Publication: The Recent Trade Performance Of Sub-Saharan African Countries : Cause for Hope or More of the Same?
Loading...
Date
2001-02
ISSN
Published
2001-02
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This study examines empirical information for major Sub-Saharan African countries and provides an analysis of whether recent trade and economic policy changes by some Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries enhanced their international competitiveness and improved their export performance. Specifically, it addresses the following points: (i) have recent exports from the Sub-Saharan African countries recently grown at a relatively faster pace and now come close to matching the average growth in world trade? (ii) Studies show Sub-Saharan African countries have been increasingly marginalized in world trade, as reflected in secular declines in their shares of this exchange and in shares of their major traditional exports (Ng and Yeats 1997). Does the available evidence indicate these trends have been reversed? (iii) Aggregate analyses of the composition of African countries' exports typically reveals a structure often held to be detrimental to industrialization and growth. African exports are typically concentrated in a relatively few primary commodities whose unstable prices (and export revenues) are thought to make development planning difficult. Does the available evidence indicate that shifts are occurring in the structure of exports toward products (like labor-intensive manufactures) that could play a more positive role in improving the prospects for industrialization and growth? (iv) Are positive micro-level changes occurring which are not reflected in aggregate trade statistics? Specifically, is the "revealed" comparative advantage of the SSA countries changing, has their competitive position improved (as reflected in changes in their market shares for traditional exports), or have they made progress in shifting the composition of exports up commodity processing chains? (v) Some studies of factors that influence the success or failure of efforts to promote industrialization and growth conclude a high level of intra-industry trade plays an important positive role. Related studies show that cross-country production sharing, which often involves a special type of intra-industry trade, assists participating countries to integrate into global and regional markets and may also act as a catalyst to industrialization and growth. Does the evidence suggest that the level of this trade has increased in African countries? (vi) Studies suggest there may be adverse consequences (like paying higher prices for imports and receiving lower prices for exports-see Hirschmann (1948), Avramovic (1979) or Yeats (1981) among others)-for countries whose trade is highly concentrated on a geographic basis. Does the available evidence suggest that the African countries have been more successful in establishing new trade ties and penetrating non-traditional markets? And (vii) finally, what evidence exists with regard to the importance of self-imposed government and commercial restrictions in the SSA countries? Are current trade and other economic other policies which affect the general business environment still sufficiently onerous so as to constitute a major "drag" on African exports and growth?
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Ng, Francis; Yetes, Alexander J.. 2001. The Recent Trade Performance Of Sub-Saharan African Countries : Cause for Hope or More of the Same?. Africa Region Findings & Good Practice Infobriefs; No. 176. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9824 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Export Profiles of Small Landlocked Countries : A Case Study Focusing on their Implications for Lesotho(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-06)World Bank demographic and country characteristic statistics identify 16 small landlocked countries that are similar to Lesotho. The authors attempt to determine what useful policy information can be derived from the recent trade performance of these "comparators." Among questions they pose are whether the trade profiles of the comparators suggest potentially promising export ventures for Lesotho, do they indicate directions for a geographic diversification of trade, or do they suggest products in which Lesotho might acquire a comparative advantage. The authors also use U.S. partner country statistics to evaluate Lesotho's export performance in this major market. The U.S. data indicate Lesotho lost competitive export shares for about three-quarters of its major clothing products during the late 1990s. The data show these losses were primarily to the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries in the Caribbean. Lesotho was competing on basically equal terms and did not fare well. But it is generally held that the most efficient clothing exporters are in the Far East and not Latin America. Lesotho's difficulties in competing with the latter have worrisome implications for its ability to compete with East Asian exporters when the Multifiber Arrangement is phased out. The comparative advantage profiles of the landlocked comparator countries suggest Lesotho's options for a greatly needed export diversification may be wider than is assumed. One or more of the comparator countries developed a comparative advantage in 110 four-digit SITC (non-clothing) manufactures which are generally labor-intensive in production. Many of these goods should also be suitable for production and export by Lesotho. International production sharing often involves the importation and further assembly of components in developing countries. This activity can significantly broaden the range of new products in which a country can diversify. Statistics show many landlocked comparator countries have moved into component assembly operations, and it appears this activity could contribute to Lesotho's export diversification and industrialization. But the quality problems associated with Lesotho's trade statistics makes it impossible to determine the extent to which local production sharing is occurring. A special effort is needed to tabulate reliable statistics on Lesotho's current involvement in this activity. Finally, the authors attempt to determine how the commercial policy environment in Lesotho compares with that in other countries. Policymakers previously had difficulty in addressing this issue, but several recent efforts to compile comprehensive cross-country indices of the quality of governance and commercial policies now provide relevant information. These statistics suggest domestic commercial policies make Lesotho relatively less attractive to foreign investment than many other developing countries. Less than 20 percent of all Latin American countries have a domestic commercial environment judged to be inferior to that in Lesotho, while the corresponding share for East Asia is under 30 percent. Overall, almost 70 percent of all developing countries appear to pursue commercial policies that make them as, or more, attractive to foreign investment than Lesotho.Publication Pathways to African Export Sustainability(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012-07-02)This report provides tentative leads toward such policy prescriptions, based on an overview of the empirical evidence. Chapter one sets the stage by putting Africa's export-survival performance into perspective and proposing a framework that will guide the interpretation of empirical evidence throughout the report. Chapter two covers country-level determinants of export sustainability at origin and destination, including the exporting country's business environment. Chapter three explores some of the firm-level evidence on what drives export sustainability, including uncertainty, incomplete contracts, learning, and networks. Finally, chapter four offers tentative policy implications. The main conclusions from this overview of the causes of Africa's low export sustainability should be taken with caution both because of the complexity of the issue and because of the very fragmentary evidence on which the overview is based. The author should be more cautious in drawing policy implications, as hasty policy prescriptions are the most common trap into which reports of this kind can fall. A first, solid conclusion is that the author needs substantial additional work on the nature and causes of low export survival rates in developing countries to determine the path to high export sustainability.Publication Nepal : Trade and Competitiveness Study(Washington, DC, 2003-10-22)This study analyzes Nepal's trade policies and performance, identifies constraints to increasing trade competitiveness, and recommends policy changes and technical assistance to improve trade performance. The study is timely, as Nepal's interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper of 2003 assigns a key role to trade and exports as drivers of broad-based economic growth-one of the four main pillars of its strategy. Key conclusions of this report suggest Nepal's trade policies are generally sound, and the country is competitive in a variety of products. However, these positive factors are tempered by constraints that make Nepal's productivity among the lowest in the region, create an inhospitable business climate, and discourage foreign direct investment-a key conduit for export-market access and technology transfer. The most critical constraints are: 1) delays in customs and transshipment to India's Kolkata port; 2) high infrastructure costs, especially transport and power; 3) a rigid, formal labor market; and, 4) weak policy and institutions in the areas of taxation, investment and trade promotion. But Nepal's prudent macroeconomic stance throughout most of the 1990s, helped increase its competitiveness. Low levels of domestic borrowing by the public sector, the nominal anchor of an exchange-rate peg with India, and a large jump in remittances by expatriate Nepalese labor have enabled Nepal to maintain macroeconomic stability. Notwithstanding, and despite liberalization and growth of trade in the 1990s, the study shows that competitiveness of Nepal's economy is low, as measured by firm-level surveys in manufacturing, farm yields, and aggregate productivity estimates. Labor productivity in manufacturing and agriculture are among the lowest in the region, while manufacturing unit labor costs are among the highest, even though Nepal has comparative advantage in a range of agriculture and manufacturing products. This study shows how three key factors contribute to low price competitiveness and productivity in Nepal's economy: a) inadequate mechanisms and incentives for firms to acquire new technology, b) weak infrastructure, and, c) an unfavorable business climate. Conclusions suggest major impacts of trade on the poor can come from switching to high value cash crops from subsistence agriculture. A key constraint to that is inadequate transportation infrastructure. Growth of transport can lead to welfare effects for the poor by enabling commercial crops and use more fertilizers by farmers. Transportation also has direct welcome effects through creation of employment and income-generating opportunities. To this end, transition from traditional subsistence agriculture toward higher-margin, tradable crops (such as spices, tea, and vegetables) can be promoted by increasing access to year-round irrigation, inputs, technology, and, most importantly, markets.Publication Ukraine's Trade Policy : A Strategy for Integration into Global Trade(Washington, DC, 2005)This publication identifies the key drivers of Ukraine's recent trade performance, assesses current trade policies, and proposes recommendations to strengthen the Ukraine's trade integration strategy. It also identifies core bottlenecks in the ongoing integration processes, including global and regional integration. The study concludes that the main obstacles to furthering Ukraine's trade integration are domestic, and relate to deficiencies in the business environment. Problems in customs administration, standardization, and administrative barriers for new entry require immediate attention. The report highlights specific policy issues that hamper World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, such as trade legislation, protection of intellectual property rights, government support for specific industries, and export restrictions. It also recommends improvements in the structure of Ukraine's import tariffs, reform of both the regime of free economic zones and mechanism of the value-added tax (VAT) refund, and investment in a major upgrade of government capacity for investment and export promotion. The report also draws attention to the importance of the post-WTO accession agenda for Ukraine. To take advantage of WTO membership, the Government will need to undertake significant institutional reforms to implement WTO regulatory rules in ways that facilitate integration into the world economy and provide benefits to private sector participants.Publication Africa's Silk Road : China and India's New Economic Frontier(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007)As illustrated in Africa's Silk Road: China and India's New Economic Frontier, the new South-South economic relations present real opportunities-as well as challenges-to African countries. They also highlight the need for complementary reforms by China and India to support more vigorous African development. In analyzing Africa's intensifying relationships with China and India, Africa's Silk Road examines the trends to date and considers the implications of these developments for the economic future of the African continent. The diagnosis cautions that the opportunities engendered by China and India's trade and investment with Africa will not necessarily be converted into growth and poverty reduction in the region. A critical finding of the study is that it is not just the quantity of these trade and investment flows that matters-it is also the quality of the overall commercial relationships underlying as well as shaping these flows. This paper contains the following headings: connecting two continents; performance and patterns of African-Asian trade and investment flows; challenges at the border - Africa and Asia's trade and investment policies; behind-the-border constraints on African-Asian trade and investment flows; between-the-border factors in African-Asian trade and investment; and investment-trade linkages in African-Asian commerce - scale, integration, and production networks.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Crime and Violence in Central America : A Development Challenge - Main Report(World Bank, 2011-01-01)Crime and violence are now a key development issue for Central American countries. In three nations El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras crime rates are among the top five in Latin America. This report argues that successful strategies require actions along multiple fronts, combining prevention and criminal justice reform, together with regional approaches in the areas of drug trafficking and firearms. It also argues that interventions should be evidence based, starting with a clear understanding of the risk factors involved and ending with a careful evaluation of how any planned action might affect future options. In addition, the design of national crime reduction plans and the establishment of national cross-sectoral crime commissions are important steps to coordinate the actions of different government branches, ease cross-sectoral collaboration and prioritize resource allocation. Of equal importance is the fact that national plans offer a vehicle for the involvement of civil society organizations, in which much of the expertise in violence prevention and rehabilitation resides. Prevention efforts need to be complemented by effective law enforcement. The required reforms are no longer primarily legislative in nature because all six countries have advanced toward more transparent adversarial criminal procedures. The second-generation reforms should instead help deliver on the promises of previous reforms by: (i) strengthening key institutions and improving the quality and timeliness of the services they provide to citizens; (ii) improving efficiency and effectiveness while respecting due process and human rights; (iii) ensuring accountability and addressing corruption; (iv) increasing inter-agency collaboration; and (v) improving access to justice, especially for poor and disenfranchised groups. Specific interventions reviewed in the report include: information systems and performance indicators as a prerequisite to improve inter-institutional coordination and information sharing mechanisms; an internal overhaul of court administration and case management to create rapid reaction, one-stop shops; the strengthening of entities that provide legal counseling to the poor and to women; and the promotion of alternative dispute-resolution mechanisms and the implementation of community policing programs.Publication The Mexican Social Protection System in Health(World Bank, Washington DC, 2013-01)With a population of 113 million and a per-capita Gross Domestic Product, or GDP of US$10,064 (current U.S. dollars), Mexico is one of the largest and highest-income countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The country has benefited from sustained economic growth during the last decade, which was temporarily interrupted by the financial and economic crisis. Real GDP is projected to grow 3.8 percent and 3.6 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively (International Monetary Fund, or IMF 2012). Despite this growth, poverty in the country remains high; with half of the population living below the national poverty line. The country is also highly heterogeneous, with large socioeconomic differences across states and across urban and rural areas. In 2010, while the extreme poverty ratio in the Federal District and the states of Colima and Nuevo Leon was below 3 percent, in Chiapas, Guerrero, and Oaxaca it was 25 percent or higher. These large regional differences are also found in other indicators of well-being, such as years of schooling, housing conditions, and access to social services. This case study assesses key features and achievements of the Social Protection System in Health (Sistema de Proteccion Social en Salud) in Mexico, and particularly of its main pillar, Popular Health Insurance (Seguro Popular, PHI). It analyzes the contribution of this policy to the establishment and implementation of universal health coverage in Mexico. In 2003, with the reform of the General Health Law, the PHI was institutionalized as a subsidized health insurance scheme open to the population not covered by the social security schemes. Today, the PHI covers all of its intended affiliates, about 52 million peoplePublication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Guide to the Debt Management Performance Assessment Tool(Washington, DC, 2008-02-05)The purpose of this document is to provide guidance and supplemental information to assist with country assessments of debt management performance, using the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) tool. The DeMPA is a methodology used for assessing public debt management performance through a comprehensive set of 15 performance indicators spanning the full range of government Debt Management (DeM) functions. It is based on the principles set out in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank guidelines for public debt management, initially published in 2001 and updated in 2003. It is modeled after the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) framework for performance measurement of public financial management. The DeMPA has been designed to be a user-friendly tool to undertake an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses in government DeM practices. This guide provides additional background and supporting information so that a no specialist in the area of debt management may undertake a country assessment effectively. The guide can be used by assessors in preparing for and undertaking an assessment. It is particularly useful for understanding the rationale for the inclusion of the indicators, the scoring methodology, and the list of supporting documents or evidence required, and the questions that could be asked for the assessment.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.