Publication: The Recent Trade Performance Of Sub-Saharan African Countries : Cause for Hope or More of the Same?
Date
2001-02
ISSN
Published
2001-02
Author(s)
Ng, Francis
Yetes, Alexander J.
Abstract
This study examines empirical
information for major Sub-Saharan African countries and
provides an analysis of whether recent trade and economic
policy changes by some Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries
enhanced their international competitiveness and improved
their export performance. Specifically, it addresses the
following points: (i) have recent exports from the
Sub-Saharan African countries recently grown at a relatively
faster pace and now come close to matching the average
growth in world trade? (ii) Studies show Sub-Saharan African
countries have been increasingly marginalized in world
trade, as reflected in secular declines in their shares of
this exchange and in shares of their major traditional
exports (Ng and Yeats 1997). Does the available evidence
indicate these trends have been reversed? (iii) Aggregate
analyses of the composition of African countries'
exports typically reveals a structure often held to be
detrimental to industrialization and growth. African exports
are typically concentrated in a relatively few primary
commodities whose unstable prices (and export revenues) are
thought to make development planning difficult. Does the
available evidence indicate that shifts are occurring in the
structure of exports toward products (like labor-intensive
manufactures) that could play a more positive role in
improving the prospects for industrialization and growth?
(iv) Are positive micro-level changes occurring which are
not reflected in aggregate trade statistics? Specifically,
is the "revealed" comparative advantage of the SSA
countries changing, has their competitive position improved
(as reflected in changes in their market shares for
traditional exports), or have they made progress in shifting
the composition of exports up commodity processing chains?
(v) Some studies of factors that influence the success or
failure of efforts to promote industrialization and growth
conclude a high level of intra-industry trade plays an
important positive role. Related studies show that
cross-country production sharing, which often involves a
special type of intra-industry trade, assists participating
countries to integrate into global and regional markets and
may also act as a catalyst to industrialization and growth.
Does the evidence suggest that the level of this trade has
increased in African countries? (vi) Studies suggest there
may be adverse consequences (like paying higher prices for
imports and receiving lower prices for exports-see
Hirschmann (1948), Avramovic (1979) or Yeats (1981) among
others)-for countries whose trade is highly concentrated on
a geographic basis. Does the available evidence suggest that
the African countries have been more successful in
establishing new trade ties and penetrating non-traditional
markets? And (vii) finally, what evidence exists with regard
to the importance of self-imposed government and commercial
restrictions in the SSA countries? Are current trade and
other economic other policies which affect the general
business environment still sufficiently onerous so as to
constitute a major "drag" on African exports and growth?
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Ng, Francis; Yetes, Alexander J.. 2001. The Recent Trade Performance Of Sub-Saharan African Countries : Cause for Hope or More of the Same?. Africa Region Findings & Good Practice Infobriefs; No. 176. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9824 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”