Publication: Narrow Incumbent Victories and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines
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2020-01
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2020-01-30
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Abstract
Post-election violence is a common form of conflict, but its underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Using data from the 2007 Philippine mayoral elections, this paper provides evidence that post-election violence is particularly intense after narrow victories by incumbents. Using a density test, the study shows that incumbents were substantially more likely to win narrow victories than their challengers, a pattern consistent with electoral manipulation. There is no evidence that the increase in post-election violence is related to the incumbent's political platform or their performance in past elections. These results provide support for the notion that post-election violence is triggered by election fraud or by the failure of democratic ways of removing unpopular incumbents from office.
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“Crost, Benjamin; Felter, Joseph H.; Mansour, Hani; Rees, Daniel I.. 2020. Narrow Incumbent Victories and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9126. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33262 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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