Tajikistan - Economic and Distributional Impact of Climate Change

Abstract

Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of global climate change, as it already suffers from low agricultural productivity, water stress, and high losses from disasters. Public awareness of the multiple consequences of climate change is high, with possible impacts on health, natural disasters, and agriculture of greatest public concern. Climate change can potentially deepen poverty by lowering agricultural yields, raising food prices, and increasing the spread of water-borne diseases as well as the frequency and severity of disasters. Regions with greater dependence on agriculture and lower socioeconomic indicators, particularly the east mountain area of the Region of Republican Subordination (RRS), the Southern Sughd hills, and Khatlon hills and lowlands, are most vulnerable to climate change, with rural areas more at risk than urban locations. Faster socioeconomic development is the best tool for adaptation, since greater income diversification, improved health and education, and better access to services and infrastructure enhance the capacity of households, particularly the poor, for autonomous adaptation.