Publication:
What Lies Behind “Good” Analytical Work on Development ? Four Years of Knowledge Products at the World Bank

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.2 MB)
143 downloads
English Text (107.16 KB)
42 downloads
Published
2024-02-14
ISSN
Date
2024-02-20
Author(s)
Singh, Rucheta
Aslam, Aiza
Editor(s)
Abstract
The World Bank’s analytical work has a strong reputation, but its knowledge products are also perceived to be of varying quality and relevance, and the drivers of this heterogeneity are only partially understood. Building on previous evaluations, this paper adopts a production function approach to assess how budget resources, time to completion, technical skills, and institutional responsibilities affect the internal ratings and external visibility of different types of analytical tasks at the World Bank. To this effect, the paper first matches records from three unconnected electronic platforms — for internal documents, budget codes, and external publications — to assemble a comprehensive database of knowledge products and their key characteristics. With analytical documents as its unit of observation, the exercise shows that: (1) devoting more resources to analytical tasks leads to both better ratings and greater visibility; (2) both outcomes are systematically worse when a greater share of resources comes from trust funds; (3) they are also consistently worse for tasks that take longer to complete; (4) more academically oriented team leaders underperform on ratings and overperform on visibility, whereas technically solid but less stellar team leaders overperform on ratings; and (5) everything else equal, performance varies systematically with the nature of the unit in charge. The findings of the paper can be read as a cautionary note against knowledge management that is based on the counting of analytical tasks. Instead, the findings call for much stronger information systems on knowledge products, a better alignment of incentives for the units in charge, and regular evaluations in the spirit of this paper.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Rama, Martin; Singh, Rucheta; Aslam, Aiza. 2024. What Lies Behind “Good” Analytical Work on Development ? Four Years of Knowledge Products at the World Bank. Policy Research Working Paper; 10704. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41083
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Climate and Social Sustainability in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Contexts
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Cuesta Leiva, Jose Antonio; Huff, Connor
    Climate change is widely recognized as a driver of violent conflict, but its broader social effects remain less understood. Ignoring these dimensions risks a vicious cycle where climate policies might undermine socially just adaptation. Evidence is still limited on how climate shocks influence political participation, trust, or migration. This paper helps fill that gap by examining links between climate change, conflict, and social sustainability, with a focus on inclusion, resilience, cohesion, and legitimacy. Using secondary data from 2019–24, the study applies simple correlation-based methods to test three hypotheses on the nature, severity, and composition of these associations. The analysis combines multiple climate impact measures, new conflict classifications, recent social sustainability frameworks, and controls for population and geography. The results reveal strong correlations—not causation—between climate events and contexts of fragility, conflict, and violence. Climate impacts are most pronounced in both national and subnational conflict settings. The study also finds robust links between fragility, conflict, and violence and low levels of social sustainability, reflecting its role as both a driver and consequence of conflict. Some dimensions—such as violent events and insecurity—appear weaker in areas most affected by climate shocks. Two of the hypotheses are supported, and one remains inconclusive.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Kim, Galileu; Kumar, Tanu; Ramalho, Rita; Russell, Stuart
    State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.
  • Publication
    South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08) Baez, Javier E.; Kshirsagar, Varun
    Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.
  • Publication
    Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Adarov, Amat; Kose, M. Ayhan; Vorisek, Dana
    The world faces a pressing challenge to meet key development objectives amid slowing growth and rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. With the number of job seekers rising rapidly, infrastructure shortfalls continuing to be large, and climate costs mounting, the case for a significant investment push has never been stronger. Yet the capacity to respond in many emerging markets and developing economies has eroded. Since the global financial crisis, investment growth has slowed to about half its pace in the 2000s, with both public and private investment weakening. Foreign direct investment inflows—a critical source of capital, technology, and managerial know-how—have also fallen sharply and become increasingly concentrated, leaving low-income countries with only a marginal share. The risks of further retrenchment are significant, as trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and elevated debt levels continue to weigh on investment. Reigniting momentum will require ambitious domestic reforms to strengthen institutions, rebuild macro-fiscal stability, and deepen trade and investment integration—the foundations of a supportive business climate. At the same time, international cooperation is indispensable. A renewed commitment to a predictable system of cross-border trade and investment flows, combined with scaled-up financial support and sustained technical assistance, is essential to help emerging markets and developing economies—especially low-income countries and economies in fragile and conflict situations—bridge financing gaps and implement the domestic reforms needed to restore investment as an engine of growth, jobs, and development.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Scaling-Up the Impact of Good Practices in Rural Development : A Working Paper to Support Implementation of the World Bank’s Rural Development Strategy
    (Washington, DC, 2003-06) World Bank
    A key thrust in the implementation of the Bank's new rural development strategy is identifying and "scaling-up good practice investments and innovations in rural development." Historically, successful World Bank projects have been one-time investments without strategies for leveraging projects to a larger scale or to broader coverage to increase efficiency and developmental impact in a country or region. The Bank believes that scaling-up good practices must become an integral part of national rural development strategies to reduce rural poverty and support broad-based rural development. This working paper, written in support of the Bank's rural development strategy, is intended to contribute to the development of a framework for thinking about scaling-up. The paper begins with a review of the literature on scaling-up in rural development and other contexts to develop an understanding of basic concepts and terms. Drawing from the literature review and interviews, the authors develop a working definition of the term scaling-up and a provisional framework for analyzing experiences of scaling-up in rural development. Then, to evaluate the provisional framework, the authors apply it to a few well-documented case studies of rapid scaling-up. The final sections of the paper draw lessons from the application of the framework to the case studies and identify key areas for moving forward to support scaling-up impacts in rural development.
  • Publication
    What Difference Does Good Monitoring and Evaluation Make to World Bank Project Performance?
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06) Raimondo, Estelle
    For more than 20 years, the development community has claimed that monitoring and evaluation helps projects achieve their objectives. This study uses data from 1,300 World Bank projects evaluated between 2008 and 2014 to investigate this suggested link between the quality of monitoring and evaluation and project performance. The propensity score matching results indicate that the quality of monitoring and evaluation is significantly and positively associated with project outcome as institutionally measured at the World Bank. This positive relationship holds when controlling for project manager identity, and is robust to various specification choices. Through a systematic text analysis of the narrative produced by the Independent Evaluation Group to justify its monitoring and evaluation quality rating, the study shows that there are common markers of good quality monitoring and evaluation, such as: clear institutional setup and division of labor around monitoring and evaluation activities; simple monitoring and evaluation framework that is well aligned with clients' existing monitoring and evaluation systems; good integration with operational tasks; and a system that can generate regular and timely reporting, and that is used during and after lending.
  • Publication
    The World Bank’s Publication Record
    (2010-07-01) Ravallion, Martin; Wagstaff, Adam
    The World Bank has produced a huge volume of books and papers on development -- 20,000 publications spanning decades, but growing appreciably since 1990. This paper finds evidence that many of these publications have influenced development thinking, as indicated by the citations found using Google Scholar and in bibliographic data bases. However, the authors also find that a non-negligible share of the Bank's publications have received no citations, suggesting that they have had little scholarly influence, though they may well have had influence on non-academic audiences. Individually-authored journal articles have been the main channel for scholarly influence. The volume of the Bank's research output on development is greater than that of any of the comparator institutions identified, including other international agencies and the top universities in economics. The bibliometric indicators of the quality and influence of the Bank's portfolio of scholarly publications are on a par with, or better than, most of the top universities.
  • Publication
    Using Knowledge to Improve Development Effectiveness : An Evaluation of World Bank Economic and Sector Work and Technical Assistance, 2000-2006
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2008) Independent Evaluation Group
    In 1996, the World Bank committed itself to becoming a 'global knowledge bank,' using knowledge to improve the development effectiveness of its work. In fiscal 2008, the Bank reiterated its focus on knowledge and learning, naming it as one of its six strategic directions. This evaluation focuses on two of the analytical and advisory activities through which the Bank provides knowledge to its client countries: economic and sector work (ESW) and nonlending technical assistance (TA). This evaluation found that the majority of ESW and TA met their objectives at least to an average extent during fiscal 2000-06, although there were substantial differences across countries and tasks. ESW and TA of higher technical quality were clearly more effective in meeting their objectives. Close collaboration with clients during the process mattered for effectiveness, whether clients actually produced part of the task or not. Sustained follow-up after the completion of the tasks was important for effectiveness. Whether clients requested the tasks did not matter for effectiveness, although all tasks needed to be tailored to client needs and interests to be effective. ESW and TA were less effective in countries where government capacity was lower. Clients in middle-income countries prefer nonlending to lending services, and clients in all countries prefer TA over ESW.
  • Publication
    Thirty Years of World Bank Shelter Lending : What Have We Learned?
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006) Buckley, Robert M.; Kalarickal, Jerry
    By reviewing the Bank's experience with shelter lending, this paper seeks to address the question of whether the Bank has helped developing countries deal with the inevitable problems that arise with urbanization, particularly problems with the provision of shelter. It reviews the Bank's performance, with a focus on identifying lessons learned so that current demands can be more effectively addressed. In contrast to earlier studies, however, this review focuses more on how the changing policy environment has affected the structure of Bank assistance, rather than on how Bank assistance has affected the policy environment. This perspective is taken for two reasons. First, in recent years, benevolent changes in the policy environment are helping to ensure that better shelter conditions are provided to the poor in rapidly growing cities. However, despite the generally improved environment, some serious and often long-standing obstacles are impeding and, in some places, preventing progress. The emphasis on the policy environment allows the Bank to give greater weight to these constraints. Second, Bank shelter assistance is no longer an experimental program, as it was when the first review took place. Shelter assistance is now a mature sector, with 278 loans (including International Finance Corporation [IFC] loans). As a result, this review devotes considerably more attention to the outcomes of the Bank's shelter projects than did the earlier studies. Conclusions about shelter lending are by no means completely positive, however. In particular, while the nature of the lending has evolved to embrace the private sector more fully, it has also moved away from the poverty orientation that was for many years the core focus. If the Bank is to make a meaningful contribution to the Millennium Development Goal of affecting the lives of 100 million slum dwellers, this trend will have to change.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Jobs in a Changing Climate: Insights from World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports Covering 93 Economies
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05) World Bank
    The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) provide a crosscutting look at how countries’ development prospects, and the job opportunities they offer to their people, can be threatened by climate impacts and supported by climate policies. Climate change and policies affect jobs through impacts on productivity, energy and material efficiency, and physical, human, and natural capital. They can also transform employment opportunities, especially through complementary measures that help workers and firms adapt to and benefit from new technologies and production practices. Prepared by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), CCDRs integrate country perspectives, climate science and economic modeling, private sector information, and policy analysis to assess how countries can successfully grow and develop their economies and create jobs despite increasing climate risks and while achieving their climate objectives and commitments. Each CCDR starts from the country’s development priorities, opportunities, and challenges, and is developed in close consultation with governments, businesses, and civil society, ensuring the recommendations reflect national priorities. By combining evidence on adaptation, resilience, and emissions pathways, CCDRs highlight where climate action can reinforce development and job creation, and where targeted policies are needed to manage risks and smooth labor market transitions. Taken together, these elements can help create local jobs, ensure economic transitions are just and inclusive, and equip workers and firms to navigate the disruptions and opportunities of a changing climate and changing technologies.
  • Publication
    Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03) World Bank Group
    This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.
  • Publication
    Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23) World Bank Group
    Guinea-Bissau is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, with the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa (US3,874 dollars per capita), which could be leveraged for sustainable and resilient growth. However, Guinea-Bissau faces significant development hurdles, such as high poverty rates, political instability, and economic challenges, including an over-reliance on cashew nuts. Rural poverty has increased, and the nation's infrastructure, education, and health care systems are underdeveloped. Climate change poses a severe threat, potentially impacting agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. Without adaptation, it could lead to a significant cut in real GDP per capita (minus 7.3 percent by 2050) and increase in poverty (with up to over 200,000 additional poor by 2050, that is, 5 percent of the expected population, in the worst scenario). The country's low greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise, mainly due to agriculture and land-use changes, with deforestation being a major contributing factor. Although Guinea-Bissau is a low emitter, it has high mitigation ambitions, targeting a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The Nationally Determined Contribution outlines significant climate actions, with initiatives focused on forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and community development. However, the country's political instability, institutional weaknesses, and limited financial resources pose challenges to implementing these climate commitments, which depend heavily on external funding. The financial sector's underdevelopment and vulnerability to external shocks limit its ability to support green investments, though reforms could enhance resilience. Guinea-Bissau must consider its climate financing as development financing and vice-versa, engage the private sector, and integrate climate goals with national development plans to ensure a sustainable future. Concessional climate financing is vital due to the underdeveloped financial sector and the government’s limited borrowing capacity. Addressing Guinea-Bissau's vulnerability to climate change and its structural issues requires a cohesive approach that integrates development and climate strategies. This could involve improving governance, diversifying the economy, protecting natural capital, developing human capital, and investing in sustainable agriculture and infrastructure. The transition to a more sustainable and inclusive development pathway that supports economic growth is possible, but requires focusing on key strategic sectors, enhancing institutional capacity, and creating the conditions to mobilize finance. As a highly vulnerable country, there are myriad needs in the different sectors; however, to be more efficient and effective, Guinea-Bissau should prioritize actions in a few sectors, especially actions on biodiversity, agriculture, and social protection. Low carbon development, especially in energy and forestry sectors, could provide cost-efficient solutions and attract climate finance, including from the private sector, which will support the overall development agenda.
  • Publication
    Mongolia Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-22) World Bank Group
    Mongolia’s development prospects are uniquely challenged by both the impacts of climate change and the global shift toward a low-carbon economy. The country’s efforts toward decarbonization pose significant challenges given the structurally high-emission intensity of its economy. While challenging, climate action also presents Mongolia with opportunities to achieve important development benefits. The effects of climate risks and the shift away from coal will have diverse impacts across different regions, communities, and socioeconomic levels. The report assesses the critical interconnections between Mongolia’s development ambitions and climate change action and identifies ways to transition to a more economically diversified, inclusive, and resilient development path. It highlights key climate and transition risks affecting Mongolia’s future development and presents a pathway to enhance climate mitigation and adaptation. The report also makes a case for strengthening policies to enhance resilience to climate change and ensure a just transition, particularly for the most vulnerable. The report is structured as follows: section 1 gives introduction. Section 2 delves into the linkages between development and climate in Mongolia and presents model-based findings on the economic and poverty impacts of climate change under different scenarios. Section 3 covers four in-depth sectoral analyses. The first two mainly focus on adaptation to climate change in the agriculture and water sectors. The third considers prospects for the extraction sector, while the fourth sectoral analysis focuses on decarbonizing power and heat generation. Section 4 shifts the focus to how the government can boost resilience for climate-vulnerable populations. Section 5 outlines options for mobilizing private and public financing and private investments to support the green transition. Section 6 examines the existing institutional and governance structure for climate action and presents recommendations to improve its effectiveness, and section 7 concludes with a framework for prioritizing the policy actions outlined in this report.
  • Publication
    Comoros Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-18) World Bank Group
    The Union of the Comoros (The Comoros) has significant vulnerability to climate change-related risks but has considerable opportunities to strengthen preparedness and resilience against these challenges. According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, the Comoros is the 29th-most vulnerable country to climate change and the 163rd most ready to adapt (out of 191). The Comoros archipelago is exposed to many natural hazards that adversely affect the country’s natural capital, people, and physical infrastructure. In 2014, the economic cost of climate-related disasters was estimated at 5.7 million dollars annually, equivalent to 9.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Between 2018 and 2023, as many as 11 tropical depressions or cyclones impacted the country, with Cyclone Kenneth causing the greatest damage, equivalent to 14 percent of GDP, resulting in total economic growth falling from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 1.9 percent in 2019. More than 345,000 people (40 percent of the population) were affected by the cyclone, with 185,000 people experiencing severe impacts and 12,000 people displaced. However, there is an opportunity for the country to grow more robust and shock-responsive, and to establish pre-positioned funding mechanisms to enhance future crisis response efforts. For the Comoros, adaptation and climate-resilient development are the key climate change focus areas, with the country projected to face 836 million dollars 2050 in additional costs due to climate-related impacts. Current plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change in the Comoros include efforts to improve water management, strengthen coastal protection, and develop climate-smart agriculture practices. Given the country’s reliance on its natural resource base for economic growth and mobility, protection of these resources from climate change will be essential for promoting resilient growth and development. In addition to growing the adaptive capacity of the country’s natural resource sectors, strategic economic diversification will be important to help minimize future climate impacts, and development activities will need to be undertaken in such a way as to attract low-carbon co-benefits. The Union of the Comoros is committed to addressing climate change through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and national priorities. The country’s NDC (which was revised in 2021 for a ten-year horizon) sets ambitious targets, with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 23 percent by 2030. The country also plans to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in its energy portfolio, reaching 33 MW by 2030. This will not only promote low-carbon development but also reduce the country’s dependency on imported oil and coal, which currently make up 95 percent of the energy mix. Additionally, the Comoros has declared its intention to increase CO2 removals by 47 percent by 2030, compared to BAU.