Publication:
Risk and the Extent of Insurance

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (755.06 KB)
204 downloads
Published
2013-11-12
ISSN
Date
2013-12-02
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper proposes measures of income risk that households face, and of the extent of insurance effectively delivered by the various coping mechanisms those households use to minimize the consequence of that risk by (1) contrasting the expected utility of consumption an individual has with the utility that she would have from consuming her income in each period, adjusted to account for the price of these coping mechanisms; (2) detailing the steps necessary to apply these measures to panel data of household income and consumption; and (3) measuring income risk, consumption risk, and insurance using the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS). Expected consumption represents on average 65 percent of the expected income for the IFLS households, suggesting households remain willing to forgo a non-negligible amount of consumption in order to smooth it. Comparing risk and insurance across households highlights geography and education as key determinants of the cost of risk for households.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Genicot, Garance; Ligon, Ethan. 2013. Risk and the Extent of Insurance. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16332 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Vulnerability and Safety Nets in Lao PDR
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-12) Fenton, Nina; Lindelow, Magnus
    Lao PDR has experienced high levels of economic growth in recent years and the incidence of poverty has fallen dramatically since the 1990s. Yet, this report shows that Lao households continue to be highly vulnerable to regular seasonal fluctuations, as well as agricultural shocks and natural disasters. The report also highlights the importance of health shocks, injury and death for household welfare. Households adopt a variety of strategies to cope with these shocks, but in many cases are unable to fully smooth consumption, with negative short and long term consequences. Overall, the report points to a number of important vulnerable groups. The chronic poor in remote rural areas, including ethnic minority groups, remain highly vulnerable to seasonal fluctuations and natural disasters. However, households in urban areas, particularly the poor and near-poor, are vulnerable to future increases in food prices if they are not accompanied by increases in real wages. Moreover, as the Lao economy develops, more households will rely on off-farm work or migrant remittances, making them increasingly vulnerable to domestic and global macro-shocks. Finally, particular groups, including children, women, the disabled and the elderly are likely to be particularly badly affected by these shocks. The report goes on to discuss the potential value of social safety nets. Safety nets can reduce poverty and alleviate suffering for households who are unable to fully smooth their consumption after a shock. But effective safety nets don't just contribute to reducing poverty in the short term; they can also prevent long term poverty traps from arising (e.g. due to households being forced to sell productive assets, withdraw children from school, or reduce consumption below nutritionally adequate levels), and enable households to pursue riskier but more productive livelihood strategies. The report reveals important gaps in current policies and programs and suggests some potential directions towards implementing a comprehensive and institutionalized safety net program in Lao PDR. This will require substantial investments, not only to finance the actual programs, but also to develop the required capacity and knowledge at both local and central levels. While there are no easy solutions, reaching consensus on priorities and policy options for addressing vulnerability in Laos is essential if recent progress in poverty reduction and economic growth is to be sustained and deepened.
  • Publication
    Income Risk, Coping Strategies, and Safety Nets
    (World Bank, 2002-09-01) Dercon, Stefan
    Poor rural and urban households in developing countries face substantial risks, which they handle with risk-management and risk-coping strategies, including self-insurance through savings and informal insurance mechanisms. Despite these mechanisms, however, vulnerability to poverty linked to risk remains high. This article reviews the literature on poor households use of risk-management and risk-coping strategies. It identifies the constraints on their effectiveness and discusses policy options. It shows that risk and lumpiness limit the opportunities to use assets as insurance, that entry constraints limit the usefulness of income diversification, and that informal risk-sharing provides only limited protection, leaving some of the poor exposed to very severe negative shocks. Public safety nets are likely to be beneficial, but their impact is sometimes limited, and they may have negative externalities on households that are not covered. Collecting more information on households vulnerability to poverty through both quantitative and qualitative methods can help inform policy.
  • Publication
    Social Protection in Pakistan : Managing Household Risks and Vulnerability
    (Washington, DC, 2007-10-18) World Bank
    The report is the result of an inter-institutional collaborative effort between the Government of Pakistan, civil society, and international donors. This report finds that while Pakistan implements a wide array of social protection programs, the effectiveness of these programs could be significantly improved. The report finds that social protection programs in Pakistan face important constraints in terms of coverage, targeting, and implementation, and inability to respond to vulnerability, which will need to be overcome in order that they can more effectively protect the poor. The report suggests a two-pronged approach for social protection reform: (i) improving the ability of safety net programs to reach the poor, promote exit from poverty, and respond to natural disasters; coupled with (ii) a longer term approach for strengthening social security. Considering social protection as a system rather than a collection of different programs would allow the government to curtail fragmentation, improve the quality of social protection spending, and have higher impact. Given fiscal constraints, the report suggests that coverage expansion first exploits the opportunity for efficiency improvements in current programs, through better targeting and reduction in duplication and overlap. However, the decline in real spending on the two main safety net programs is worrisome. It is therefore welcome that the government is considering how best to ensure adequate yet fiscally affordable spending on safety nets as part of its draft social protection strategy.
  • Publication
    Transfers, Diversification and Household Risk Strategies : Experimental Evidence with Lessons for Climate Change Adaptation
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04) Macours, Karen; Premand, Patrick; Vakis, Renos
    While climate change is likely to increase weather risks in many developing countries, there is little evidence on effective policies to facilitate adaptation. This paper presents experimental evidence on a program in rural Nicaragua aimed at improving households' risk-management through income diversification. The intervention targeted agricultural households exposed to weather shocks related to changes in rainfall and temperature patterns. It combined a conditional cash transfer with vocational training or a productive investment grant. The authors identify the relative impact of each complementary package based on randomized assignment, and analyze how impacts vary by exposure to exogenous drought shocks. The results show that both complementary interventions provide full protection against drought shocks two years after the end of the intervention. Households that received the productive investment grant also had higher average consumption levels. The complementary interventions led to diversification of economic activities and better protection from shocks compared to beneficiaries of the basic conditional cash transfer and control households. These results show that combining safety nets with productive interventions can help households manage future weather risks and promote longer-term program impacts.
  • Publication
    Social Protection and Labor at the World Bank, 2000-08
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2009) Holzmann, Robert
    In autumn 2000, the World Bank's board approved the first ever strategy for the new social protection and labor sector, and in January 2001, the sector published the strategy. The subtitle, from safety net to springboard, indicated the World Bank's move toward a broader understanding of poverty reduction and the relationship of risk to poverty. Because risks and access to appropriate risk management instruments matter for poverty reduction and development, the strategy proposed a new conceptual framework - social risk management that will review and reform existing interventions and propose new ones to better assist the vulnerable in addressing the many risks to which they are exposed. After seven years of implementation, it was time to review the strategy and work of the areas of selected core competence: labor market, social insurance (in particular pensions), social safety nets, social funds, disability and development, and risk and vulnerability analysis. The strategic position, its development, and the results by the sector since the launch of its strategy were reviewed and presented to the World Bank's committee on development effectiveness at the end of 2007. The review included a stocktaking of the analytical work and lending operations in each of the six core competence areas. The result of this review and the six stocktaking papers are presented in this publication. They reveal the progress that the World Bank has made in understanding the importance of social risk management for poverty reduction and the critical contribution it makes to equitable and sustainable growth.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Direct and Indirect Impacts of Transport Mobility on Access to Jobs: Evidence from South Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-12) Iimi, Atsushi
    Access to jobs is essential for economic growth. In Africa, unemployment rates are notably high. This paper reexamines the relationship between transport mobility and labor market outcomes, with a particular focus on the direct and indirect effects of transport connectivity. As predicted by theory, wages are influenced by the level of commuting deterrence. Generally, higher earnings are associated with longer commute times and/or higher commuting costs. Local accessibility is also important, especially for individuals with time constraints. Both direct and indirect impacts are found to be significant in South Africa, where job accessibility has been challenging since the end of apartheid. For the direct impact, the wage elasticity associated with commuting costs is significant. Returns on commute are particularly high for women. Local accessibility to socioeconomic facilities, such as shops and health services, is also found to have a significant impact, consistent with the concept of mobility of care. To enhance employment, therefore, it is crucial to connect people not only to job locations but also to various socioeconomic points of interest, such as markets and hospitals, in an integrated manner. This integration will enable individuals to spend more time working and commuting longer distances.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    Taxes, Spending, and Equity: International Patterns and Lessons for Developing Countries
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-17) Wai-Poi, Matthew; Sosa, Mariano; Bachas, Pierre
    Taxes and public spending underpin the basic administration of government and finance the human capital and infrastructure investments needed for economic growth. They can also have a significant and immediate impact on poverty and inequality. The question of how public finance can support longer-term growth objectives while promoting equity has become even more important in recent years, given the high fiscal deficits and debt levels most countries emerged with in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These included the increasing cost of debt and the need to restart environmentally sustainable growth while helping households address the learning losses and other social scars caused by the pandemic. This paper examines the global evidence on which households pay which taxes and who benefits from what spending, and critically, the net effect on different households across the income distribution. The aim is to identify the patterns and lessons that emerge for designing progressive fiscal policies. A global dataset of 96 countries is assembled, spanning all regions of the world and all national income levels, grounded in the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) approach to fiscal incidence.
  • Publication
    Niger Country Environmental Analysis
    (Washington DC, 2023-03-23) World Bank
    Niger is a fragile country, marked by a poorly diversified economy and extreme poverty. Climate change, rapid demographic growth, and weak governance are major threats to Niger's growth. These changes have led to human losses, decreased soil productivity, and increased competition for access to resources. Moreover, many rural communities have grappled with a land tenure system with often unclear and overlapping rights, a lack of land use classification and registry, and an absence of monitoring and enforcing by local institutions. It is important to note that the rapid population growth and the recent COVID pandemic have put additional pressure on food security and natural resources. Natural capital is crucial for the Nigeriens’ livelihoods and food security. Degradation of cropland and pastureland is a key problem in Niger. This Country Environmental Analysis (CEA) aims to analyze critical environmental challenges that threaten sustainable economic growth in Niger and to propose actions to address them. It focuses on three government priorities that require in-depth analysis and immediate response: land degradation, deforestation and forest degradation, and climate change.
  • Publication
    Working with Smallholders
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-09-18) International Finance Corporation
    A number of global trends, such as concurrent rises in incomes and urbanization, are driving the increased consumption of meat, dairy, and biofuels. Meeting the demand for products will require considerable increases in global production, particularly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, where smallholder farming predominates and yields remain low. At the same time, it will be essential to promote improved food quality, to reduce negative impacts on health, while additional initiatives must address how to reduce food losses. Climate change is bringing further stressors. These challenges also present opportunities to help smallholder farmers boost their productivity by facilitating better access to inputs, technology, knowledge, financing, and markets. Agribusinesses are increasingly working with smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries to secure agricultural commodities, which help to boost rural incomes and economic growth. Smallholders also represent a growing market for farm inputs, information, and financial services. 'Working with Smallholders: A Handbook for Firms Building Sustainable Supply Chains' shows agribusinesses how to develop more sustainable, resilient, and productive supply chains and the substantial impact of doing so on development. The book compiles innovative solutions and cutting-edge ideas to meet the challenges, and illustrating these points through a variety of case studies from initiatives around the world. This third edition builds on the lessons learned and provides updates in leading trends and technologies from those provided in the second edition published in 2018 including the potential for digital technologies and increased demands for sustainable farming. Although written principally to outline training and assistance needs and opportunities for the private sector -- whether in high-income or low- and middle-income markets -- the handbook may be useful to the staffs of governmental or nongovernmental agricultural development programs working with smallholders, as well as to academic and research institutions.