, and facilitating international labor mobility through safe and legal channels.