Publication:
Changing Trade Patterns after Conflict Resolution in the South Caucasus

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dc.contributor.authorPolyakov, Evgeny
dc.date.accessioned2014-08-26T15:24:54Z
dc.date.available2014-08-26T15:24:54Z
dc.date.issued2001-04
dc.description.abstractSince the breakup of the USSR, the South Caucasus region has experienced a range of political conflicts, resulting in a number of hot and cold wars and border closures. The author analyzes the probably short-term impacts of peace in the region as a result of a resolution of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorney Karabakh region and an end to the associated trade blockades, with an emphasis on Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The conflict has seriously distorted trade flows in the region, disrupted transport routes, and stifled export and import opportunities for Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia has enjoyed higher-than-normal transit through its territory. Trade has stopped in gas (from Azerbaijan to Armenia) and electricity (from Armenia to Turkey). Transport tariffs are unusually high, aggravated by government-imposed transit fees (taxes). Over time, trade restrictions have eased and trading partners have found ways to conduct trade despite closed borders and blockades--but at a cost. Applying a gravity model to regional trade, the author concludes that South Caucasus countries trade enough with the CIS countries and politically friendly neighbors, but too little with the European Union, the United States, and hostile neighbors. Lifting the blockades would alleviate trade distortions and bring about short-term improvements, including: 1) More rational trade flows; 2) A resumption of (or an increase in) regional trade in major commodities such as energy; and 3) Lower prices or higher profit margins (or both) on some important consumption and production goods. With peace, Armenia could more than double its exports if Azerbaijani and Turkish markets open, which could reduce Armenia's trade deficit by a third to a half and increase its GDP by 30 percent. Improving transport routes would produce immediate savings and relieve pressure on domestic prices, especially for energy. Azerbaijan could increase its exports by $100 million, or 11 percent of 1999 levels, reducing its trade deficit by a quarter and raising its GDP by 5 percent. Its exports and imports would benefit from transport savings. Transit through Georgia might decline, but probably not by more than a quarter of the freight service surplus.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/04/1121145/changing-trade-patterns-after-conflict-resolution-south-caucasus
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/19673
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 2593
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAIR CARGO
dc.subjectAPPAREL
dc.subjectAVERAGE TARIFF
dc.subjectBALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subjectBUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
dc.subjectCHEMICAL INDUSTRY
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCONSIGNMENT
dc.subjectCONTAINERS
dc.subjectCOUNTRY OF ORIGIN
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectCUSTOMS
dc.subjectCUSTOMS CLEARANCE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCISE TAXES
dc.subjectEXPORT OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subjectEXPORT PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectEXPORT TAXES
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectFREE TRADE
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectFREIGHT
dc.subjectFREIGHT COSTS
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGRAVITY MODEL
dc.subjectHANDLING
dc.subjectIMPORT DUTIES
dc.subjectIMPORT TARIFF
dc.subjectIMPORT TARIFF STRUCTURE
dc.subjectIMPORT TARIFFS
dc.subjectINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectINDUSTRIAL RESTRUCTURING
dc.subjectINTERMEDIATE GOODS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectLIFTING
dc.subjectMARKET SHARE
dc.subjectMETALS
dc.subjectMUTUAL TRADE
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectNON-TARIFF BARRIERS
dc.subjectOIL
dc.subjectOIL EXPORTERS
dc.subjectOIL SECTOR
dc.subjectOPTIMIZATION
dc.subjectPRICE LEVELS
dc.subjectPRODUCTION GOODS
dc.subjectPROFIT MARGINS
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectQUOTAS
dc.subjectREGIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSHIPMENTS
dc.subjectTARIFF BARRIERS
dc.subjectTARIFF LEVELS
dc.subjectTARIFF REDUCTION
dc.subjectTARIFF SCHEDULE
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTRADE BARRIERS
dc.subjectTRADE DEFICIT
dc.subjectTRADE DEFICITS
dc.subjectTRADE FACILITATION
dc.subjectTRADE FLOWS
dc.subjectTRADE PATTERNS
dc.subjectTRADE REGIME
dc.subjectTRADE REGIMES
dc.subjectTRADE REGULATIONS
dc.subjectTRADE RESTRICTIONS
dc.subjectTRADE ROUTES
dc.subjectTRADE VOLUMES
dc.subjectTRANSIT
dc.subjectTRANSPORT COSTS
dc.subjectVALUATION
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectVALUE OF IMPORTS
dc.subjectWHOLESALE PRICES
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
dc.subjectWTO
dc.titleChanging Trade Patterns after Conflict Resolution in the South Caucasusen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaJobs
okr.date.disclosure2001-04-30
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/04/1121145/changing-trade-patterns-after-conflict-resolution-south-caucasus
okr.globalpracticeTransport and ICT
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.guid932181468749094960
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-2593
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000094946_0105050456527
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum1121145
okr.identifier.reportWPS2593
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2001/05/24/000094946_0105050456527/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryArmenia
okr.region.countryAzerbaijan
okr.themeEconomic management
okr.themeTrade and integration
okr.themeSocial dev/gender/inclusion :: Conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction
okr.topicTransport and Trade Logistics
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Free Trade
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Policy
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicIndustry::Common Carriers Industry
okr.topicEnvironmental Economics and Policies
okr.topicTransport
okr.unitOff of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
okr.volume1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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