Publication: Mobility and Pathways to the Middle Class in Nepal
Loading...
Date
2016-09
ISSN
Published
2016-09
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper introduces a variety of concepts and methods to examine living standards improvements in Nepal in a dynamic perspective. Using data from three rounds of Nepal Living Standards Surveys conducted in the past two decades, together with data from a nationally representative survey that was implemented in 2014 specifically to collect information on social and economic mobility, the paper presents novel statistics on the extent of inter- and intra-generational mobility in Nepal. The findings suggest that there has been appreciable upward mobility in education; that is, Nepalis today are increasingly more likely to be better educated than their parents. However, inter-generational mobility of occupations has been much more muted, with 47 percent of Nepal today remaining in the same occupation as their parents. Upward mobility is higher for younger cohorts and for individuals who move from their rural areas of birth to an urban area. There are also significant differences in mobility by social groups, with Dalits and Terai caste groups having lower upward mobility odds. Examining mobility within generations using synthetic panel techniques, the paper finds that: (a) for every two people who escape poverty, one slides back, suggesting significant churning around the poverty line; (b) a large fraction of those who have escaped poverty remain vulnerable to falling back, with an overall vulnerable population of 45 percent; and (c) the share of the middle class—defined as those with sufficiently low likelihood of falling back into poverty—has increased steadily over the past two decades, reaching 22 percent in 2010–11. However, triangulating subjective well-being data from Gallup, it appears that a majority of even those who constitute the middle class are fundamentally insecure about their economic futures. The prevalence of a large vulnerable population and a nascent, growing but struggling middle class represents a key challenge to consolidating recent gains in moving people out of poverty.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Shidiq, Akhmad Rizal; Tiwari, Sailesh; Balcazar, Carlos Felipe. 2016. Mobility and Pathways to the Middle Class in Nepal. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7824. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25135 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Dynamic, High-Resolution Wealth Measurement in Data-Scarce Environments(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-06)Accurate and comprehensive measurement of household livelihoods is critical for monitoring progress toward poverty alleviation and targeting social assistance programs for those who most need it. However, the high cost of traditional data collection has historically made comprehensive measurement a difficult task. This paper evaluates alternative satellite-based deep learning approaches using detailed household census extracts from four African countries to accelerate progress toward comprehensive, fine-scale, and dynamic measurement of asset wealth at scale. The results indicate that transformer architectures solve multiple open measurement problems, by providing the most accurate measurement of local-level variation in household asset wealth across countries and cities, as well as changes in household asset wealth over time. Experiments that artificially restrict data availability show the model’s ability to achieve high performance with limited data. The proposed approach demonstrates the promise of combining satellite imagery, publicly available geo-features, and new deep learning architectures for hyperlocal and dynamic measurement of wealth in data-scarce environments.Publication Firm-Level Climate Change Adaptation(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-10)Are firms adapting to climate change? This paper studies this question by combining geocoded World Bank Enterprise Survey data with spatially granular weather data to estimate temperature response functions for nearly 160,000 firms in 134 countries over a 15-year period. Our results show that market imperfections in low- and middle-income countries constrain firms’ ability to adapt. Small and medium-size firms in low- and low-middle income countries are most vulnerable, with revenues declining by 12 percent in years with temperatures 0.5◦C above historical averages. The impact is equally strong for manufacturing and services firms and result from declines in labor productivity and wages. Heat-sensitive sectors and less resilient firms are more severely affected, reinforcing the causal interpretation. Unique firm-level information on policy constraints including limited financing, burdensome regulations, and unsafe conditions suggest that such factors raise adaptation costs, undermining economic resilience to climate change.Publication Beyond the AI Divide(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-24)This paper examines global disparities in artificial intelligence preparedness, using the 2023 Artificial Intelligence Preparedness Index developed by the International Monetary Fund alongside the multidimensional Economic Complexity Index. The proposed methodology identifies both global and local overperformers by comparing actual artificial intelligence readiness scores to predictions based on economic complexity, offering a comprehensive assessment of national artificial intelligence capabilities. The findings highlight the varying significance of regulation and ethics frameworks, digital infrastructure, as well as human capital and labor market development in driving artificial intelligence overperformance across different income levels. Through case studies, including Singapore, Northern Europe, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Ghana, Rwanda, and emerging demographic giants like China and India, the analysis illustrates how even resource-constrained nations can achieve substantial artificial intelligence advancements through strategic investments and coherent policies. The study underscores the need for offering actionable insights to foster peer learning and knowledge-sharing among countries. It concludes with recommendations for improving artificial intelligence preparedness metrics and calls for future research to incorporate cognitive and cultural dimensions into readiness frameworks.Publication Indigenous peoples, land and conflict in Mindanao, Philippines(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-02-12)This article explores the links between conflict, land and indigenous peoples in several regions of Mindano, the Philippines, notorious for their levels of poverty and conflict. The analysis takes advantage of the unprecedented concurrence of data from the most recent, 2020, census; an independent conflict data monitor for Mindanao; and administrative sources on ancestral land titling for indigenous peoples in the Philippines. While evidence elsewhere compellingly links land titling with conflict reduction, a more nuanced story emerges in the Philippines. Conflicts, including land- and resource-related conflicts, are generally less likely in districts (barangays) with higher shares of indigenous peoples. Ancestral domain areas also have a lower likelihood for general conflict but a higher likelihood for land-related conflict. Ancestral domains titling does not automatically solve land-related conflicts. When administrative delays take place (from cumbersome bureaucratic processes, insufficient resources and weak institutional capacity), titling processes may lead to sustained, rather than decreased, conflict.Publication Who on Earth Is Using Generative AI ?(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-22)Leveraging unconventional data, including website traffic data and Google Trends, this paper unveils the real-time usage patterns of generative artificial intelligence tools by individuals across countries. The paper also examines country-level factors driving the uptake and early impacts of generative artificial intelligence on online activities. As of March 2024, the top 40 generative artificial intelligence tools attract nearly 3 billion visits per month from hundreds of millions of users. ChatGPT alone commanded 82.5 percent of the traffic, yet reaching only one-eightieth of Google’s monthly visits. Generative artificial intelligence users skew young, highly educated, and male, particularly for video generation tools, with usage patterns strongly indicating productivity-related activities. Generative artificial intelligence has achieved unprecedentedly rapid global diffusion, reaching almost all economies worldwide within 16 months of ChatGPT’s release. Middle-income economies have disproportionately high adoption of generative artificial intelligence relative to their economic scale, now contribute more than 50 percent of global traffic, while low-income economies contribute less than 1 percent. Regression analysis reveals that income level, share of youth population, digital infrastructure, specialization in high-skill tradable services, English proficiency, and human capital are strongly correlated with higher uptake of generative artificial intelligence. The paper also documents disruptions in online traffic patterns and emphasizes the need for targeted investments in digital infrastructure and skills development to harness the full potential of artificial intelligence.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Citations
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Pathways to the Middle Class in Turkey : How Have Reducing Poverty and Boosting Shared Prosperity Helped?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-04)Turkey's poverty reduction performance in the 2000s has been remarkably consistent. Extreme and moderate poverty have fallen considerably since 2003. Between 2002 and 2011, extreme poverty fell from 13 percent to 5 percent, while moderate poverty halved from 44 percent to 22 percent (respectively, defined using the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia regional poverty lines of 2.5 and 5 USD/PPP). Most of this poverty reduction (89 percent) has been driven by growth, a performance consistent with most countries in Europe and Central Asia. This is substantially different form the recent performance of other regions, such as Latin America, where redistribution contributed to poverty reduction almost four times more than in Turkey. Turkey has also achieved sustained consumption growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population, even during the years of the world recession. Turkey's performance in poverty reduction and increased shared prosperity has been complemented by the systematic expansion of the middle class by 20 percentage points. This paper analyzes the main drivers of poverty reduction, shared prosperity, and changes in inequality in Turkey from 2002 to 2011. The analysis shows that labor markets, demographics, pensions, and social assistance have played a critical role in this process. It further explores some of the mechanisms that have facilitated these changes.Publication Economic Mobility in Europe and Central Asia : Exploring Patterns and Uncovering Puzzles(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015-01)Substantial upward economic mobility in the majority of countries in Europe and Central Asia in the 2000s translated into achievements in reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity. Although factors associated with upward mobility vary significantly by country, education and jobs undoubtedly play an important role in lifting households out of poverty and helping them to improve their living standards. This study finds there is a puzzling mismatch between the objective economic mobility patterns observed in survey data and people's subjective perception of their mobility. A majority of people in the region perceives they are worse off economically than in the past and voice frustration over limited opportunities to improve their lives. This disconnect is partly explained by increased inequality in the region, an increasing sense of unfairness in the processes to move up, and a more marked sense of insecurity and vulnerability. Although the region has been making headway in lifting households out of poverty, ensuring sustainable progress toward poverty reduction and shared prosperity requires policies that promote human capital accumulation, foster job creation, and offer adequate protection to improve households' resilience to shocks.Publication Born with a Silver Spoon : Inequality in Educational Achievement across the World(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015-01)This paper assesses inequality of opportunity in educational achievement using the Human Opportunity Index methodology on data from the Programme for International Student Assessment. The findings suggest that there are large inequalities in learning outcomes as measured by demonstrated proficiency in Programme for International Student Assessment test scores in math, reading, and science. Differences in wealth, parental education, and area of residence explain a bulk of this inequality in most of the countries in the sample. Consistent with what has been documented previously in the literature, the paper also finds a strong and stable correlation between inequality of opportunity and public spending on school education. An exploration of the changes in inequality of opportunity between the 2009 and 2012 rounds of the Programme for International Student Assessment, using parametric and nonparametric techniques, suggests that there has been little progress.Publication Economic Mobility and the Rise of the Latin American Middle Class(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013)After decades of stagnation, the size of Latin America's middle class recently expanded to the point where, for the first time ever, the number of people in poverty is equal to the size of the middle class. This volume investigates the nature, determinants and possible consequences of this remarkable process of social transformation. We propose an original definition of the middle class, tailor-made for Latin America, centered on the concept of economic security and thus a low probability of falling into poverty. Given our definition of the middle class, there are four, not three, classes in Latin America. Sandwiched between the poor and the middle class there lies a large group of people who appear to make ends meet well enough, but do not enjoy the economic security that would be required for membership of the middle class. We call this group the 'vulnerable'. In an almost mechanical sense, these transformations in Latin America reflect both economic growth and declining inequality in over the period. We adopt a measure of mobility that decomposes the 'gainers' and 'losers' in society by social class of each household. The continent has experienced a large amount of churning over the last 15 years, at least 43% of all Latin Americans changed social classes between the mid 1990s and the end of the 2000s. Despite the upward mobility trend, intergenerational mobility, a better proxy for inequality of opportunity, remains stagnant. Educational achievement and attainment remain to be strongly dependent upon parental education levels. Despite the recent growth in pro-poor programs, the middle class has benefited disproportionally from social security transfers and are increasingly opting out from government services. Central to the region's prospects of continued progress will be its ability to harness the new middle class into a new, more inclusive social contract, where the better-off pay their fair share of taxes, and demand improved public services.Publication A Vulnerability Approach to the Definition of the Middle Class(2011-12-01)Measurement of the middle class has recently come to the center of policy debate in middle-income countries as they search for the potential engines of growth and good governance. This debate assumes, first, that there is a meaningful definition of class, and second, that thresholds that define relatively homogeneous groups in terms of pre-determined sociological characteristics can be found empirically. This paper aims at proposing a view of the middle class based on vulnerability to poverty. Following this approach the paper exploits panel data to determine the amount of comparable income -- associated with a low probability of falling into poverty -- which could define the lower bound of the middle class. The paper looks at absolute thresholds, challenging the view that people above the poverty line are actually part of the middle class. The estimated lower threshold is used in cross-section surveys to quantify the size and the evolution of middle classes in Chile, Mexico, and Peru over the past two decades. The first relevant feature relates to the fact that the proposed thresholds lie around the 60th percentile of the distribution. The evidence also shows that the middle class has increased significantly in all three countries, suggesting that a higher number of households face lower probabilities of falling into poverty than they did in the 1990s. There is an important group of people, however, which cannot be defined as middle class from this perspective, but are not eligible for poverty programs according to traditional definitions of poverty.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12)World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.Publication Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.Publication World Development Indicators 2010(World Bank, 2010-04-01)The 1998 edition of world development indicators initiated a series of annual reports on progress toward the International development goals. In the foreword then, World Bank President James D. Wolfensohn recognized that 'by reporting regularly and systematically on progress toward the targets the international community has set for itself, the author will focus attention on the task ahead and make those responsible for advancing the development agenda accountable for results.' The same vision inspired world leaders to commit themselves to the millennium development goals. On this, the 10th anniversary of the millennium declaration, world development indicators 2010 focuses on progress toward the millennium development goals and the challenges of meeting them.Publication Economic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06)World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.Publication Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-02)Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious demographic transition that will shrink its population at one of the highest rates in the world within the next few decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of this demographic transition by using a long-term model, which integrates the demographic projections with social security, fiscal and real economy dimensions in a consistent manner. The simulations suggest that, even under fairly optimistic assumptions, Bulgaria's demographic transition will exert significant fiscal pressures and depress the economic growth in the medium and long term. However, the results also demonstrate that the Government of Bulgaria can play a significant role in mitigating some of these effects. Policies that induce higher labor force participation, promote productivity and technological improvement, and provide better education outcomes are found to counteract the negative consequences of the demographic shift.