Publication: Long-Term Farming and Rural Demographic Trends
Loading...
Files in English
238 downloads
Published
2008
ISSN
Date
2012-06-26
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Two general characteristics of rural populations are studied: farming operations at the global level and global rural demographic trends. Analysis of farming at the global level shows that agricultural land is expanding in Latin America and Africa, while expansion limits have been reached in South Asia. Roughly 90% of the world�s farms are small, defined as smaller than 2 hectares, especially in high density areas. While small farms tend to focus on staple crops, it is predicted that liberalization of agricultural markets resulting from future rounds of the WTO will not encourage these farms toward diversification. With respect to demographic trends, a superficial analysis of gender inequality shows that in rural Sub- Saharan Africa, inequality in terms of economic wellbeing and gender is more acute. AIDS is contributing to diminish femininity, not to intensify it and ageing is not really a concern for least developed countries. High dependency ratios brought about by larger population of children act to reduce rural wellbeing in the developing world. Therefore, the supply of labor is not at risk even in countries that are hard hit by AIDS. A cross-country migration analysis finds that only in Latin America is migration helping upward convergence of rural communities. Education is identified as the main asset that enables migration. Communities that are not endowed with sufficient levels of human capital are being left behind.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Anríquez, Gustavo; Bonomi, Genny. 2008. Long-Term Farming and Rural Demographic Trends. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9156 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Russian Federation : The Demographic Transition and Its Implications for Adult Learning and Long-Term Care Policies(Washington, DC, 2011-01)This report describes the demographic transition in the Russian Federation and its implications for adult learning and long-term care policies. The population of Russia is aging and declining rapidly compared to other European nations. Russia's current age structure results from decades of complex demographic trends that have created a population structure with increasingly fewer young people. Women are having fewer children and are waiting longer to have children. Russia's mortality remains higher than in other developed societies. This high mortality is due to an unusually high incidence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries among adult men. Two key challenges face Russia. The first challenge is whether public expenditure on pensions and health care will become unsustainable as the size of the elderly population increases. The second challenge is whether declining population sizes will reduce the size of the labor force and hence reduce economic growth.Publication Long-Term Adaptation : Selecting Farm Types across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-04)Using economic data from more than 8,500 household surveys across 10 African countries, this paper examines whether the choice of farm type depends on the climate and agro-ecological zone of each farm. The paper also studies how farm type choice varies across farmers in each zone, using a multinomial logit choice model. Farmers are observed to choose from one of the following five types of farms: rainfed crop-only, irrigated crop-only, mixed rainfed (crop and livestock), mixed irrigated, and livestock-only farming. The authors compare current decisions against future decisions as if the only change were climate change. They focus on two climate scenarios from existing climate models: the Canadian Climate Centre scenario, which is hot and dry, and the Parallel Climate Model scenario, which is mild and wet. The results indicate that the change in farm types varies dramatically by climate scenario but also by agro-ecological zone. Policy makers must be careful to encourage the appropriate suite of measures to promote the most adapted farm type to each location.Publication Mexico : Technical Assistance for Long-term Program of Renewable Energy Development(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-02)The four studies in this technical paper series deal with complementary themes and propose solutions to the same problems that all of them perceive in the Mexican electricity sector - yet each paper looks at the problem from a different angle, and proposes different actions that must be taken in order to bring about a significant increase in Mexico's adoption of on-grid renewable energy. These papers take us from the general overview of the policy and institutional context, down to the specific case of a hypothetical wind farm. They review the current situation, identify concrete policy and institutional changes that are badly needed to stimulate the sector, look at how new paradigms for valuation can help us to better account for the value of renewable energy capacity, and finally perform a thorough economic impact analysis of the hypothetical addition of a large wind farm to Mexico's grid.Publication Latin America and the Caribbean's Long-Term Growth(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-09)This semiannual report examines short-run and long-run challenges for economic growth for the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The first part of this report provides an overview of recent economic developments, including an analysis of the sources of external risks for short-term economic activity in the region, and an in-depth look at whether LAC can leverage its deepening connections with China and turn it into an important (but not the only one) source of long-term growth. It also discusses policy response options for the short and long-term horizons. The second part of the report documents and analyzes the emergence, over the last decade, of a downward trend in education earnings premia (the additional earnings associated with a higher level of education), which is believed to reflect a re-balancing between higher supply and lower demand for skills.Publication Long-term Impacts of Global Food Crisis on Production Decisions : Evidence from Farm Investments in Indonesia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-05)Did the rise in food prices have a long-term impact on agricultural production? Using household-level panel data from seven provinces of Indonesia, this paper finds that the price shock created a forward-looking incentive to invest, which can dynamically enhance productivity in agriculture. It also finds that the impact of the price shock on investment behavior differs by initial wealth. In response to price increases, wealthy farmers invested more in productive assets, while poor farmers increased their financial savings as well as consumption. Price spikes relax liquidity constraints, which increases investments among the richer while do so savings and consumptions among the poor, possibly leading to diverging income inequality in the long run.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication Fixing the Foundation(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-09-20)Countries in middle-income East Asia and the Pacific were already experiencing serious learning deficits prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-related school disruptions have only made things worse. Learning poverty -- defined as the percentage of 10-year-olds who cannot read and understand an age-appropriate text -- is as high as 90 percent in several countries. Several large Southeast Asian countries consistently perform well below expectations on adolescent learning assessments. This report examines key factors affecting student learning in the region, with emphasis on the central role of teachers and teaching quality. It also analyzes the role education technologies, which came into widespread use during the pandemic, and examines the political economy of education reform. The report presents recommendations on how countries can strengthen teaching to improve learning and, in doing so, can enhance productivity, growth, and future development in the region.