Publication: Chad: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update
Loading...
Published
2018-07-13
ISSN
Date
2018-10-07
Editor(s)
Abstract
Following the restructuring of the debt to Glencore and the progress made in clearing external arrears, debt vulnerabilities declined significantly, and the external risk rating has been upgraded to high. The debt sustainability analysis (DSA) shows that all debt burden indicators, except the debt-service-to-revenue ratio which has minor and temporary breaches, are below their respective thresholds in the baseline from 2018 onwards. The debt-service-to-revenue ratio, falls below the threshold in 2019 and remains so throughout the projection period, except for minor breaches in 2020 and 2021. Overall, total public debt vulnerabilities are elevated although the present value (PV) of the public debt-to- gross domestic product (GDP) ratio remains on a downward trajectory. The fixed primary balance scenario, which keeps the primary deficit-to-GDP ratio unchanged from 2017, shows the debt ratio declining at a slower pace throughout the forecast period, further highlighting the need to adhere to the prudent fiscal policy framework underpinning the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported program. Adoption and implementation of an appropriate debt management strategy, while making progress in economic diversification will further reduce vulnerabilities.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“International Development Association; International Monetary Fund. 2018. Chad: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2018 Update. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30522 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Liberia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01)Liberia remains at moderate risk of debt distress, though care and precision in implementing its ambitious infrastructure program will be critical. Under the baseline scenario, which reflects staff’s interpretation of the authorities’ stated plans, Liberia will remain at moderate risk of debt distress but move closer to thresholds that mark a high probability of debt distress. Adverse risks to the baseline are also significant. Staff discussed an alternative reform scenario that would ease the risk of debt distress while achieving roughly the same level of spending. The reform scenario assumes that all external financing would be on concessional terms and the amount of additional borrowing would be strictly controlled and supplemented with domestic resource mobilization. Such steps would be beneficial not only to improve the safety margin for the preservation of debt and macroeconomic stability, but also to sustain broad-based growth over the forecast horizon.Publication Tuvalu(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01)The DSA concludes that Tuvalu remains at a high risk of debt distress, in line with the 2016 DSA conclusion. External debt has breached several thresholds as of 2017, including for the present value of debt-to-GDP. Risks to debt sustainability remain high due to elevated current spending, a projected decline in fishing revenue and grants, and risks of natural disasters. A persistent fiscal deficit is projected to deplete fiscal buffers and cause the present value of debt-to-GDP to breach its indicative threshold in the long run. This underscores the importance of containing the fiscal deficit and maintaining buffers.Publication The Gambia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01)An updated debt sustainability analysis (DSA) indicates that The Gambia is currently in external debt distress and that public debt is unsustainable. Both external and domestic debt are very high, and a significant pipeline of already-contracted loans poses risks to solvency. External debt stock indicators have deteriorated since the March 2018 DSA, and all five external debt burden indicators breach their indicative thresholds by large margins and for an extended period in the passive scenario and in the active (baseline) scenario. The stress test results illustrate the country’s high vulnerability to shocks, total public debt is expected to remain elevated throughout the projection period, rollover risks associated with the short maturity of domestic debt are high, and contingent liabilities related to SOE debt pose additional risks. Furthermore, the sustained primary surpluses needed to reduce public debt would be politically and socially challenging given The Gambia’s substantial development needs. New borrowing would need to be on highly concessional terms and reserved for the very highest priority projects for which grant-financing is not available. The government should also refrain from offering any guarantees. An illustrative scenario shows how debt relief (comprising a deferral of principal due to pluri-lateral, bilateral official and private creditors and a softening of the terms of the already contracted loans)—complementing the implementation of a sound medium-term fiscal framework and debt strategy—could be instrumental in restoring debt sustainability.Publication Togo(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01)Togo’s risk of external debt distress continues to be moderate with heightened overall risk of debt distress—unchanged from the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) published in April 2017. Alternative scenarios and stress tests suggest, however, that external public debt could accumulate rapidly, pushing Togo above the external debt-distress threshold for the present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-to-GDP. Togo’s domestic public debt burden remains high and reflects among others, persistently high deficits, materialized contingent liabilities and arrears accumulation. Baseline projections show that Togo’s PV of total PPG debt (external plus domestic) -to-GDP ratio will reach the 38 percent benchmark by 2025, down from 73.1 percent in 2017 -with the bulk constituting domestic debt obligations. This analysis highlights the need for sustained fiscal consolidation, improved debt management, and macroeconomic policies to reduce the level of public debt to prudent levels over the medium term.Publication Dominica(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10-01)Dominica continues to be at high risk of debt distress. However, hurricane Maria in September 2017 caused severe social hardship and deterioration of fiscal and external balances, weakening sustainability. In addition, Dominica’s debt carrying capacity as measured by the three-year CPIA average declined. Thus, setting public and publicly guaranteed total and external debt on a declining path would require prudent and efficient fiscal policies that safeguard fiscal space for social relief and reconstruction investment. A fiscal consolidation plan is needed after recovery takes hold to sustain reconstruction investment. Donor grant mobilization is key to minimize the debt burden. Main risks to the debt sustainability outlook include sudden stop in citizenship-by-investment (CBI) program revenues, financial instability from weakened balance sheets, and recurrent natural disasters.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Mining Royalties : A Global Study of Their Impact on Investors, Government, and Civil Society(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006)Mineral sector regulatory and fiscal systems have been undergoing major reforms across the globe. This book focuses on information and analysis relating to mineral royalties. It provides a general discussion of the concepts behind mining taxation, a guide to royalties, examples of royalty calculations and the ways in which these interact with other forms of taxation, as well as financial effects on investments under varying conditions. Primary information includes royalty legislation from over forty nations. The book discusses implications for investors and governments of various tax regimes and provides specific country case examples. A chapter is included on transparency, governance, and management of revenue streams. The appendices, in the second volume, contain brief summaries and selected statutes relating to royalties in a broad cross-section of nations around the world; sample spreadsheets of the results of mine models that were analyzed; and examples of administrative and distributional approaches to collecting royalties.Publication International Financial Reporting Standards : A Practical Guide, 5th Edition(World Bank, 2009)The publication of this fifth edition coincides with the convergence in accounting standards that has been a feature of the international landscape since the global financial crisis of 1998. The events of that year prompted several international organizations, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, to launch a cooperative initiative to strengthen the global financial architecture and to seek a longer-term solution to the lack of transparency in financial information. A conscious decision has been made to focus on the needs of executives and financial analysts in the private and public sectors who might not have a strong accounting background. This publication summarizes each standard so managers and analysts can quickly obtain a broad overview of the key issues. Detailed discussion of certain topics has been excluded to maintain the overall objective of providing a useful tool to managers and financial analysts. In addition to the short summaries, most chapters contain basic examples that emphasize the practical application of some key concepts in a particular standard. This text provides the tools to enable an executive without a technical accounting background to: (1) participate in an informed manner in discussions relating to the appropriateness or application of a particular standard in a given situation, and (2) evaluate the effect that the application of the principles of a given standard will have on the financial results and position of a division or of an entire enterprise.Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-29)Commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 percent overall this year, reflecting subdued global economic activity, elevated trade tensions and policy uncertainty, ample global supply of oil, and weather-related supply shocks. In 2026, commodity prices are forecast to fall by a further 7 percent, a fourth consecutive year of decline, as global growth remains sluggish and the oil market oversupplied. Energy price movements are envisaged to continue contributing to global disinflation in 2026. Metals and minerals prices are expected to remain stable in 2026, while agricultural prices are projected to edge down, primarily due to strong supply conditions. Precious metals prices are expected to rise another 5 percent, after a historically large, investment-driven rally of about 40 percent in 2025. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted to the downside. Key downside risks include weaker-than-expected global growth, a longer-than-assumed period of economic policy uncertainty, and additional oversupply of oil. Upside risks include intensifying geopolitical tensions, the market impact of additional oil sanctions, supply reductions stemming from additional trade restrictions, unfavorable weather conditions, faster-than-expected rollout of new data centers. Commodity price volatility in recent years has revived interest in supply management via international commodity agreements. Historical experience, however, shows that the most effective policy is to promote diversification, innovation, transparency, and market-based pricing—measures that build lasting resilience to commodity price volatility.