Publication:
How Public Spending Can Help You Grow : An Empirical Analysis for Developing Countries

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2011-02
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2012-08-13
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Although many studies indicate that both the level and composition of public spending are significant for economic growth, the results in the empirical literature are still mixed. This note is based on a paper of the same title (Bayraktar and Moreno-Dodson 2010) that compares a set of fast-growing developing countries to a mix of developing countries with different growth patterns. Considering the full government budget constraint, the empirical analysis shows that public spending, especially its 'core' components, contributes to economic growth only in countries that are capable of using funds for productive purposes. In addition, those countries must have an adequate economic policy environment with macroeconomic stability, openness, and private sector investments that are conducive to growth.
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Moreno-Dodson, Blanca; Bayraktar, Nihal. 2011. How Public Spending Can Help You Grow : An Empirical Analysis for Developing Countries. Economic Premise; No. 48. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/10107 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
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  • Publication
    How Can Public Spending Help You Grow? An Empirical Analysis for Developing Countries
    (2010-07-01) Bayraktar, Nihal; Moreno-Dodson, Blanca
    Although many studies indicate that both the level and composition of public spending are significant for economic growth, the results in the empirical literature are still mixed. This paper studies the importance of country sample selection and expenditure classification in explaining these conflicting results. It investigates a set of fast-growing countries versus a mix of countries with different growth patterns. The regression specifications include different components of public expenditure and total fiscal revenues, always considering the overall government budget constraint. Total public spending is first disaggregated using a definition that classifies public spending as productive versus unproductive components, an a priori criterion that is based on the expected impact of public spending items on the private sector production function. After empirically confirming the validity of this definition in the panel analysis, the authors suggest and test an alternative definition of "core" public spending that may be more appropriate for developing countries. The empirical analysis shows that the link between growth and public spending, especially the productive and "core" components, is strong only for the fast-growing group. In addition, macroeconomic stability, openness, and private sector investment are significant in the fast-growing group, which points to the existence of an economic policy environment more conducive to growth in the first group of countries. The authors conclude that public spending can be a significant determinant of growth for countries that are capable of using funds for productive purposes.
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    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-07) Moreno-Dodson, Blanca
    The goal of this paper is to understand better, at the empirical level, how public spending contributes to growth by focusing on both the level and composition of public spending, in connection to the dynamics of GDP per capita growth. It attempts to answer two specific questions: (a) What are the policy conditions under which public spending contributes positively to growth? and (b) What are the public spending components that have a stronger and longer-lasting impact on growth? The analysis is applied to a sample of seven fast-growing developing countries: Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Botswana, and Mauritius, which have been among the top performers in the world in terms of GDP per capita growth during the period (1960-2006). The rationale for this country sample selection is twofold. The first hypothesis is that, given their positive growth achievements over a relatively long time period, perhaps it is more straightforward to establish a link to public spending in those countries. Second, it is expected that the findings of the analysis will provide lessons regarding the level and composition of public spending that can be useful for other countries where growth has been less rapid. Assessing what role public spending has played in a dynamic growth context may indeed be enlightening for other cases as well. The paper is structured as follows. The first section is an introduction that provides relevant facts and information about the seven countries during the period of analysis, based on seven individual country case studies. Section II presents the theoretical background behind the empirical analysis. Section III focuses on the empirical methodology, function specification, and variables selected. Section IV is dedicated to the results obtained with the cross-country analysis and some specific country results, as well as some comparisons with previous findings by other authors. Finally, Section V draws policy implications and concludes.
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