Publication: Debt in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Implications, and Remedies
Loading...
Files in English
3,073 downloads
Published
2019-03
ISSN
Date
2019-03-27
Editor(s)
Abstract
Debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries have increased substantially in recent years. Since 2013, median government debt has risen by about 20 percentage points of gross domestic product and increasingly comes from non-concessional and private sources. As a result, in most low-income countries, interest payments are absorbing an increasing proportion of government revenues. The majority of low-income countries would be hard hit by a sudden weakening in trade or global financial conditions given high levels of external debt, lack of fiscal space, low foreign currency reserves, and undiversified exports. A proactive effort to identify and reduce debt-related vulnerabilities is a priority for many low-income countries. Policy makers should focus on mobilizing domestic resources, improving debt transparency, and strengthening debt management practices. These efforts should be complemented by measures to strengthen fiscal frameworks, improve the efficiency of public expenditures and public investment management, and develop domestic financial systems.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Essl, Sebastian; Kilic Celik, Sinem; Kirby, Patrick; Proite, Andre. 2019. Debt in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Implications, and Remedies. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 8794. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31453 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Climate and Social Sustainability in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Contexts(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)Climate change is widely recognized as a driver of violent conflict, but its broader social effects remain less understood. Ignoring these dimensions risks a vicious cycle where climate policies might undermine socially just adaptation. Evidence is still limited on how climate shocks influence political participation, trust, or migration. This paper helps fill that gap by examining links between climate change, conflict, and social sustainability, with a focus on inclusion, resilience, cohesion, and legitimacy. Using secondary data from 2019–24, the study applies simple correlation-based methods to test three hypotheses on the nature, severity, and composition of these associations. The analysis combines multiple climate impact measures, new conflict classifications, recent social sustainability frameworks, and controls for population and geography. The results reveal strong correlations—not causation—between climate events and contexts of fragility, conflict, and violence. Climate impacts are most pronounced in both national and subnational conflict settings. The study also finds robust links between fragility, conflict, and violence and low levels of social sustainability, reflecting its role as both a driver and consequence of conflict. Some dimensions—such as violent events and insecurity—appear weaker in areas most affected by climate shocks. Two of the hypotheses are supported, and one remains inconclusive.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.Publication South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08)Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.Publication Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)The world faces a pressing challenge to meet key development objectives amid slowing growth and rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. With the number of job seekers rising rapidly, infrastructure shortfalls continuing to be large, and climate costs mounting, the case for a significant investment push has never been stronger. Yet the capacity to respond in many emerging markets and developing economies has eroded. Since the global financial crisis, investment growth has slowed to about half its pace in the 2000s, with both public and private investment weakening. Foreign direct investment inflows—a critical source of capital, technology, and managerial know-how—have also fallen sharply and become increasingly concentrated, leaving low-income countries with only a marginal share. The risks of further retrenchment are significant, as trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and elevated debt levels continue to weigh on investment. Reigniting momentum will require ambitious domestic reforms to strengthen institutions, rebuild macro-fiscal stability, and deepen trade and investment integration—the foundations of a supportive business climate. At the same time, international cooperation is indispensable. A renewed commitment to a predictable system of cross-border trade and investment flows, combined with scaled-up financial support and sustained technical assistance, is essential to help emerging markets and developing economies—especially low-income countries and economies in fragile and conflict situations—bridge financing gaps and implement the domestic reforms needed to restore investment as an engine of growth, jobs, and development.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Low-Income Countries’ Access to Private Debt Markets(2009-01-01)Private debt flows to developing countries surged to record levels over the period 2003-07. A few low-income countries have gained access to the international bond market but the bulk of the flows have continued to go to just a few large middle-income countries. Most low-income countries still heavily depend on concessional loans and grants from the official sector to meet their financing needs. The paper provides an overview of low-income countries' access to cross-border bank lending and bond issuance in the international market over the past few decades. It highlights some stylized facts that characterize salient features of low-income countries' experience in external borrowing from the private sector and discusses the various factors that influence governments' and corporations' decisions to seek external financing along with creditors' decisions to provide the financing. The paper concludes by assessing the prospects for low-income countries' access to private debt markets over the medium term.Publication Domestic Public Debt in Low-Income Countries : Trends and Structure(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-02)This paper introduces a new data set on the stock and structure of domestic debt in 36 low-income countries over the period 1971-2011. It characterizes the recent trends regarding the do-mestic public debt of low-income countries and explores the relevance of different arguments put forward on the benefits and costs of government borrowing in local public debt markets. The main stylized fact emerging from the data is the increase in domestic government debt since 1996. It is also observed that poor countries have been able to increase the share of long-term in-struments over time and that maturity lengthening went together with a decrease in borrowing costs. However, the concentration of the investor base, mainly dominated by commercial banks and the central bank, may crowd out lending to the private sector.Publication Linking Fiscal Policy and Growth in PER Reports : An Operational Framework for Low-Income Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-03)This note describes a framework for linking fiscal policy and growth issues in low-income countries. The framework has been developed in the context of a recently, completed Public Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability Review (PEMFAR) report in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region. The note describes first the framework and then illustrates its application to fiscal reform and growth prospects in the context of Haiti. The note concludes by laying out an agenda for developing this framework further, ideally to facilitate use of this framework in preparing more Public Expenditure Reviews (PERs) and elaborating medium-term budget frameworks.Publication A Toolkit for the Evaluation of Financial Capability Programs in Low-, and Middle-Income Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013)When resources are scarce and social safety nets are weak, households' ability to manage income and assets wisely may be an important determinant of economic security. However, many open questions remain about how households in low and middle-income countries gain and exercise financial capability, and the best ways for governments and the private and nonprofit sector to help increase this capability. With the exception of a small but important number of studies that have recently been completed or are currently under way, robust evidence regarding the efficacy of financial capability interventions is relatively sparse compared to the level of interest and programmatic activity. One reason for this is a lack of systematic evaluation. The toolkit draws from past experience and the experience of the Russia Financial Literacy and Education Trust Fund pilot projects to provide concrete and tangible examples for the reader that illustrate the specific circumstances and challenges in this field. This toolkit is designed for researchers who are interested in conducting an evaluation of a financial capability program and for policy makers and practitioners interested in commissioning an evaluation. It will also be useful to evaluation researchers who want to brush up on a research technique they are less familiar with or who are new to the area of financial capability and financial education, particularly in Low, and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC). This toolkit is intended to be a practical, hands-on guide to designing, conducting, and analyzing financial capability evaluations, with a focus on doing so in LMICs. The toolkit covers a wide range of material on how to design, conduct and analyze evaluations, material that is spread out over the 13 chapters that follow. The chapters are contained within four overarching parts: setting the stage for monitoring and evaluation (M&E): understanding the M&E process and concepts (chapters 2-3); conducting M&E for financial capability programs (chapters 4-7); collecting and analyzing M&E Data for Financial Capability Programs (chapters 8-10); and other Issues in conducting M&E for financial capability programs (chapters 11-14).Publication The Composition of Public Expenditure and Growth : A Small-Scale Intertemporal Model for Low-Income Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-12)This paper presents a small-scale intertemporal model of endogenous growth that accounts for the composition of public expenditure and externalities associated with public capital. Government spending is disaggregated into various components, including maintenance, security, and investment in education, health, and core infrastructure. After studying its long-run properties, the model is calibrated for Haiti, using country-specific information as well as parameter estimates from the literature. A variety of policy experiments are then reported, including a reallocation of spending aimed at creating fiscal space to promote public investment; an improvement in fiscal management that leads to a reduction in tax collection costs; higher spending on security; and a composite fiscal package.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Drivers of Sustainable Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction in Central America : Honduras Case Study, Volume 1. Executive Summary and Main Text(Washington, DC, 2004-12-31)This regional study encompasses three Central American countries: Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Honduras. The focus of this report is Honduras. The objective of the study is to understand how broad-based economic growth can be stimulated and sustained in rural Central America. The study identifies "drivers" of sustainable rural growth and poverty reduction. Drivers are defined as the assets and combinations of assets needed by different types of households in different geographical areas, to take advantage of economic opportunities, and improve their well-being over time. The study examines the relative contributions of these assets, and seeks to identify the combinations of productive, social, and location-specific assets that matter most to raise incomes, and take advantage of prospects for poverty-reducing growth. It adopts an asset-based conceptual approach, where assets are defined to include natural, physical, financial, human, social, political, institutional, and location-specific assets, and, focuses on how households deploy their assets within the context of policies, institutions, and risks to generate a set of opportunities. The report further analyzes the quantity, quality, and productivity of assets needed by households in different geographical areas, to exercise their potential for generating long-term growth and improving well-being. Findings indicate that while there are well-defined areas of higher economic opportunity, given their underlying agricultural potential, relatively good access to infrastructure, and high population densities, poverty is widespread, and deep in rural Honduras, particularly in hillside areas. And, although agriculture should form an integral part of the rural growth strategy in hillside areas, despite its limited potential, agriculture alone cannot solve the rural poverty problem, yet, those remaining in the sector need to be more efficient, productive and competitive. It is recommended to move from geographically untargeted investments in single assets, to a more integrated and geographically based approach of asset enhancement with proper complementarities, such as land access and security, technical assistance provision, health and education services, and strong local level institutions,Publication Political Economy of Distortions to Agricultural Incentives(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-05)During the 1960s and 1970s most developing countries imposed anti-agricultural policies, while many high-income countries restricted agricultural imports and subsidized their farmers. Both sets of policies inhibited economic growth and poverty alleviation in developing countries, while doing little to assist small farmers in high-income countries. Since the 1980s, however, many developing countries began to reduce the anti-agricultural bias of sectoral policies, and from the early 1990s the European Union began to move away from price supports to more-direct forms of farm income payments. This paper summarizes a forthcoming book that seeks to explain this evolving pattern of distortions to incentives conceptually and econometrically by making use of new political economy theory and a new globally comprehensive and consistent set of estimates of the changing extent of annual distortions over the past half-century. The distortion estimates involve more than 70 products that cover around 70 percent of the value of agricultural output in each of 75 countries that together account for over 90 percent of the global economy, and they expose the contribution of the various policy instruments (both farm and non-farm) to the net distortion to farmer incentives. Such a widespread coverage of countries, products, years and policy instruments has allowed this collection of studies to test a wide range of hypotheses suggested by the new political economy literature, including the importance of institutions. As a set it sheds much new light on the underlying forces that have affected incentives facing farmers in the course of national and global economic and political development, and hence on how those distortions might change in the future - or be changed by concerted actions to offset political pressures from traditionally powerful vested interests.Publication International Debt Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-12-13)The International Debt Report (IDR) is a longstanding annual publication of the World Bank featuring external debt statistics and analysis for the 122 countries that report to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System. IDR 2023 is the 50th annual edition and includes (1) analyses of external debt stocks and flows as of end-2022 for these countries; (2) the macroeconomic and debt outlook for 2023 and beyond; (3) a focus on improved public debt transparency and the quality of debt reporting; (4) a discussion of the need for innovative approaches to debt management; (5) a commentary on how the International Debt Statistics database serves as an indispensable resource for researchers and policy makers; and (6) a one-page snapshot of relevant debt indicators and summary of debt stocks and flows for six years (2010 and 2018–22) for each country, plus global income group and regional aggregates. Unique in its coverage of the important trends and issues fundamental to the financing of low- and middle-income countries, IDR 2023 is an indispensable resource for governments, economists, investors, financial consultants, academics, bankers, and the entire development community. For more information on IDR 2023 and related products, please visit the World Bank’s Debt Statistics website at www.worldbank.org/debtstatistics .Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication What Is a Civil War? A Critical Review of Its Definition and (Econometric) Consequences(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2013-08-01)We argue that the academic literature, both qualitative and quantitative, has mislabeled most episodes of large-scale violence in Africa as civil wars; these episodes better fit our concept of regional war complexes. Our paper seeks to highlight the fundamental flaws in the conception of civil war in the econometric literature and their implications for econometric specification and estimation, problems that this literature is inherently incapable of rectifying. We advocate the comparative study of regional war complexes in Africa based on historical narratives.