Publication: Slovak Republic : Development Policy Review, Volume 2. Main Report
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2002-11
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2013-09-09
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Although the unsustainably high external current account, and fiscal deficits may be financed with the country's capital account surplus (twenty percent of GDP), such situation is not likely to last. The country's policy impact on the real exchange rate, undermines the employability of large segments of the population, which will ultimately hamper growth. The study proposes an agenda on key issues, such as curtailing enterprise subsidies, and other guarantee payments, redirecting, rather than expanding, existing expenditure programs to meet the eligibility criteria for structural funds financing. In addition, further increasing the retirement age, would put public pensions on a sustainable footing, and avoid the massive fiscal deficits the demographic transition is bringing, and, postponing the revenue reduction (from 38 percent of GDP in 2000 to a projected 35 percent in 2002, to a target of 33 percent of GDP in 2004) until such time as the expected cutback in expenditure has actually materialized, should be part of the development agenda. The tax burden should be balanced away from payroll taxes, e.g., streamlining Value Added Tax (VAT) refunds, or trimming tax incentives for investment to European Union-compatible levels. Moreover, the planned increases in electricity, and natural gas tariffs should be brought forward, and, the internal trade border within the Czech-Slovak customs union should be brought down ahead of EU accession. Longer term reform efforts should focus on social protection, health care, and education, based on a governance approach built on transforming budget frameworks, consolidating decentralization efforts, and launching a major judicial reform.
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“World Bank. 2002. Slovak Republic : Development Policy Review, Volume 2. Main Report. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15731 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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While the growth momentum was still strong in the first half of 2011, it slowed toward the end of the year, as the region started to feel the impact of lingering concerns about European sovereign-debt markets, creeping oil prices, and the global slowdown. With the downward trend in economic activity, labor markets remained slack. Unemployment rates hovered around those recorded in the midst of the global financial crisis with sluggish employment growth. The paper points out that the European economic growth model has delivered unprecedented welfare to the continent over the last half century. In spite of its remarkable success, several aspects of the European economic growth model require reform to ensure that it is sustainable. Among the priorities for many European states today are providing incentives for labor mobility, making public finances more sustainable, and adapting social security systems to demographic developments, and harmonizing regulation across borders. This note zeroes in on the EU11 region to explore what is driving their prosperity and growth. The main messages related to the drivers of growth and prosperity in EU11 are as follows: 1) Convergence; 2) Trade and finance; 3) Enterprise and innovation; 4) Labor; and 4) Government.Publication Moderating Risks, Bolstering Growth(Washington, DC, 2012-04)Half a year ago, Russia's economic prospects looked uncertain. The global economy was losing momentum, the expansion in the euro area was grinding to a halt and commodity prices were beginning to fall. Yet, while output growth is slowing this year in line with weaker growth in Europe and elsewhere, Russia's latest economy performance has been solid, though aided by favorable oil prices. The economy returned to the pre-crisis peak towards the end of last year, supported by strong consumption, as growth held steady at the same rate as in 2010. In 2011, measured in current dollars, Russia's economy was the ninth biggest in the world, compared to the eleventh biggest in 2007. This year, Russia's output might exceed US$2 trillion. Equalizing for prices difference with purchasing power parity, Russia's economy is already the sixth biggest today. The current account looks strong thanks to a large surplus in the trade balance, and the Central Bank of Russia added again in 2011 to its stock of foreign reserves. Employment returned to pre-crisis levels even earlier than output, and wages grew at a solid pace. Inflation reached its lowest level in two decades. Inequality declined and consumption levels of low-income households improved. The fiscal balance returned to a surplus. And while average public debt levels in advanced economies exceeded 100 percent of growth domestic product (GDP) in 2011, Russia's public debt was no more than 10 percent of GDP. Economic policies can help to shore up Russia's resilience in a volatile economic environment, diversify its economy, and strengthen its growth potential. First, fiscal policy should be used to rebuild fiscal buffers while oil prices are high. This will not only help to prepare for the next crisis, but also make sure that fiscal policy does not become procyclical as the output gap closes. Furthermore, monetary policy should continue to focus on low inflation, and financial policies on strengthening oversight. Finally, removing structural barriers to growth can help to bolster investment and productivity. Improving the business environment will go a long way to make the most of the economic benefits of Russia's World Trade Organization accession in summer 2012.
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