Publication:
Taking Stock, July 2015: An Update on Vietnam's Recent Economic Developments

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (3.91 MB)
1,113 downloads
English Text (149.48 KB)
138 downloads
Date
2015-07
ISSN
Published
2015-07
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Economic activity continued to firm up in 2015, driven by domestic demand. After coming in at 6 percent in 2014, GDP growth accelerated to 6.28 percent during the first half of 2015, the fastest first-half-of-the-year growth rate in the past five years. The recovery was driven by strong activity in manufacturing and construction, which together contributed nearly half of overall GDP growth. Retail sales also performed strongly, posting 8.3 percent (in real terms) in the first six months of 2015, up from 6.3 percent in 2014. However, despite the pickup in retail activity, overall services (which account for nearly 40 percent of GDP) rose modestly at 5.9 percent in the first half of 2015. In part, this reflected a struggling tourism sector, with tourist visits in the first six months down by 11 percent year-on-year. On the demand side, stronger growth was driven by investment (spurred by strong FDI inflows) and stronger private consumption boosted by low inflation. The contribution of net exports turned negative as sluggish external demand weighed on export growth while strengthened domestic activity continued to fuel import growth.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2015. Taking Stock, July 2015: An Update on Vietnam's Recent Economic Developments. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22342 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Vietnam's Labor Market Institutions, Regulations, and Interventions
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-03) Schmillen, Achim D.; Packard, Truman G.
    Over the past 30 years, Vietnam has experienced significant shifts of employment away from agriculture toward manufacturing and services, away from household enterprises toward registered and regulated businesses, and away from state-owned enterprises toward private firms. This paper argues that for these processes to continue in the future, appropriately designed and implemented labor market policies need to be in place, including labor market regulations that protect workers but do not inhibit creative destruction and creation of formal sector jobs; labor market interventions that improve workers' human capital, eliminate information asymmetries, and are fiscally sustainable; and labor market institutions that give voice to workers and employers. As a part of all of these measures, Vietnam will also have to renew its efforts to integrate vulnerable groups into the labor market.
  • Publication
    Employment Protection Legislation and Labor Market Outcomes : Theory, Evidence and Lessons for Croatia
    (Washington, DC, 2011-07) World Bank
    In response to prolonged recession, in April 2010 the Croatian Government adopted an Economic Recovery Program to safeguard macroeconomic stability and support faster recovery of the private sector. A central element of the program is revision of labor regulations to create a more dynamic labor market by ensuring labor force flexibility and job security. The goal is to increase the labor force participation rate and ensure that it has the skills and competencies required by the evolving and dynamic private sector. The Croatian Ministries of Finance and labor asked the World Bank for support in design of possible labor legislation reform. The objective of this note is to benchmark Croatia's legislation and help identify legal constraints on achieving a more dynamic and flexible labor market. Changes to employment protection legislation (EPL) can be politically difficult. They therefore need to be preceded by a public information campaign explaining their rationale and by dialogue with social partners. The central message to be conveyed to the public is that relaxing the most rigid provisions of the labor law will eventually lead to better employment prospects, shorter spells of unemployment, less informality, and higher productivity and ultimately incomes. This involves moving from protecting jobs to protecting workers an idea known as flexicurity.
  • Publication
    Labor Market Institutions : A Review of the Literature
    (World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2012-11) Betcherman, Gordon
    This paper reviews the findings of more than 150 studies on the impacts of four types of labor market institutions: minimum wages, employment protection regulation, unions and collective bargaining, and mandated benefits. The review places particular emphasis on results from developing countries. Impacts studied are on living standards (employment and earnings effects), productivity, and social cohesion, to the extent that this has been analyzed. Strong and opposing views are held on the costs and benefits of labor market institutions. On balance, the results of this review suggest that, in most cases, the impacts of these institutions are smaller than the heat of the debates would suggest. Efficiency effects of labor market regulations and collective bargaining are sometimes found but not always, and the effects can be in either direction and are usually modest. Distributional impacts are clearer, with two effects predominating: an equalizing effect among covered workers but groups such as youth, women, and the less skilled disproportionately outside the coverage and its benefits. While the overall conclusion is one of modest effects in most cases, this does not mean that impacts cannot be more dramatic where regulations are set or institutions operate in ways that exacerbate the labor market imperfections that they were designed to address.
  • Publication
    Job Creation in Mozambique : Is Labor Law Reform the Answer?
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-11) Ministry of Planning and Development, Mozambique; World Bank
    This paper analyzes the potential economic impact of changes to the labor laws proposed in 2006. The economic logic behind these reforms is reviewed, and the conditions under which the reforms could be expected to have the maximum impact on employment are isolated. Next, the experiences of selected developing countries which have undertaken similar reforms are reviewed, which showed the importance of initial conditions and economic trends outside of the labor market in ensuring a successful reform. Third, the main provisions of the proposed reforms are explained. The analysis concludes that given Mozambique s initial conditions, including strong demand from private sector employers for change, the scope of proposed reforms, and the potential for continued economic growth, the reforms should increase firms' profit margins, and as a result, a positive employment effect is possible in the medium term. The analysis also shows that although the reforms are deep compared with the starting point, even if reforms are enacted, Mozambique's labor market would still be classified as rigid by international benchmarks. The report concludes with a discussion of the possible social and poverty effect. In the short run, there is a danger of layoffs in some of the larger firms which had previously reported being overstaffed. If this happens, the poverty effect would certainly be negative in the short run. The concluding section notes that other countries have avoided these types of layoffs by introducing transition arrangements.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Jobs Report
    (World Bank, Jakarta, 2010-06) World Bank
    Indonesia has enjoyed a demographic dividend over the last forty years. The working population has been growing faster than the population of non-working dependents. This presents a major opportunity for economic growth and poverty reduction, provided that more jobs and better jobs are created to employ a workforce, which will grow by an estimated 20 million workers over the next ten years. Today's policy makers in Indonesia face a strategic challenge in identifying which policies and programs will spur the creation of good jobs while, at the same time, ensuring that workers are better protected from risks threatening their income security. Decisions about labor policies are particularly difficult because they can directly affect the well-being of workers, both inside and outside the formal jobs market, and the firms that are the main engines of job growth. Sound empirical data will help guide the debate around labor reform. The Indonesia jobs report, prepared by the World Bank in cooperation with the Government of Indonesia and local research partners, is the most comprehensive assessment of the country's labor market that has been carried out in the last decade. The report uses the most up-to-date data available to examine the performance of the labor market, changes in the supply of workers, and the effects of labor policies. The findings will help inform future policy directions and contribute towards evidence-based decision making. Stimulating the growth of better jobs requires a multi-pronged approach. This report recommends much needed reforms of labor policies and programs. Equally important, however, are reforms that accelerate job creation by improving infrastructure and the investment climate, alongside reforms that aim at improving the quality of education. Success will depend on working partnerships between the government, employer associations, labor unions and other civil society groups, with the support of Indonesia's think tanks and international development partners. This report helps reinvigorate policy dialogue about job creation and worker security. Learning from experiences and international best practices, Indonesia will be better prepared to navigate a course towards 'win-win' solutions that accelerate the creation of better jobs without sacrificing adequate protection for workers.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12) Malpass, David
    World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.
  • Publication
    Taking Stock, March 2025: Electrifying Journeys
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-12) World Bank
    Viet Nam’s real GDP growth reached 7.1 percent in 2024, driven by a strong rebound in exports, outpacing most regional peers. External demand strongly rebounded in 2024 after a contraction in 2023. Final consumption and investment growth also accelerated in 2024 reaching 6.6 and 7.2 percent, respectively, supporting the growth momentum. However, private consumption remained a moderate driver of aggregate demand relative to the region (54 percent of GDP compared to a median of 61.7 percent, respectively) as household savings increased amid heightened uncertainty in recent years. Viet Nam’s GDP growth is forecast to moderate to 6.8 percent in 2025 before settling at 6.5 percent in 2026. The rebound in exports in 2024 is expected to ease in 2025 and further into 2026 due to projected economic slowdown in China and the United States in the near-team - Viet Nam’s largest trade partners – and uncertain global trade prospects from shifts in trade policy. Domestic activities and services are expected to continue to firm up in 2025 and into 2026 as the real estate market recovery gathers steam. The outlook for Viet Nam remains positive but with heightened uncertainties. Given Viet Nam’s openness to the global economy, the main uncertainty stems from slower-than-expected global growth and trade disruptions, particularly among major trading partners such as the United States, European Union, and China. Such developments, including heightened uncertainties from trade policy shifts and deepening trade fragmentation, could impact Viet Nam’s manufacturing exports, industrial production, and growth. On the other hand, increased public investment could further support demand and contribute to growth. An accelerated recovery in the real estate market thanks to faster project clearance could further boost domestic demand. The special focus of this edition focuses on preparing e-mobility transition in the transport sector. This analysis examines the critical steps required to decarbonize road transportation in Vietnam by using electric vehicles and rolling out a network of public charging stations. It explores the implications of this transition on electricity demand, greenhouse gas emissions, and job creation. The report presents a set of recommendations to achieve the Government’s ambitious target of having 50 percent of urban vehicles and 100 percent of urban buses and taxis powered by electricity or green energy by 2030, and subsequently reaching 100 percent for all road vehicles by 2050.
  • Publication
    Economic Recovery
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06) Malpass, David; Georgieva, Kristalina; Yellen, Janet
    World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-01) World Bank
    Middle-income countries are in a race against time. Many of them have done well since the 1990s to escape low-income levels and eradicate extreme poverty, leading to the perception that the last three decades have been great for development. But the ambition of the more than 100 economies with incomes per capita between US$1,100 and US$14,000 is to reach high-income status within the next generation. When assessed against this goal, their record is discouraging. Since the 1970s, income per capita in the median middle-income country has stagnated at less than a tenth of the US level. With aging populations, growing protectionism, and escalating pressures to speed up the energy transition, today’s middle-income economies face ever more daunting odds. To become advanced economies despite the growing headwinds, they will have to make miracles. Drawing on the development experience and advances in economic analysis since the 1950s, World Development Report 2024 identifies pathways for developing economies to avoid the “middle-income trap.” It points to the need for not one but two transitions for those at the middle-income level: the first from investment to infusion and the second from infusion to innovation. Governments in lower-middle-income countries must drop the habit of repeating the same investment-driven strategies and work instead to infuse modern technologies and successful business processes from around the world into their economies. This requires reshaping large swaths of those economies into globally competitive suppliers of goods and services. Upper-middle-income countries that have mastered infusion can accelerate the shift to innovation—not just borrowing ideas from the global frontiers of technology but also beginning to push the frontiers outward. This requires restructuring enterprise, work, and energy use once again, with an even greater emphasis on economic freedom, social mobility, and political contestability. Neither transition is automatic. The handful of economies that made speedy transitions from middle- to high-income status have encouraged enterprise by disciplining powerful incumbents, developed talent by rewarding merit, and capitalized on crises to alter policies and institutions that no longer suit the purposes they were once designed to serve. Today’s middle-income countries will have to do the same.
  • Publication
    Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06) Calleja, Ramon V., Jr.; Mbuya, Nkosinathi V.N.; Morimoto, Tomo; Thitsy, Sophavanh
    The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.