Publication: Fragility, Conflict, and Violence in Middle-Income Countries
Loading...
Published
2022-12
ISSN
Date
2023-01-08
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) in middle-income countries is one of today’s major development challenges. It is commonly assumed that low-income countries are more prone to FCV than middle-income ones. Yet over the past decade, more people have been killed from political violence and homicides in middle-income countries than low-income ones. This report outlines the extent of the issue, mapping patterns of violence and conflict in middle-income countries. Drawing on a series of case studies, it looks at how the World Bank has worked on FCV in middle-income countries, what the challenges have been, and what has worked. It puts forward ideas on how the World Bank and other development actors can work more effectively on FCV in middle-income countries.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2022. Fragility, Conflict, and Violence in Middle-Income Countries. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38395 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication A Mixed-Method Review of Cash Transfers and Intimate Partner Violence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2018-08)There is increasing evidence that cash transfer (CT) programs decrease intimate partner violence (IPV). However, little is known about how CTs achieve this impact. We conducted a mixed-method review of studies in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Fourteen quantitative and eight qualitative studies met our inclusion criteria, of which eleven and five, respectively, demonstrated evidence that CTs decrease IPV. We found little support for increases in IPV, with only two studies showing overall mixed or adverse impacts. Drawing on these studies, as well as related bodies of evidence, we developed a program theory proposing three pathways through which CT could impact IPV: (a) economic security and emotional well-being, (b) intra-household conflict, and (c) women's empowerment. The economic security and well-being pathway hypothesizes decreases in IPV, while the other two pathways have ambiguous effects depending on program design features and behavioral responses to program components. Future studies should improve IPV measurement, empirical analysis of program mechanisms, and fill regional gaps. Program framing and complementary activities, including those with the ability to shift intra-household power relations are likely to be important design features for understanding how to maximize and leverage the impact of CTs for reducing IPV, and mitigating potential adverse impacts. Intimate partner violence. Domestic violence. Cash transfers. Women's empowerment.Publication The Role of Nature-based Solutions in Disaster Risk Management in Fragile, Conflict and Violence-Affected Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-20)The World Bank (WB) estimates that, by 2030, up to two-thirds of the global extreme poor will be living in fragile and conflict-affected situations. Of the top 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change, 14 are considered by the WB as fragile and conflict-affected. Households affected by conflict experience greater economic losses and longer recovery time in the aftermath of a disaster. NBS is an umbrella term for a set of interventions that seek to protect, manage, and/or restore natural systems, while addressing multiple development goals such as climate and disaster risk resilience, economic and social prosperity, food security and biodiversity conservation. By providing targeted support and expertise, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is instrumental in overcoming the unique challenges of FCV contexts, ensuring that NBS interventions are not only feasible but also effective in building resilience and stability in these vulnerable regions.Publication A Review of Disaster Risk Management for Fragility, Conflict and Violence Countries in the World Bank Portfolio(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-10-19)This portfolio review, led by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery's (GFDRR) Disaster-FCV Nexus thematic area, aims to contribute to the GFDRR’s overarching objective to help low- and middle-income countries understand and reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change. More specifically, the report aims to i) assess financing trends in World Bank (WBG) Disaster Risk Management (DRM) activities in Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV) countries over the fiscal year (FY) period 2012–2022, ii) understand key challenges for operational teams; identify and disseminate lessons and best practices, and iii) recommend ways to inform the GFDRR’s work on the Disaster FCV Nexus and integrate the nexus into WBG operations. The primary audience for this portfolio review is WBG task teams and managers, but it may also interest current and possible new donors to the GFDRR.Publication Towards 2015 : Spending for Indonesia's Development, Shaping the Prospects of a Middle-Income Country(Washington, DC, 2009-08)This report discusses the future of Indonesia's public expenditures as it enters the 21st century. It contributes to the discussion on Indonesia's spending priorities for the years ahead. These choices will impact the lives of Indonesians, and their opportunities to grow richer and receive better services. The report will contribute to Indonesia s next five-year plan, the RPJM, which will take effect in January 2010. Indonesia has been one of the most successful countries in reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio. Since 1999, when debt levels reached over 90 percent of GDP, Indonesia has reduced its debt levels to just above 30 percent of GDP by the end of 2008. Education spending increased from 11 percent of total government spending in 2001 to 15 percent in 2008. Chapter 1 discusses public spending from 2001 to 2009, including discretionary spending, key sectors, subsidies and decentralization. Chapter 2 analyzes Indonesia's economy in the current (2009) economic downturn. Indonesia is in a position of relative economic strength despite the impact of the global financial crisis. This is largely thanks to its broad-based growth that has avoided over-reliance on exports. The share of output that Indonesia exports is the smallest of the major Southeast Asian economies. Chapter 3 presents the future of Indonesia's fiscal growth to 2015. Notwithstanding noteworthy achievements over the past decade, Indonesia continues to face significant economic and social challenges, and major gaps remain in many areas of public expenditure. However, sustained fiscal consolidation and governance reforms, as well as resilience in the face of the global crisis, leave Indonesia well placed to push forward with sustained poverty reduction. Strategic use of public resources and continued growth could see swift improvement in economic and social outcomes over the coming five years.Publication International Finance Corporation Additionality in Middle-Income Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-05-03)Additionality is a core feature of private sector development finance institutions (DFIs). It is the unique contribution that a DFI or a multilateral/ bilateral bank brings to a private investment project that is not offered by commercial sources of finance. The key idea is that the investment project should add value without crowding out private sector activity. Identifying and articulating project additionality is particularly important in middle- income countries (MICs) since financial markets in MICs are more developed, and private investment far exceeds official development assistance. This evaluation report examines the relevance and effectiveness of IFC’s approach to additionality in MICs and seeks to explain the factors that contribute to or constrain its realization. While the evaluation focuses on IFC’s additionality on the level of the project, it also applies the lens of country and sector context to draw additional learning. Thus, it considers whether additionality can occur beyond the level of a single project—for example, at the country and sector level. Both at the project level and beyond the project, the evaluation derives lessons and offers recommendations on how IFC can further strengthen its additionality.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-06)Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.Publication Green Technologies: Decarbonizing Development in East Asia and Pacific(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-19)The East Asia and Pacific region is helping the world decarbonize and is encouraging the domestic adoption of renewables. But there is an imbalance: while the region’s innovation and investment improve global access to green technologies, its own emissions continue to grow because of the reluctance to penalize carbon-intensive practices. The disparity between domestic supply and demand spills over into international trade, provoking measures by other countries that limit access to markets and technologies. "Green Technologies: Decarbonizing Development in East Asia and Pacific" argues that deeper reform of the region’s own policies will encourage the domestic diffusion of cleaner technologies and may also foster greater international cooperation—on climate as well as on innovation and trade in green goods. The book proposes a framework to guide policy on green technology development and diffusion. It will be of interest to policy makers, businesses, and researchers working at the intersection of economics and environmental policy.Publication Good Practice Note on Dam Safety(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10)The objective of this good practice note (GPN) on dam safety is to provide additional guidance to World Bank staff on the application of relevant requirements under the environmental and social framework (ESF). This GPN provides guidance on using a risk management approach to the application of the dam safety requirements. The guidance contained in this note is designed to enhance the quality of practice without creating new requirements for the application of the ESF. The GPN provides guidance on compliance requirements, a risk management approach to dam safety, risk analysis tools, quality of information and capacity, application to World Bank operations, and procedural aspects. The GPN pertains to: (a) construction of new dams or dams under construction (DUC) under investment project financing (IPF); (b) rehabilitation of existing dams under IPF; and (c) existing dams or DUC that are not financed under IPF, on which the project relies or may rely.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-01-10)Global growth is projected to decelerate sharply, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades. Further adverse shocks could push the global economy into recession. Small states are especially vulnerable to such shocks because of the reliance on external trade and financing, limited economic diversification, elevated debt, and susceptibility to natural disasters. Against this backdrop, it is critical that EMDE policy makers ensure that any fiscal support is focused on vulnerable groups, that inflation expectations remain well anchored, and that financial systems continue to be resilient. Urgent global and national efforts are also needed to mitigate the risks of global recession and debt distress in EMDEs, and to support a major increase in EMDE investment.