Publication: Kazakhstan - On the Crest of the Oil Wave: Kazakhstan Economic Update, Spring 2013
Loading...
Files in English
440 downloads
Published
2013-03-31
ISSN
Date
2015-07-08
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Economic growth slowed in 2012 due to capacity constraints in the oil sector, weaker global demand for metals, and unfavorable weather conditions affecting crop production. Overall, industrial output expanded by 0.5 percent in 2012, with negligible contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the year. Against the decline of agriculture, and little change in industry overall, real GDP growth was supported by a 10 percent year/year growth of the services sector in 2012. Higher export revenues supported strong domestic demand for trade and transportation, as well as for other non-tradable services. High oil prices continued spurring domestic consumption while fixed capital investments remained depressed. Private consumption remains the main contributor to GDP growth as it has been growing by 9-10 percent a year since 2010, supported by favorable commodity prices and high oil export revenue. Exports of oil largely influence the composition of Kazakhstans trading partners, while membership in the customs union appears to be affecting composition of imports. The European Union (EU) maintains the first place among trading partners of Kazakhstan, mainly due to large imports of oil and other mineral resources from Kazakhstan. Overall, employment creation continues to be driven by the services sector. Kazakhstan growth has been pro-poor, driven by job creation and real income gains. However, income disparity, which had improved up to 2009, has worsened slightly due to the crisis.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Sarsenov, Ilyas; Madani, Dorsati. 2013. Kazakhstan - On the Crest of the Oil Wave: Kazakhstan Economic Update, Spring 2013. Kazakhstan economic update;. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22126 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Russia Economic Report, No. 31, March 2014 : Confidence Crisis Exposes Economic Weakness(Moscow, 2014-03)Real Gross Domestic Product or GDP growth slowed to an estimated 1.3 percent in 2013 from 3.4 percent of 2012. In January 2013, we projected 3.6 percent growth for 2013, but while the global economy has continued to improve at a moderate pace, Russia's is struggling to find its footing. The first part of this report explores the recent economic developments that underlie this slowdown. To emerge from the downturn with improved long-term prospects Russia will need a combination of cyclical and structural policy measures. As the relative weight of the reasons for Russia's downturn is tilted toward structural factors, structural measures will need to lead the rebound. The lack of more comprehensive structural reforms in the past has led to a gradual erosion of investor confidence. This was masked by a growth model based on large investment projects, continued increases in public wages, and transfers, all fueled by sizeable oil revenues. Recent events around the Crimea have compounded the lingering confidence problem into a crisis of confidence and more clearly exposed the economic weakness of this growth model. Investor pessimism became the decisive factor affecting Russia's economic outlook, presented in part two of the report. The special focus note in part three discusses the link between Russia's growth in the past decade and how it fueled an unprecedented growth in household welfare.Publication Russia Economic Report, No. 30, September 2013 : Structural Challenges to Growth Become Binding(Washington, DC, 2013-09)Russia's economy lost steam in 2013. Growth slowed to 1.4 percent in the first half (H1) of 2013, compared to 4.5 percent in H1 2012. This report examines in its first part several aspects of the economic slowdown. It shows that the slowdown was largely the result of weaker demand, which was due to a combination of external and domestic factors, some of which are cyclical and others structural. The structural challenges to the Russian economy and its growth, such as non-competitive sectors and markets, are another important factor to consider in the economic slowdown. The special focus note in part three of this report discusses the link between growth patterns in Russia, firm survival and diversification in manufacturing and will also highlight the impact of limited competition as a structural constraint. This note looks at the role of growth volatility as a possible explanation. It examines the role of surges and slumps in manufacturing output and its microeconomic implications in the dynamics of emergence and sustainability of nascent economic activities. The dynamics of the industrial output of the economy as whole, between 1993 and 2009, are the focus of this study. This note examines the downturns that magnify and accelerate the cleansing effects to the economy in forcing inefficient firms to exit, as well as the upturns that set the foundations of economic diversification by giving new economic activities the opportunity to emerge. This note has three main findings. First, Russian manufacturing output growth is characterized by a higher volatility than other comparator countries. Second, this volatility is mostly driven by more numerous, deeper and longer slumps and is mostly associated with aggregate slumps that have yearly effects. Third, while the economic surges increase the probability that productive firms remain in the market, the same is not true of economic slumps-older firms, not necessarily more productive ones, are more likely to survive the downturn. Furthermore, in sectors in which competition is less fierce, firms have a higher likelihood of weathering a slump.Publication Kazakhstan Growth Slows as External Pressures Rise : Kazakhstan Economic Update, Fall 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-09-30)Kazakhstan is experiencing slower economic growth in 2014 due to negative supply- and demand-side effects. The Kazakh authorities are using expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand. An uncertain global economic environment and regional geopolitical tensions pose risks to the economic outlook of Kazakhstan. If the economic slowdown starts to have a negative effect on the labor market, the government has instruments to mitigate its impact on the most vulnerable population. The government has identified a set of reforms that are expected to help diversify the economy and expand the non-oil sector. They have launched a major program of support for the development of small- and medium-sized enterprises, including by addressing the constraints related to access to credit. They are also working to improve the national regulatory and governance framework that will enhance the transparency and efficiency of economic transactions, facilitate private sector participation, and improve service delivery to the population. Ongoing reforms in customs administration and the courts are part of its reform agenda.Publication Russian Economic Report, April 2015(Washington, DC, 2015-04)Russia's economy experienced two shocks in 2014. On top of the structural crisis that began in 2012, Russia had to deal with cyclical and idiosyncratic challenges to the economy. One of the new shocks illustrates Russia s integration into the world economy through its natural resource exports, and thus its dependence on the global commodity cycle: oil prices more than halved between July and December 2014, giving Russia a terms-of-trade shock. The ruble lost 46 percent of its value against the US dollar, which worsened already eroded business and consumer confidence. The monetary tightening in response made credit expensive, further dampening domestic demand. The other, more idiosyncratic, shock was related to the geopolitical tensions that began in March 2014 and led to economic sanctions. The tensions not only heightened perceptions that Russian investments had become riskier, they also dramatically increased the costs of external borrowing for Russian banks and firms. Spreads on Russian credit default swaps peaked in December at 578 basis points, compared to 159 a year ago. Together with the financial sanctions imposed on Russia in late July, which have restricted the access of Russia s largest state-connected banks and firms to Western international finance markets, this all but extinguished investment. The current World Bank baseline outlook, however, sees the national poverty rate increasing from 10.8 percent in 2013 to 14.2 percent in 2015 and 2016. Poverty is expected to increase because real disposable income and consumption will decline. This would be the first significant increase in poverty rates since the 1998-1999 crises. Russia weathered the 2008- 2009 crisis well as disposable incomes continued to grow slightly. Given the current limited fiscal space, additional support for the poor and vulnerable is likely to be less generous than it was during the 2008-2009 crisis. Although people at the bottom of the income distribution are the most vulnerable, there will be less opportunity for an increase in shared prosperity in 2015-2016, and there is a worrisome possibility that recent achievements might be reversed.Publication Kazakhstan : Short-Term Vulnerabilities, Positive Prospects(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-03-31)This economic update is structured as follows: section A describes the recent economic developments, with a focus on emerged imbalances in the external accounts, which led to growing depreciation expectations and resulted in the one-off tenge devaluation in early 2014. Section B provides an overview of recent macroeconomic policies and the government's forward-looking vision of moving toward a diversified knowledge-based economy by improving the country's endowments. Section C outlines the medium-term economic prospects for Kazakhstan, which is expected to benefit from the global economic recovery, but face risks, both external and domestic. Section D discusses possible short- to medium-term impacts of the devaluation on the economy and suggests a set of policy measures to mitigate inflationary pressures.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Sourcebook on the Foundations of Social Protection Delivery Systems(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-07-30)The Sourcebook synthesizes real-world experiences and lessons learned of social protection delivery systems from around the world, with a particular focus on social and labor benefits and services. It takes a practical approach, seeking to address concrete “how-to” questions, including: How do countries deliver social protection benefits and services? How do they do so effectively and efficiently? How do they ensure dynamic inclusion, especially for the most vulnerable and needy? How do they promote better coordination and integration—not only among social protection programs but also programs in other parts of government? How can they meet the needs of their intended populations and provide a better client experience? The Sourcebook structures itself around eight key principles that can frame the delivery systems mindset: (1) delivery systems evolve over time, do so in a non-linear fashion, and are affected by the starting point(s); (2) additional efforts should be made to “do simple well”, and to do so from the start rather than trying to remedy by after-the-fact adding-on of features or aspects; (3) quality implementation matters, and weaknesses in the design or structure of any core system element will negatively impact delivery; (4) defining the “first mile” for people interface greatly affects the system and overall delivery, and is most improved when that “first mile” is understood as the weakest link in delivery systems); (5) delivery systems do not operate in a vacuum and thus should not be developed in silos; (6) delivery systems can contribute more broadly to government’s ability to intervene in other sectors, such as health insurance subsidies, scholarships, social energy tariffs, housing benefits, and legal services; (7) there is no single blueprint for delivery systems, but there are commonalities and those common elements constitute the core of the delivery systems framework; (8) inclusion and coordination are pervasive and perennial dual challenges, and they contribute to the objectives of effectiveness and efficiency.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.