Publication: Catastrophe Risk Pricing : An Empirical Analysis
Loading...
Published
2008-11
ISSN
Date
2012-06-01
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The price of catastrophe risks is viewed by many to be too high and/or too volatile. Catastrophe risk practitioners point out that, contrary to standard insurance, such as automobile insurance, catastrophe re-insurance is exposed to infrequent but potentially very large losses. It thus requires keeping a large amount of capital in hand, generating a cost of capital to be added to the long-term expected loss. This paper pulls together data from about 250 catastrophe bonds issued on the capital markets to investigate how catastrophe risks are priced. The analysis reveals that catastrophe risk prices are a function of the underlying peril, the expected loss, the wider capital market cycle, and the risk profile of the transaction. The market-based catastrophe risk price is estimated to be 2.69 times the expected loss over the long term, that is, the long-term average multiple is 2.69. When adjusted from the market cycle, the multiple is estimated at 2.33. Peak perils like US Wind are shown to have a much higher multiple than that of non-peak perils like Japan Wind, revealing the diversification of credit from the market.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Lane, Morton; Mahul, Olivier. 2008. Catastrophe Risk Pricing : An Empirical Analysis. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4765. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6900 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08)Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.Publication The Evolution of Local Participatory Democracy in Nepal(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05)Nepal is, according to its constitution, among the world’s most decentralized countries, with a long and complex tradition of local-level public participation. This paper traces the evolution of Nepal’s modern participatory institutions, examining the extent to which they are “induced” by external interventions versus being “organically” rooted in indigenous practices. The paper identifies three broad phases: an initial focus on participation in project implementation; a subsequent phase that expanded citizen engagement; and a third phase of citizen empowerment, culminating in the 2015 federal constitution, which granted unprecedented local autonomy. The analysis yields five key findings. First, over the past 50 years, successive reforms have progressively expanded opportunities for citizens to influence local decision-making. Second, these reforms have integrated traditional participatory mechanisms into formal institutions of local government. Third, although central-level initiatives exist, most participatory platforms continue to operate at the local level. Fourth, the federal constitution has created a new landscape of local democracy, embedding autonomy and accountability. Fifth, although they are still valued in many ethnic and territorial communities, traditional participatory practices are gradually disappearing. The paper concludes by offering policy recommendations to help donor agencies and governments strengthen Nepal’s democratic trajectory. It argues that effective interventions should build on Nepal’s deep participatory traditions while recognizing the constitutional reality of far-reaching local autonomy.Publication Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.Publication Closing the Gender Gap in Entrepreneurship: Overcoming Challenges in Law and Practice for Female Entrepreneurs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)Despite significant strides toward gender equality, women around the world continue to encounter systemic obstacles that hinder their entrepreneurial success. This paper systematically reviews the literature on the barriers female entrepreneurs face and the solutions proposed to overcome these challenges. It discusses institutional factors, financial factors, human capital factors, and social and cultural factors. The literature overview is complemented by a series of stylized facts that illustrate how overcoming some of these existing barriers is correlated with improved women’s entrepreneurship and female labor force participation, drawing on the World Bank’s Women, Business and the Law database as well as the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys. The findings underscore the need for creating an enabling environment where women can thrive as entrepreneurs.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Catastrophe Risk Financing in Developing Countries : Principles for Public Intervention(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2009)Public intervention in catastrophe insurance markets, supported by the donor community and the World Bank, should be country specific. Low-income countries, where the domestic non-life insurance market is undeveloped, should focus in the short term on the development of sovereign catastrophe insurance solutions and the promotion of public goods related to risk market infrastructure. These countries are usually not mature enough for the promotion of catastrophe insurance pools for private homeowners. Middle-income countries, where the domestic non-life insurance market is more developed, should help the private insurance industry offer market-based catastrophe insurance solutions to homeowners and to small and medium enterprises, including the agricultural sector. This book offers a framework, with lessons drawn from recent experience, guiding principles for public intervention and potential roles for donors and International Financial Institutions (IFIs). These lessons are expected to be used in developing affordable, effective and sustainable country-specific catastrophe insurance programs.Publication Financial Sector Assessment Program Update - Albania : Insurance Core Principles(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-02)This assessment of Albania's compliance with the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) Insurance Core Principles (ICP) was carried out as part of the 2013 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). Although this is the second FSAP for Albania, this is the first external assessment of Albania's compliance with the ICPs. The Albanian Financial Supervisory Authority (AFSA) has all the responsibility for insurance regulation and supervision in Albania. This assessment is based upon information made available to the assessor in preparation for and during the November 2013 FSAP mission. The AFSA contributed its self-assessment and a detailed update thereof at the individual criterion level. Further sectoral information (including responses to a questionnaire sent out in advance) was provided before and during the mission. Comprehensive documentation, including all relevant laws, by-laws and regulations were: (i) available on the AFSA's web-site; or (ii) provided to the assessor by the AFSA's management.Publication Financial Sector Assessment Program - Republic of Korea : Insurance Core Principles(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-05)This report is an assessment of Korea's compliance with International Association of Insurance Supervisors' Insurance Core Principles (ICPs), as adopted in October 2011. The review was carried out as part of the 2013 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) assessment of Korea, and was based on the regulatory framework in place, the supervisory practices employed, and other conditions as they existed in April 2013. The assessment was carried out by Craig Thorburn, Lead Insurance Specialist, Non-Bank Financial Institutions Group, Capital Markets Practice, World Bank. The assessment is based solely on the laws, regulations, and other supervisory requirements and practices that were in place at the time of assessment.Publication Insurance Risk Transfer and Categorization of Reinsurance Contracts(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-12)Despite the existence of numerous quantitative approaches to the categorization of financial reinsurance contracts, often insurance regulators may find the practical implementation of the task to be technically challenging. This research paper develops a simple, affordable, and robust regulatory method that can help insurance regulators to categorize financial reinsurance contracts as reinsurance or financial instruments. By reviewing real examples of different categorization methods, this paper explains how the proposed method standardizes such categorization. It also summarizes the existing pertinent literature on the subject with the view to helping insurance regulators to first apply some simple indicators to flag the main issues with financial reinsurance contracts that may need further reviews. Having identified the suspicious reinsurance contracts, supervisors may consider several solutions provided by the authors and, in some cases, requiring further quantitative testing of risk transfer contracts for categorization purposes, supervisors may also consider adopting the Standardized Expected Reinsurer's Deficit approach to contract testing presented in this paper. The approach advocates the use of a simple standardized stochastic method that would allow market participants and regulators to perform robust quantitative tests quickly and at an affordable cost. Besides addressing the obvious drawbacks of the "10-10" test, the proposed alternative method allows a great reduction in the technical challenges posed to the users of the Expected Reinsurer's Deficit approach based on full stochastic models with only a minimum loss of predictive accuracy.Publication Financial and Fiscal Instruments for Catastrophe Risk Management : Addressing Losses From Flood Hazards In Central Europe (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia)(World Bank, 2011-07-01)This report addresses the large flood exposures of Central Europe and proposes efficient financial and risk transfer mechanisms to mitigate fiscal losses from natural catastrophes.. The report is primarily addressed to the governments of the region which should build into their fiscal planning, the necessary contingent funding mechanisms, based on their exposures. While there exist pan-European mechanisms such as the EU Solidarity Fund to help EU members fund mega disasters, these only kick in at extremely high loss levels. Given these issues, the Governments of the V-4 countries should consider it a priority to set up risk transfer mechanisms to reduce fiscal volatility following natural catastrophes. The private sector insurance markets in the V-4 countries appear adequate and reflect rather high levels of penetration in the economy and in the housing sector. Economic and fiscal analyses based on global data also show that countries with insurance mechanisms and markets show a stronger GDP recovery path and lower fiscal deficits following a disaster. However, the V-4 countries, having a common hazard of flood, are in a unique position to develop highly cost effective flood insurance mechanisms. As countries in general are more concerned with supplemental fiscal resources rather than individual property losses, the governments of the V-4 countries can consider parametric style contracts. Nevertheless, risk transfer or insurance mechanisms are not the only types that need to be considered. The analysis in this report is meant to show, besides the financial mechanisms that would be beneficial for risk management, what large catastrophe exposures exist and their relation to government finances and macroeconomic measures. Following a final phase of feasibility analysis and market testing, the V-4 countries should thus consider establishing a multi-country insurance pool to provide fast emergency funding after disasters.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Design Thinking for Social Innovation(2010-07)Designers have traditionally focused on enchancing the look and functionality of products.Publication Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy(Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2003)Most wars are now civil wars. Even though international wars attract enormous global attention, they have become infrequent and brief. Civil wars usually attract less attention, but they have become increasingly common and typically go on for years. This report argues that civil war is now an important issue for development. War retards development, but conversely, development retards war. This double causation gives rise to virtuous and vicious circles. Where development succeeds, countries become progressively safer from violent conflict, making subsequent development easier. Where development fails, countries are at high risk of becoming caught in a conflict trap in which war wrecks the economy and increases the risk of further war. The global incidence of civil war is high because the international community has done little to avert it. Inertia is rooted in two beliefs: that we can safely 'let them fight it out among themselves' and that 'nothing can be done' because civil war is driven by ancestral ethnic and religious hatreds. The purpose of this report is to challenge these beliefs.Publication Governance Matters VIII : Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996–2008(2009-06-01)This paper reports on the 2009 update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project, covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2008: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. These aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance, taken from 35 data sources provided by 33 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector and NGO experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The authors also explicitly report the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. They find that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons as well as monitoring progress over time. The aggregate indicators, together with the disaggregated underlying indicators, are available at www.govindicators.org.Publication Governance Matters IV : Governance Indicators for 1996-2004(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-06)The authors present the latest update of their aggregate governance indicators, together with new analysis of several issues related to the use of these measures. The governance indicators measure the following six dimensions of governance: (1) voice and accountability; (2) political instability and violence; (3) government effectiveness; (4) regulatory quality; (5) rule of law, and (6) control of corruption. They cover 209 countries and territories for 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. They are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 37 separate data sources constructed by 31 organizations. The authors present estimates of the six dimensions of governance for each period, as well as margins of error capturing the range of likely values for each country. These margins of error are not unique to perceptions-based measures of governance, but are an important feature of all efforts to measure governance, including objective indicators. In fact, the authors give examples of how individual objective measures provide an incomplete picture of even the quite particular dimensions of governance that they are intended to measure. The authors also analyze in detail changes over time in their estimates of governance; provide a framework for assessing the statistical significance of changes in governance; and suggest a simple rule of thumb for identifying statistically significant changes in country governance over time. The ability to identify significant changes in governance over time is much higher for aggregate indicators than for any individual indicator. While the authors find that the quality of governance in a number of countries has changed significantly (in both directions), they also provide evidence suggesting that there are no trends, for better or worse, in global averages of governance. Finally, they interpret the strong observed correlation between income and governance, and argue against recent efforts to apply a discount to governance performance in low-income countries.Publication Government Matters III : Governance Indicators for 1996-2002(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-08)The authors present estimates of six dimensions of governance covering 199 countries and territories for four time periods: 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002. These indicators are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 25 separate data sources constructed by 18 different organizations. The authors assign these individual measures of governance to categories capturing key dimensions of governance and use an unobserved components model to construct six aggregate governance indicators in each of the four periods. They present the point estimates of the dimensions of governance as well as the margins of errors for each country for the four periods. The governance indicators reported here are an update and expansion of previous research work on indicators initiated in 1998 (Kaufmann, Kraay, and Zoido-Lobat 1999a,b and 2002). The authors also address various methodological issues, including the interpretation and use of the data given the estimated margins of errors.